Risk Of Ruin Question for the Veterans

Hello Veterans,
Thank-you for the previous insight. I was hoping someone out there could help me with the following.

How often can I expect to be completely wiped out with playing the following situation?
I play 8 deck shoes, dealer stands on soft 17, re-split acec.. dd on any 2 cards...
I use the alpha count... I use the "wonging" technique and jump in when i get a true count of +3 or more after about 3 decks have been played... I was placing $100 flat bets, but have now decided to move to $25 and let it ride if the count remains strong doubling , even tripling if very strong...

I enter with $500 and leave the moment I get a good run IE: 25 --50 ---100 ----200
I am happy to leave with a $200 take home for now...

I have had no problem in doing so... I basically have 20 chances (25 * 20 = 500) to go 4 in a row and make $400... 25 - 50 - 100 -200 - 400.

Have I just been lucky.. I don't play the 3 or 4 in a row at the same table. I jump in when the count is up and let it ride if the count continues. If it drops even if I win I look for another table to continue....
any insight would be greatly appreciated.....

I am not at my computer with BJRM, so I can't give you an exact answer, but I would guess that your risk of ruin with a $500 bankroll is extremely high. You could probably get an exact answer to your question if you included one more piece of information: what is the penetration in the game you describe?

Otherwise, you are taking a strong approach to what is essentially a lousy game. I'm not especially familiar with the alpha count you use, but I am assuming that a plus 3 count indicates a good player advantage. You may want to consider incorporating Kelly-style betting when you make your bets. BJRM would be a very good tool for this.

Good luck in your pursuit and you may want to think about looking for a better game, if one is available near you.

Thank-you Bootlegger..
The deck is usually cut off at 2 to 3 decks leaving usually 5 decks in play... more often than not I wait untill I get at least a plus 6 count with 3 decks remaining.
The alpha count is +1 for the 2,3,4,5,6,
and -1 for the 9,10,J, Q, K, A
I recently read Lance Lumbert's.."the worlds greatest blackjack book" and it indicated that the ALHA count had one of the highest betting correlations I believe... I can sit back and "wong" to my hearts content. unfortunately, this is the only game in town.......

Am I banging my head against a wall here... I am not looking to make a fortune, just a couple extra hundred dollars a week...

Bootlegger's comments are entirely right...Even though you are Wonging the count, the fact that 2 or 3 decks of cards are cut out of play, increases the potential that you will not experience your advantage before the cut card is reached...That is, if your count is +6 and you play 3 hands and at the cut card your count is still +6, you played without any advantage. If it goes up to +9, you played with an excess of small cards for those 3 hands.

This does not mean that you should quit, but it does mean that even though a +6 indicates an advantage of 2 1/2% for you, the odds say that you will not get that full 2 1/2% because of the low penetration...The farther they penetrate, the higher becomes the potential for the distortion of high cards in your favor to come into play. That is why they never deal out all the cards anymore.

Something is wrong with your alpha count. As you have stated it, you have a negative pivot. Perhaps you meant to count the 7 as +1. This count is known by several other names; I think the Silver Fox may have popularized it. In any event, its betting correlation is not as good as High-Low.

Were you trying to refer to Humble's "World's Greatest BJ Book." That book promotes Hi-Opt I.

Thank-you Math ProF...
You were right in your assumptions... I must have missed the seven... I know the book promotes Hi-Opt1
but in the charts were he compares the different strategies. It seemed as though the ALPHA rated hire in terms of playing efficiency..

Your insight here would be greatly appreciated.. As you know I wong that is I don"t sit through the entire shoe, but jump in when I get a good solid count.

Which counting style would you suggest I use and why?

That takes 200 $100 bets with a 1% average edge, or 400 $50 bets with a .5% edge. You aren't going to get many high counts at this game. How many hours do you plan to put in each week? You will need to get in lots of them. Going home when you win $200 is certainly not going to help you get in those hours. Don't confuse variance with an earned win.