Question to all who have been there...

OK...

So I have been reading up on BJ for about a year now, and know all of the dangers of overbetting my bankroll. Here is my situation.
My current bankroll consists of about $5K, and I expect future inflow of 4K in Sep and 4K in Feb. My plan was to start off the 5K@$10 unit and pray I still have something in Sep for my next payment. However, in my travels I have run across an AMAZING game (2D, DAS, LS, RSA 75-85% pen) however, it is a $25 min. I am afraid that this game will be burned out by the time all of my payments come in, as the collection of all of the payments would give me a (halfway) decent bankroll for $25 min. I have run the RoR calcs, and even with this excellent pen I am somewhere around 20% with only my current bank spreading 1-5 KO. What would you guys do? HELP!

Thanks very much.

D

Assuming you are now working on 6D shoes at a 1:15 spread, you have appx 33 max bets till your next student loan, oops, I meant 'future inflow' comes in.

:)

When you switch to DD at 1:5 you have 40 top bets available.

I'd start playing.

Good luck.

I was hoping you forgot about that:)

Thanks very much for the advice, just thinking about this game makes me feel...romantic...haha...

D

I would suggest as a basic rule that you consistently re-examine your standing as you are now. The way that you are examining your BR is excellent; so many just throw money out on the table thinking that they will win if the count is huge. Play there game and keep analyzing your own game.

HJ

..I think the reason I dont get too ahead of myself is because I regularly have humbling experiences that remind me of how crazy this game is...

example...last night I wait around of a while (the place was unusually crowded for a late tues night) to play the table I want, finally get in and go back and forth for a while. Then, the shuffle we all wait for appears. I go from an IRC (KO) of -4 to +5 (75% pen on DD) on the FIRST hand and all Im thinking is "how can I increase my bet high enough without drawing heat". So I win the first hand, double my bet to two units, lose the two unit bet but now the count is +8, so I act steamed and double my bet again to 4 units. To make a long story short, I lose the next four consecutive hands at four units with the dealer pulling 20s and 21s off of bust cards with the count never below +4.

It is experiences like these that keep me frightened:)

Thanks again for the complement..

D

To me, $5K isn't that much money. I have made $5K in one day but on to the matter at hand.

That game is awesome. I have actually played a game almost as good as I said in a previous post. It didn't have surrender and I think that is the only difference. I made about $2500 dollars in about 2 hours. Play once and week and clean up both times and well, now you have a decent bankroll. That game was a $10 table, though and I spread from 10 - 300 on it so that is how I pulled it off. I would spread 1 - 12 at least on a game like that. I know that would stretch you to the limit as far as ROR goes. I see it as life is a risk and so is blackjack. It is easy to say that if you win, though. If you lose, you don't want to hear it. You don't want to hear anything. I saw two different double deck games this week. Both were about 50 % pen. Absolute crap. I'd go for it. Man, if one of those double deck games had been 75 % pen, I would have thrown everything I had at it. If I lost, I would have drove away knowing I gave it everything I had.

I did get beat pretty bad this week on a double deck game with 60 % pen, though. If you do decide to sit down, make sure you watch that cut card very very closely.

..thanks for the reply, and yeah the game makes me drool. I have never seen a game like this, and I think this very well may be the best DD going right now anywhere. As I couldnt help myself any longer, I tried playing it a little this week and last weekend. Turned out about even, maybe down a couple hundred which isnt a bad thing.

The casino does sweat the money, I would feel a little uncomfy spreading 1-5 much less 1-30! I think I can get away with it on the weekends though, as my money is not that significant. During the week when the conditions are best (fewer people and even BETTER penetration, if you can imagine that) I would be the only player with maybe one other player betting the min. Since it is a very small place (basically one pit) they have nothing better to do then to watch the guy betting the most at their highest dollar min table..

Anyway, thanks again...I think Im going to hit it this weekend, but maybe curb my spread a little..(I am risk-averse, unlike you) :)

D

" .. but maybe curb my spread a little (I am risk-averse .. )"

Underbetting your bank roll when the count calls for it is not being risk-averse. It is suicide.

You can do EVERYTHING right and play a perfect game, but if you don't put the money in when the time comes, I dare say you are probably playing to a negative EV.

Good luck.

...I think this game can be beat with a 1-3 spread considering the penetration. The hourly win rate might be smaller, but the unit is higher then I would be playing (25v10) so the overall hourly $ win will probably be close. Of course I intend to CVCX/CVData this stuff some more before I go full on, but doing a 1-8 spread with my bank along with the heat involved in this place is kind of crazy...