Hi everyone,
I've been messing around with risk of ruin calculations. I found the following good site that allows you to do calculations.
I was just wondering what % people believe to be acceptable? My game is coming out at about 1% probability of ruin. Is this acceptable? I realise this is hugely subjective but any guidance would be hugely appreciated.
Cheers.
For a small bankroll (less than 5K) risk of ruin is a pretty useless concept as you can replinish it from your regular job within several months or a year.
Bigger bankrolls are tough to replace and consequetnly Risk of Ruin is 1% or less for most players at that level.
I consider myself a professional blackjack player if we are attaching labels to each other. I play with a 9 % ROR. However, you have to remember that a computer is calculating this, or that it is a formula. I can make plays that a computer wouldn't so my ROR could be a little higher or lower.
1 % is great if you can get it. I am comfortable right now with the ROR that I have.
if you make plays that a computer would not make then your ROR cannot only be higher and never lower.
ROR of 9% is almost full kelly and means that you have a 1 in 11 chance of going bust if you never resize. If you're comfortable with that more power to you.
I don't think a professional can afford to play with such a high risk of ruin. You probably mean just session ruin and not total wipe out as impilied by the original poster.
For a full time professional the risk of wipe out shouldn't exceed a small fraction of 1%.
Francis Salmon
I need a $200,000 bankroll to play green ? If I had that, why would I need to play blackjack?
I got a $ 25,000 bankroll. I do mostly wonging in and wonging out.
$25 - 300 and many times $10 - 300 . Playing 2D when possible and 6D if I can't play 2D.
You do the math. CVCX gave me 9 %
I never play a 2D with less than 60 % pen or 6D with less than 70 % pen.
and your ROR is no where near 9%...it's more like 1.67% for a $25,000 bank if you spread 1x10-2x$150 wonging out at -2 for S17 DAS 6 deck games with 4.5 dealt out of 6. using HiLo and I-17 + Fab 4 with Four players total.
Win Rate: 1.34%
Win/100: $59.80
SCORE: $48.86
N0: 20,455
ROR: 1.67%
The same game with late surrender your ROR drops to 0.45%
Win Rate: 1.59%
Win/100: $69.10
SCORE: $74.65
n0: 13,396
ror: 0.45%
this using BJRM.
Using the same settings, CVCX will come up with very close numbers.
Why are my numbers always way off everyone else's? Wierd. It has happened on other boards too. I get different DI and Score numbers and everything.
I'm doing well so no problem, there. I did so well last month that I can take the next 2 months off, actually. But I won't.
It is nice to get a different opinion. Thanks. CVCX gives me 9 % and I'm not sure why.
I put in 6D, DAS, DOA, 70 % pen, split 4 times except Aces once, 3 players at table, no surrender,
Oh well. Things are going good and I'm going to keep chugging it out. If I lose half my bankroll, then I'll reevaluate what I'm doing. Right now, the only thing I'm worried about is not getting caught. You know when you are only worried about not getting caught, things are going good.
He mentioned 25-300, and sometimes 10-300. You simmed 10-2x150.
Perhaps he simmed 25-300, and on one spot.
I came up with an RoR of about 10%, betting 25-300 on 1 psot, sitting out at -3. This is with 75% dealt.. Sitting out at -2 lower the RoR to 9%
He also mentioned 70% pen on 6-deck, which would make his numbers even worse.
Maybe he can mention the setting he used.
"I need a $200,000 bankroll to play green ? If I had that, why would I need to play blackjack?"
I am not saying you need $200K to play green but to say that you do not need to make $30K per year because you already have $200K makes zero sense. This is a poor mans mentality and one of the reasons poor people stay poor and rich people get richer.
I'd probably put the 200,000 in a Certificate of deposit somewhere and earn interest on it and then work some small job on the side for the other part of my income. I wouldn't be living fantastic but it'd be easy.
You are right; it sure wouldn't be fantastic.
Today you could get about 1.75% per annum on that CD, about $300 a month before income tax.
Maybe you should re-think putting it to work on the tables.
Let's see .. 500 hours a year in play, 100 hands an hour, avg bet $100, avg EV 1.5% .. $75,000 MOL. And if you're good .. that's conservative.
Or $3,500 at the bank and you're working some 'small job.'
Wish I had $200K.
