Sage BJ simulator

this software seems a bit unrealistic...

just seems that streaks occur much more frequently than in reality...

normally there'll be a losing streak of 3-6 followed by a similiar winning streak with hardly any exceptions...

my experience in casinos and study of the probability of streaks tells me this software is totally unrealistic...

the odds of losing 5 in a row are about once every 120 hands....
in this game it seems that 5 in a row either way will happen at least twice as much if not quite a bit more...

if anyone has used this software and has noticed the same problem please tell me....btw ive played thousands of hands on this and its always the same, streaky beyond belief...

it seems like the dealer gets too many 21s, doesnt bust off 3-6 nearly as much as probability says it should, player seems to pull too many pictures, and dealer seems to get double the blackjacks the player does, in addition to getting a blackjack off an ace nearly everytime....insurance in this software seems to be a great bet...

maybe i downloaded some alpha version....

im not complaining...these are just observations that ive made that seem to suggest bad programing

i still make in the game though ;)

I haven't really noticed those things. Of course, I see all the things you've mentioned in real casinos all the time, so if it does happen with the Sage Software it does not surprise me.

this software seems a bit unrealistic...

just seems that streaks occur much more frequently than in reality...

normally there'll be a losing streak of 3-6 followed by a similiar winning streak with hardly any exceptions...

Streaks of 3-6 are not unusual. I suspect you have selective memory.

the odds of losing 5 in a row are about once every 120 hands....
in this game it seems that 5 in a row either way will happen at least twice as much if not quite a bit more...

The odds of the next 5 fair coin flips coming up heads is 1 in 32. Where do you get 1 in 120? The odds of 5 losses (no ties) in BJ = approx. 1-.48^5 = 1 in 39.

if anyone has used this software and has noticed the same problem please tell me....

No problem here.

btw ive played thousands of hands on this and its always the same, streaky beyond belief...

Welcome to the world of BJ! Just wait until you get into a casino with real money!

i do play for real money, and i do very well thx...

it just seems too streaky to me....far from what i generally experience in a casino...(and i have played 'long term' on land)

3-6 happen frequently, sure, but im mean pretty much every run is 3 or more...i hardly ever get choppy play (or short streaks)...

i do like the software, its just that i know for a fact, that the dealer gets BJ more than the 30% he should off an ace (well the land casinos seem to pull that off too),

the other annoying thing is the number of times i bust of my first card off 12...

i get a 10 more than 60% of the time...

i experience nearly all of the outcomes mathematically that BJ has too offer and what one would expect after playing long term,

however it just seems (sure, it could be my selective memory, but dont forget sage records results...) the expected outcomes of a normal BJ game...

dont get me wrong, im stilling beating it, but it requires a different approach than in real life (i wanted a sim close to what i experience)

i just get fustrated....must be a computer thing, i accept all real life results, i just swear at and cant believe some of the things i experience in this sim (good & bad)....

and about the frequency of streaks,

1 in 32 not far off 5/120 when the edge is taken into account

it was taken as number of hands....

if i mistyped, i meant one 5 losing streak every 120 hands...

iev been up 36hrs my minds all over the place...

ive been playing successfully for quite a while now, and have gone through that stage of losing i mean using negative progressions, where a bad streak will bust you...

i can tell you using martingale to about 7th bet and d'alembert 1-10, it does take a bit to bust....normally youll make quite a bit before that bad run comes...but when it does come i hope yourv left th table,

thinking back, i used to be able to quite often make 500-1000 using d'alembert at a $25 table, then quit while ahead (on most days anyway)

one night while still using d'alembert i clocked up 10k by just having a 1-10 spread, but progressing form lower tables to higher $ tables...(least means i limited a losses)...

that night i wouldntve hit a run worse that 6 or 7 to stay on with that spread, and that was about an 12 hr session (with about 2-3hrs breaks)

run was average, and was reasonably choppy (very common 2-3 streaks)....

now i use something alot more complicated with my card counting...which i wouldnt mind running a simulation on by itself...

doesnt die on streaks, winning streaks are better the BS, can suit choppy play or streaks, only requirement is that # hands won/loss dont stray far from the uglier side of the average...
thatd mean a bit of work to do, but then again anyone whos losing quite a bit more than winning is unlikely going to do any better...

that said, i stayed awake about 55 hours straight a few days ago, and im likely to hit 48 this time...that mixed with alot of vodka, and coke (seperate, terrible together) and an inconsistent diet....

irregular sleeping hrs (like sometimes 20hrs sleep, and 40-50 awake etc, some 12sleep 12 awake, mix this with alot of bad nutrition...at 19....not lookin good for the future...

guess the clubs keep me fit

well thats blackjack for you (2-6am has to be the best time...)