ROULETTE AP....

No, no progressions here. Just interested in roulette prediction computers. You know, calculating where the ball will land up based on physics.

I've always though about this, and I'm sure if you practiced hard enough, you'd become accurate enough to definately have an edge.

Still, using computers interests me. I've seen the idea pop up every now and then, and there surely has to be successful players/teams using them. I was wondering if anyone had any experience with a genuine one.

Even calulating a few numbers that probally won't hit would be a massive advantage. All it'd take is the cancelling out of 2 numbers to gain an advantage.

There would also be significantly less heat than BJ. It would, however, be illegal in many places. I guess a bit likey the Casey.

Anyone got any comments or info???Experiences???

Cancelling out 2 numbers dont give you an edge,it only makes the game even. The only possible way you can be sure 2 numbers will never show up, is if the dealer lets you put tape over them.

I'm sure there are lots of roulette,keno,etc. teams out there trying useless systems. They're all losers. I think the the pit would probably laugh if you brought a computer to the roulette table.

I read post of yours a few months ago claiming you make hundreds of thousands playing blackjack using some kind of betting system. This seems to be your game of profession,why roulette?

and not all of them use illegal techniques, but it requires an immense bankroll, lots of time, and lots of travel. Seems to me there's alot easier ways to get the booty

is highly illegal and will get you some private time in the state hoosgow.

Charting numbers and looking for biases in the wheel could possibly get an edge but you'll need a lot of patience and a large sample for any kind of certainty....then you'll need a bankroll and the "nuts" to put it out there on a possibly negative expecation game.

I've never claimed to make hundreds of thousands using a betting system. All I said was I was one of the few who had success when we all go through that progressions stage.

As far as roulette goes, it's just physics, and calculating a margin for error.

You are wrong. 2 numbers creates an advantage (37 numbers, 36-1 payout, 36 numbers = even money, 35 = advantage, you are probally thinking of those b@$tard double zero wheels).

There are computers out there, and I'm sure the few that use these are proiting immensely. If you brought one to a table, you'd get kicked out, maybe arrested (I'd think anyway).

It's not a betting system, it's predicting with decent accuracy roughly where the ball will end up.

why the need for a massive BR? A larger advantage will result in less fluctuations. Even cancelling out just 2 numbers creates what would be a massive edge in BJ. If you could figure out say which third or half the ball will land in, the majority of the time, you'd make a fortune. It'd either take ALOT of practice, or some pretty expensive equipment. Either way, it'd be the most profitable form of AP.

Saying you don't travel with BJ?

with a lot o
f practice, I'm sure you could train yourself the estimate where the ball will land. Just buy a wheel, and record the results for where the ball thrown from (the box), how many times it revolves, and where it lands. The power of the throw, and the landing would leave large margins for error, but it doesn't take much to get an edge.

Wouldn't be illegal either. If you became effective before you hit the tables, it would cost you much (well the roulette wheel would, buy one second hand??!!!??That has problems in itself).

I'll stick with my BJ and SB right now, think I'll give this some thought though.

The power of the throw, and the landing would leave large margins for error, but it doesn't take much to get an edge.

Don't forget the ball release point. Without it, the other two factors are meaningless. You may have considered this too obvious to be worth mentioning, but implementing this factor in play isn't as simple as you might imagine (see Thorp's Mathematics Of Gambling).

His stuff on roulette prediction is about the most interesting stuff on the subject out there, at least that is commercially available. Unfortunately roulette prediction is considered one of, if not the , most difficult of advantage play disciplines.
Interesting quote from Ed Thorp- "Approximate human calculations (at the roulette wheel) yield an advantage of 15%".

First, the payoff on a single number at roulette is 35 to 1, which is the same as 36 for 1. Eliminating 2 numbers gets you even with the house.

why the need for a massive BR?

Because of the kelly divisor. If you have 10% edge, you must divide your your advantage by the ratio of a winning wager to a losing wager, in this case 35, meaning you only bet .35% of your bankroll. This is because of the high probability of a loss on each trial.

Either way, it'd be the most profitable form of AP.

I don't want to discourage your interest in this fascinating subject, and I share some of your frustration with some of the negative comments, but it is not the best form of advantage play in terms of % advantage, return on investment, nor absolute return. Trust me, I make it my business to know these things. That is not to say it is not worthwhile.

wrote an interesting book entitled, "The Eudaemonic Pie," published by Houghton Mifflin Company of Boston, in 1985. The byline on the front cover states: "The bizarre true story of how a band of physicists and computer wizards took on Las Vegas." Be careful. Good luck.

Many, if not most, casinos now use a very light plastic ball which is quite unpredictable. Some casinos even use two different sized balls, which the dealer can vary at will (Mirage in Vegas, for one. Or maybe it was Bellagio, can't recall).

I prefer my balls to be equal in size! But that's just a personal opinion, of course.

[i]First, the payoff on a single number at roulette is 35 to 1, which is the same as 36 for 1. Eliminating 2 numbers gets you even with the house.
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Yes, I just realized that shortly after I posted.

[i]
Because of the kelly divisor. If you have 10% edge, you must divide your your advantage by the ratio of a winning wager to a losing wager, in this case 35, meaning you only bet .35% of your bankroll. This is because of the high probability of a loss on each trial.
[/i]

I meant in comparison to say a BJ BR. Having a larger edge will reduce the frequency and value of a fluctuation, won't it?

With the betting, I am assuming laying bets over about 10 numbers, not just 1. The probability of a loss would be lower. I would favor an even chance (of win/loss), and have a reduced profit per round, than a rare, high return win. It's just working out the balance which is most comfortable. Allowing for a higher margin for error, and covering more numbers should reduce variance, but reduce EV on winning rounds (tell me if I'm wrong).

[i]
I don't want to discourage your interest in this fascinating subject, and I share some of your frustration with some of the negative comments, but it is not the best form of advantage play in terms of % advantage, return on investment, nor absolute return. Trust me, I make it my business to know these things. That is not to say it is not worthwhile.
[/i]

% advantage, it seems it's possible to obtain a much higher edge than in any other casino play (excluding BHing). There are situations in SBing where you can obtain a higher edge, and be more profitable, but I won't comment on that as I don't know enough about it.

It would definatetely seem to be preferable to BJ IMO (when you compare conditions, advantage, variance, etc).

which are worked out fot you if you're using a computer.

If you're using your head, it's just noticing a pattern with the info you're receiving.

I know there are many more factors than I stated, such as speed of the wheel, the type of wheel, how worn it is etc, the different techniques the croupier uses when throwing the ball, etc..

It does seem a very complicated AP to master (if you plan on using your head), but one that is pretty profitable, and can be used in pretty much every casino on the planet.

A cpu just makes it plain simple (and easy). The only part that needs work is making sure you don't get caught.

If you locate such a computer, you might see if there are any exploits to be made in the RNG code for roulette online. You could safely use a computer at home and be able to check for biases (flaws) over a larger table of numbers in a shorter time.

RNG flaws have the most potential that I am aware of. Ron Harris, a former NGC official found a flaw in an RNG chip for keno games and exploited it in AC. It was the largest win at the time, something like $150,000 8 for 8. If he found a flaw in an RNG that covered an 80 number table, I'm sure one can be found for a 38 number table. He was able to accurately pick 8 numbers out of 80 correctly, all you have to do is pick 1.

It's just too bad that Ron didn't have smarter friends.

>>It would definatetely seem to be preferable to BJ IMO (when you compare conditions, advantage, variance, etc).

None of this is true, rethink your position.

I haven't read it yet but there is a link to a site that may have some information.

Well my arguement to it being preferable is:

Factors such as penetration don't come into it. As a roulette player, it's much harder to be identified as an AP. If they kick you out, it's likely because your've won alot.

Potential advantage is significantly more than BJ. No need to go into it further.

It depends what sort of approach you take, to how it will affect your BR. If you bet on only a few numbers, you'll win less often, but the wins will be worth more. More numbers picked/spin, more consistent, but less value. Assume you cover more numbers.

Due to consistency (covering more numbers), and a higher advantage, the swings should be less than in BJ. The winning streaks/trends will be longer, the losers shorter. They will also occur less frequently.

Next time you want to point out me being wrong, please provide arguements, facts, opinions etc. I'm not about to believe something just because you say so.