Question for Math Prof and DD: Wonging out with Hi-Lo

Any Hi-Lo player knows that you are suppose to wong out when the TC <= -1, but what should you do when the TC is somewhere between -1 and -.5? Let us say it is early in the shoe and the RC = -4 and there are 5 decks left. Now the TC = -.8. Would you wong out here or is this departure point too early?

What is the consequence of wonging out of a shoe too early with a negative RC? It is negative expectation after all so aren't you just saving your $$$?

Thanks for any answers.

MJ

has a excellent discussion about this very issue.

In general, if you leave too early, you may be giving up potential positive ev later in the shoe. As you progress into the shoe, the optimal TC for departure increases.

My feeling is that the benefits of wonging out are generally overrated.I can hardly imagine a scenario where I would leave the table in the situation you describe but let's look at it more closely.
The following factors come into play:
1.Are other tables readily available?
2.How big is your spread?
3.How deep is the penetration?
4.How good are the rules?
5.Is there any heat?
6.Dealer speed
7.Table occupation
1)First, we have to distinguish situations where we can readily join another beginning shoe from those where we are bound to return to the same table for the next shoe.If the latter is the case it would be an error to leave because the prospects of advantage situations later in the shoe would outweigh the cost of staying in with minimum bets.
2)The bigger your spread the more reluctant you should be to leave.Losing some waiting bets doesn't really hurt you.
3)The deeper the penetration the less inclined you should be to leave the shoe.It would be a pity to miss a 5%-edge at the end of the shoe.
4)The better the rules the more reason you have to stay because the shoe can more easily turn to your advantage.
5)Leaving a shoe in progress is a rather unnatural thing to do and especially since Don's book, table hopping has become the most obvious give away for a well informed pitboss.
6)The faster your dealer the more rewarding it is to stay.
7)The fewer people at a table, the less reason you have to change.

Given these different factors, I don't believe in a fixed TC-rule for wonging out.My favorite moment for a toilet break is when I bust my hand in a double-digit negative RC.

Francis Salmon

MJ asked

Any Hi-Lo player knows that you are suppose to wong out when the TC <= -1, but what should you do when the TC is somewhere between -1 and -.5?

I don�t know why you are �supposed� to wong out at TC<= -1. That is one strategy.

I would recommend that you read the reply by FS. He outlines some of the considerations that go into determining a Wonging strategy.

What is the consequence of wonging out of a shoe too early with a negative RC? It is negative expectation after all so aren't you just saving your $$$?

You are playing hands with negative EVM so you are decreasing your overall EV. However, you are also adding to your Variance, so you are taking a double hit. And you are also wasting your time.
To get to your specific question:

Let us say it is early in the shoe and the RC = -4 and there are 5 decks left. Now the TC = -.8. Would you wong out here or is this departure point too early?

Hypothetically assuming there were no issues of heat/cover if there were another shoe in the pit, with the same rules and penetration and crowd conditions, and that shoe was ready to start, and there were no issues of heat or over, then I would move to that table.

In practice, I would usually stay where I was. If a shoe was worth starting, it is usually (not always) worth staying.

However, if I had gotten hammered in the first few cards, and I had lost all my initial buy-in, I might move to the other table before buying in again. Also, if I had started playing head-on and some ploppies descended at the table, I would move to open another head-on game.

Another consideration is the table minimum. If the minimum is high, then I would be looking to wonging out early. If the minimum is lower, I would consider staying and reducing my bets

Francis wrote...

1.Are other tables readily available?
2.How big is your spread?
3.How deep is the penetration?
4.How good are the rules?
5.Is there any heat?
6.Dealer speed
7.Table occupation

Thanks for answering Francis. Here are the conditions for my game:

1) There are other tables at the casino, probably around 4-6 tables. Whether or not another dealer is actually shuffling is another story. But hey, once you get up I'm sure you will find a game that is within 1-2 decks of a shuffle.

2) The spread is typical 1-12 units.
3) 75% penetration
4) S17 DAS DA2 LS Resplit up to 3 hands
5) No heat considerations
6) Dealer is of average speed
7) There are between 3-6 players at any table which has a spot open.
Also, at any given time at least 2 tables are packed with 7 people.

MJ

What ever the TC gets to, will be the average TC for the rest of that shoe.

Sometimes instead of betting minimum on a shoe that gets to -1.5 TC, I will quickly table hope to the adjoining table and while standing up, I will bet minimum on that table util the original table has ended its shoe. Even if I'm not starting that new table at the begining, I'm still playing on average with a zero count rather than at -1.5. My act makes it look like I'm just a gambling table hopping ploppy.

Mathprof said: "However, if I had gotten hammered in the first few cards, and I had lost all my initial buy-in, I might move to the other table before buying in again. Also, if I had started playing head-on and some ploppies descended at the table, I would move to open another head-on game."

Hammering phenomena blows me away many times. For example, at one time, I got hammered $10,000 at the "best dealer's table", mono-a-mono (I quit the table for the fear of the CTR, otherwise, I would probably lose my entire triproll). After many hammering instances, I'm doing what the Professor's doing: at a predetermined loss limit, I exercise a damage control, abandon ship, and look for the next ideal table. I know the sims say that there's no such thing as the hammering phenomena. For the unbelievers, yes you're right. I got hammered again & again during the next several "ideal" tables. So if I take a survey about the hammering phenomena, I think here's what the respondents from the survey would say:

1) Math Theorists: there's no such thing as hammering phenomena. In a long run, the math prevails.

2) Simmers: the sims show that you could lose 80 units of your big bets before you could turn around & recover your losses. So hammering is just part of the win/loss cycles.

3) Guys with commonsense: Let's face it. You would definitely move to another table If the counter-favored-dealer dumped to all 6 players at the table except you (1st-baser). You got hammered because 1) you mostly broke before the dealer, or 2) you usually got 17 while dealer got 18, and while all your tablemates got 18 or better, or 3) losing your biggest bet in a most unlikely way because the moron anchorman "screwed" up a play.

4) Guys with his own constructive opinions. (Let's see them in their following replies)

So which one are you: 1. 2. 3. or 4.?

A curious question for the Professor: Say you were the above 1st-baser (scenario #3), I assume you would quit that table after you got hammered & lost all your initial buy-in. By the same token, will you move to another table where another ideal dealer just hammered away all his victims (all players got wiped out & vacate the table)?

I assume you will not jumping into that vacant table because of the hammering phenomena. Doesn't the hammering phenomena sound like voodoo to lots of experts here? And yet you and I would quit a table after getting hammered at a specific loss limit.

this is what Mathprof is talking about

"I'm doing what the Professor's doing: at a predetermined loss limit, I exercise a damage control, abandon ship, and look for the next ideal table."

The issue in this thread was not about predetermined stop-limit, which are basically a bad idea.

The issue was table-hoping. Excessive table-hoping can draw heat. The issue was one of deflecting heat.

The point was that if you had lost a lot at the start of the Shoe, it would be a good excuse to move to another table if the shoe was negative.

If the shoe was positive I would continue to play.

> Hammering phenomena blows me away many times.

Wow! There�s a new voodoo term I�ve never heard before. I thought I had heard them all! But technically, shouldn�t it be Hammering Phenomenon? How many of them are there?

> For example, at one time, I got hammered $10,000 at
> the "best dealer's table"

What exactly is a �best dealer�s table?� Can you explain it without using any other voodoo terms like �dealer biased� or �dealer dumping?�

> After many hammering instances, I'm doing what the
> Professor's doing: at a predetermined loss limit, I
> exercise a damage control, abandon ship, and look
> for the next ideal table.

That is not quite what he was talking about. Damage control is fine, but don�t run off to another table unless you need to. Using a stop-loss limit will not improve your results.

> I know the sims say that there's no such thing as
> the hammering phenomena.

Not true. In fact, they prove that it exists! Many times you will lose several hands in a row, even with max bets on the table. That is nothing new. All intelligent players have seen it and come to expect it.

> 1) Math Theorists: there's no such thing as hammering
> phenomena. In a long run, the math prevails.

It does, but in the short run almost anything can happen (well, within a few standard deviations anyway). That is just the normal fluctuations of the game. Any smart player knows that.

And what exactly is a �math theorist� anyway? Someone who comes up with ideas for formulas and strategies but never attempts to prove them? That sounds more like John Patrick to me!

> 2) Simmers: the sims show that you could lose 80 units of
> your big bets before you could turn around & recover your
> losses. So hammering is just part of the win/loss cycles.

I thought you said that they don�t exist in the sims.

> 3) Guys with commonsense: Let's face it. You would definitely
> move to another table If the counter-favored-dealer dumped to
> all 6 players at the table except you (1st-baser).

Ah, there�s the rest of the voodoo terminology. This is where the �counter-favored-dealers� and �player dumping tables� come into play. Such preposterous parlance is the cornerstone of the phony-system industry.

> 3) losing your biggest bet in a most unlikely way because
> the moron anchorman "screwed" up a play.

Don�t you have a spiffy name for that phenomenon too? I�ve got a name for it: ignorant. That kind of superstitious thinking was disproved centuries ago and has been widely published in just about every reputable blackjack book and website. You should really do a little research before you decide to put any more money on the table based on �counter-favored-dealers� or any other �phenomena.�

> A curious question for the Professor: Say you were the above
> 1st-baser (scenario #3), I assume you would quit that table after
> you got hammered & lost all your initial buy-in.

I think his response was pretty clear from the beginning:

�if I had gotten hammered in the first few cards, and I had lost all my initial buy-in, I might move to the other table before buying in again. Also, if I had started playing head-on and some ploppies descended at the table, I would move to open another head-on game."

His response is based on the current game conditions, not superstition.

> By the same token, will you move to another table where another
> ideal dealer just hammered away all his victims (all players got
> wiped out & vacate the table)?

What is your definition of an �ideal dealer?� Please don�t tell me it is one at a �dealer breaking table� or other nonsense. The fact that the other players lost has nothing to do with the current advantage. Maybe they were losing because all of the small cards were coming out, meaning that the shoe is very favorable to you now. Maybe they were terrible players who use a �modified� basic strategy or followed the �never bust� strategy. Maybe the dealer was a �best-house-favored-player-breaking-table-biased-ideal-counter-dumping� dealer. =)

> Doesn't the hammering phenomena sound like voodoo to lots of
> experts here?

It looks like voodoo, sounds like voodoo, and smells like doodoo�I mean voodoo! No, wait...I was right the first time.

> And yet you and I would quit a table after getting hammered at a
> specific loss limit.

Absolutely not. Clearly you missed the entire point of the post. There are several good reasons to leave a table:

1) The shoe has become unfavorable.
2) You are getting too much heat.
3) The conditions have deteriorated (worse pen, too many players, etc.)
4) You have become too tired or emotional to play correctly.

Leaving a table because you lose several hands in a row is not an intelligent decision. It is voodoo nonsense that does not belong on this website.

-Sonny-

No room for any doubt. It's all been figured out. As long as you use one of the established excuses you can speak freely. It's a game with many variables and you havn't figured them all out yet.

No room for interpretation other than yours. If we really try hard and concentrate we all might catch up to you. I had better get started before I fall any further behind.

And what was the name of the book you wrote?

> No room for any doubt. It's all been figured out.

Yup. Common logic, rational thought, and the mathematical proof all agree on this one. This was all discovered decades ago and has stood the test of time.

> It's a game with many variables and you havn't figured
> them all out yet.

Like what? If you're going to attack someone you should at least have an issue. Or are you just complaining in general?

> No room for interpretation other than yours.

Interpretation is fine. New ideas are always welcome here, but you darn well better have some proof, or at the very least evidence. We don't bet our money based on emotions, hunches, superstitions, or selective memory here. We use intelligent strategies that have been proven to be effective. If someone starts saying that the Earth is flat, they better show us some indications if they expect to avoid the laughter!

> If we really try hard and concentrate we all might catch up to you.

Actually, most of the players on this site are already pretty far ahead of me. But don't worry, there's still hope for you. Just read a book or two and you will be much farther than GodWorkMysteriously is.

> I had better get started before I fall any further behind.

It's never too late to drop your attitude and learn the truth. Luckily you've chosen a great place to find it. The rest is up to you.

> And what was the name of the book you wrote?

It's called a blackjack journal. I have been keeping track of every table I have ever played at for over 22 years. Guess what, it�s a lot longer than any journal written by a progression player or voodoo player! Their journals always end up the same way: $0.

And what book did you write? More importantly, what books have you read?

-Sonny-

P.S. - You can attack me all you want in private, but unless you have something worthwhile to say about blackjack don't bother replying. Save it for John Patrick's website. They have new players all the time since the old ones are all going broke.

I have never met Sonny, not directly communicated with him other than through web sites such as this. He's struck me as someone that "knows what he is talking about."

But that's not really the point here. There is _no_ room for "interpretation" in blackjack and advantage play. There are no ambiguous points to deal with. Math is absolute. For every scenario that happens at the table, there is one correct play for you to make, unless you happen to use some counting system that at a particular count makes hit or stand (for example) exactly the same expectation-wise.

Good tables. Bad tables. Good Dealers. Bad dealers. Walking under ladders. progressions. Black cat crossing your path. All that is voodoo. If you want to partake of that, certainly it is your free choice to do so.

But to imply someone is somehow "close minded" because they follow the precise math that maximizes EV in this silly game, is going way beyond what is reasonable or acceptable. Casinos support "systems" that make them more money. They don't support systems that make them lose more money. They support systems involving progressions, hunches, streaks, etc. They do not support card counting in any form.

Figure out why that is and you are on the road to a full recovery..

P.S. It isn't because they hate card counters just because...

I agree with most of what you write as you shall see.

>Yup. Common logic, rational thought, and the mathematical proof all >agree on this one. This was all discovered decades ago and has >stood the test of time.

Starting with the product called "card counting" was thoroughly
analyzed and improved over the years just like any other product.
Everyone did a good job. Congratulations. If you're a card counter, it's definitely the way to go. Saying it has stood the test of time is a bit of an exageration. You would have to add up all the results of those who used it.

I also use common logic, rational thought and mathematics.

>Like what? If you're going to attack someone you should at least have an issue. Or are you just complaining in general?

A good example of a variable would be changing tables.
There is no scientific proof that changing tables is going to hurt you.

>Interpretation is fine. New ideas are always welcome here, but you darn well better have some proof, or at the very least evidence. We don't bet our money based on emotions, hunches, superstitions, or selective memory here. We use intelligent strategies that have been proven to be effective. If someone starts saying that the Earth is flat, they better show us some indications if they expect to avoid the laughter!

There fine unless they come from a progression player. I also don't bet my money based on emotions, hunches, superstitions, or selective memory. Intelligent strategies; not judging by the lament you hear from many posters.

>Actually, most of the players on this site are already pretty far ahead of me. But don't worry, there's still hope for you. Just read a book or two and you will be much farther than GodWorkMysteriously is.

Yes they are if they have an open mind. GodWorkMysteriously could be another variable. Might the source of negative variance to scare the hell out of all of us.

>It's never too late to drop your attitude and learn the truth. Luckily you've chosen a great place to find it. The rest is up to you.

You can't operate without an attitude; try it. My truth is better than yours.

>It's called a blackjack journal. I have been keeping track of every table I have ever played at for over 22 years. Guess what, it�s a lot longer than any journal written by a progression player or voodoo player! Their journals always end up the same way: $0.

More important is how accurate is your record? Another variable,
Is your record more important than the whole tables results?(math wise). I don't think a voodoo player needs to keep records. Are your records converging with the long term math?

>And what book did you write? More importantly, what books have you read?

I've absorbed them all; even ones that I didn't know existed.
Hopefully this and other sites as a group have read all the books that relate to this subject. The condensed versions that show up through postings are a great source of info without the noise and usually clarify complicated concepts that are for academics only.
In actual page turners, I've read very few. I do worry that a poster may have left out something important. If you understand what you're reading it's amazing what you can come up with.

jomoats, stands for (just one more orbit around the sun)

In addition to some traditional good bj stuff in his post, Sonny innocently wrote: "Here comes the garbage man..."

Sonny: Turning the cheek for the 1st time may diffuse a pissing war. Garbagemen are sanitation engineers. You're benefited from someone whom you would never think of possible. No, it's not me, but some garbagemen:

1) Garbagemen are the ones who unload & take away whatever you don't want, and

2) Garbagemen may not mean much to you, but Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. gave his life for them. "What benefit do I get?", you ask. (Answer: Hint: 1/16/2006).

With the ice-breaker for the opening asides, your humble garbageman's limited replies for you are:

1) My definition of an ideal dealer is a counter-favorest dealer. You & I know what to look for because we gambled in casinos more than 2 decades. There's no need to list here to educate the nemesis about the dealer's sloppiness, speed, BiC, flash, etc...

2) To me, a legit loss-limit is like a "what-if" safty device (See the quote below). Without setting up the limit (say 80 units of your top bet, subject to other legit reasons such as CTR), you may get wiped out because of a reason beyond your/our knowledge known at the moment (that's in addition to the pure mathematical reason): Say...(A) you're cheated by a really good mechanic, (B) you counted the cards wrong due to some drugged spring water you drank in an Indian casino, (C) your brain "crashed" (without you're knowing it) because of your personal unkosher intake (i.e., adverse reaction to shellfish), (D) you ran into the Maxman215's Mother of all losing streaks. (E) you may get fooled & ripped off by unknown TRICKS of the dealer. Take the trick test below. Don't look at the answer no matter what. Eventually you will understand why your mind gets fooled by the trick that you would never think possible, and then you will become more humble...as an old saying: Defeat and failure make people humble.

"The optimist invents the airplane and the pessimist the parachute." [Without the safty device, Neil Armstrong would died during a Gemini training. He was safed by his parachute when the gyrating lunar-landing trainer exploded. Again without a safty device, he would not live long enough to be the 1st man walking on the moon. Likewise in casino gambling, without a safty device, there are more victims died by the Maxman215's Mother of losing streaks. Of course, we would never heard of the victims unless he survives like Maxman215.]
--Gil Stern;

"I'm an optimist, but an optimist who carries a raincoat" & [sets a loss-limit]. --Harold Wilson ...

> I have never met Sonny, not directly communicated with him other
> than through web sites such as this. He's struck me as someone
> that "knows what he is talking about."

Thanks! I really appreciate that. I've been impressed with your posts even before you were known as SSR. So why have we never talked? Drop me a line at moretrinity@hotmail.com sometime.

-Sonny-

I guess because I've pretty well taken your comments as "on target". :)

There's always more than enough to deal with, with progressions and voodoo apparently making a come-back recently.. I'll tuck your email away and if a question arises, I'll fire something off to you. And perhaps we might even get a chance to talk one day depending on where you live and where you visit. I've made quite a few friends that I have never even met, except electronically, which I enjoy doing.

Unfortunately Katrina has blown most of my BJ play away, since the MS coast was my venue of choice due to distance and accessibility. Dog Hand has been nagging me to join GreenChip. I guess that is my next step. :)

But in any case, it is nice to read posts by someone that always seems level-headed and provides accurate/practical information.

Now back to the regularly scheduled voodoo topics. :)