? regarding flat betting.

I am curious as to flat betting. I play a double deck game, with what I think is solid pen of a deck and a half. Dealer hits soft 17, which is the only downer to the game. Splits up to four times, double any cards. My situation is this: I play to win $100 a day. It's a $25 min table. I flat bet, taking advantage of the splits and doubles. I will stop after a win of $350, or a loss of $300. My overall bank is $2,500, to which I will add winnings as I go. What is my risk of ruin? It is worked so far in a very short time for me, but I worry about giving it all back. Any help is greatly appreciated. This board is a wealth of knowledge. Thank you in advance.

You cannot flat bet a negative EV game and get an edge by using stop wins and stop losses...if it were possible casinos would not exist.

No easy way around it...playing the game isn't easy, sounds like one must grind out the wins and count cards, period.

Is he playing basic strategy or using a counting system for strategy variation, along with flat betting? I did two quick simulations on CV Data. Both used 2 Decks, Dealt to 39 cards or 3/4 decks, H17, DAS, DOA, RSA, No Surrender and Flat Betting.

Sim 1 - Basic Strategy: IBA of -0.294%
Sim 2 - Hi-Opt II: IBA of -0.104%

A single-deck game with S17, no DAS, DOA (first two cards only), No RSA and No Surrender was fairly common and had an EV of about 0 off the top. This game was beatable with flat betting and strategy variation by the count.

Just using stop wins and stop losses.

From Jay's post:

It's a $25 min table. I flat bet, taking advantage of the splits and doubles. I will stop after a win of $350, or a loss of $300.

I interpret his stop loss of $300, or 12 units, as his session baknroll, and $330 + $350 = $650, or 26 units, as his target and entered them, along with a maximum session length of 400 (presumably rounds) in the sessions tab under nuances. Here are the results:

44.86% of sessions won.
55.05% of sessions lost.
0.09% of sessions pushed.
43.21% of sessions hit the target.
53.73% of sessions tapped out.
The mean result of all sessions was a loss of $9, with a standard deviation of $328.

I have questions about the standard deviation. Two-thirds of the results should be within one std. dev. of the mean, but, given maximum win of $350 and maximum loss of $300, it seems that almost all of the results are within one std. dev. of the mean.

Did you see my response to your post on guns on the Politics page?