(What about Bob)-
"Where did you get your 15% figure from? Losing 13 out of 18 hands isn't rare at all."
Based on several thousand hours of play I think losing (or winning for that matter) 13 out of 18 hands occurs about 10-15% of the time when you play exactly 18 hands. (Please run a sim on this) It is FAR more rare than winning 9 and losing 9 hands, 10/8. 11/7, ect.
(What about Bob)
"i ran a sim with very liberal rules (SD S17 DA2 Ro8) for this $100 bankroll
and a 1:4 spread in red. Ave bet was only $8.60 and RoR was a whopping 80.5%"
(Me)-***Can't be. No one approaches a BJ table with 20 units ($100/5) thinking they stand as 80% chance of losing it all in 3 dealt decks. Ian Anderson built his career starting each session with only 25 units (20% of his trip bankroll) and trying to double this amount or losing it but only playing for 45 minutes max. You are telling us Anderson lost his sessions bankroll around 80% (and won 20%) of the time IN JUST THREE DECKS played? That is laughable!
We all know that, being a close to 50-50 game most of our time at the tables (short session) is spent winning about half the hands or eeking out a small win with the occasional streak either up or down. No one loses 20 units 80% of the time any more than they can expect to win 20 units 80% of the time. C'mom.
Your sims are not programmed right or I have to disregard the thousands in profit I and countless other counters have playing this way.
Ok. I'm still in week 3 of learning to count, but I can't follow whether counting with a decent bet spread would be a better idea than a Hail Mary from this particular conversation. Any one else have any input?
has devolved into meaningless drivel. i probably shouldn't have commented at all.
i used to play 6D games at the Indian casinos near me, "just to get some experience and maybe go on a lucky streak". Then i bought CVCX and realized just how marginal a game i was playing. Now, i restrict my play to Reno, almost exclusively SD, at least until i've grown my bankroll to green chips levels at a decent RoR. The amount i can divert from my day job to my bankroll is limited, but steady. With a little luck, the growth with come faster from playing.
So, to answer your question, don't play until you understand how big a risk you are taking. At tiny stakes, the difference in RoR between 500, 1000 or 2000 dollars is incredible.
On page 160 of the classic "Blackjack Attack" table 9.4 offers the following:
Playing Hours: 1
Expectation in units won:2.5
Risk of Ruin: 40%
TRIP BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS: 21 (units)
[2-deck, favorable rules, 6 to 1 spread, 75% dealt]
40% Risk of Ruin is a far cry from the 90-100% figure given by several on this topic.
I estimated 15% risk of ruin for just 3 rounds dealt
Given these figures, that sounds about right.
This should settle this ridiculous discussion.