Question for dog hand on when to bet

Your simulation results say that I should jump in and start betting at a count of +1. From my expereince I have noticed that while back counting a 6 or 8 deck shoe the count often rises to +1 but then falls. If I jump in at +1 and then it falls in one or two hands I am left in a tough situation. I either have to leave the table and leave a potentially good shoe behind or stay at the table and not bet which is very awkward and obvious. Now had I stayed at the table and back counted I could have waited for the count to rise to +2 there for gaining a better advantage and most likely playing more hands. So should I still apply your betting schedual except just wong in at +2 and wong out when the count falls below +1?

James Patterson,

I simmed the 6D S17 DA2 DAS LS game with 75% penetration where you enter at a TC of +2 and leave at a TC of 0 with this bet schedule:

 

TC Bet  

 0 0  

+1 $15  

+2 $20  

+3 $30  

+4 $40  

+5 $50  

+6 $60 

Doghand, congrats to U for winning of POM. It seems that you are the man to get answers from. Here are my questions. What will your sim results be for 6 deckers stacked by a casino in the manner laid out down below? Does the high-low-high-stacking increase a casino's profit margin? It seems fishy for a casino to stack those cards before shuffling. I hope your sims will tell me if that casino "cheats" or not.

												 

K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1 

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	0	J	Q	K 

K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1 

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	0	J	Q	K 

K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1 

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	0	J	Q	K 

Fan2008,

Do you mean that that's the order of the cards as they come out of the shoe? If you know the order in advance, you can easily figure how to play each hand best.

If you instead mean that that's the order before the dealer shuffles the decks, then you'd also have to specify the shuffle used so that the post-shuffle order can be determined. Once again, though, if you know the exact order of the cards in advance, playing optimally is easy.

Dog Hand

"If you instead mean that that's the order before the dealer shuffles the decks, then you'd also have to specify the shuffle used so that the post-shuffle order can be determined. "


Here's a shuffle procedure.

1) Spread out 6 decks of cards into 2 rows horizontally on table like this:

  

kqj10987654321 12345678910jqk kqj10987654321 12345678910jqk kqj10987654321  

12345678910jqk kqj10987654321 12345678910jqk  kqj10987654321 12345678910jqk  

Fan2008,

When the dealer washes the cards, doesn't that randomize the order? If not, how would you map such an action?

Dog Hand

"When the dealer washes the cards, doesn't that randomize the order? If not, how would you map such an action? "

Washing and shuffling will eventually randomize all stacked cards in a shoe of 6deckers...Say after 1~16 hours of plays? I never intend to map or shuffle-track any action. I just want to know if a casino can increase its profit margin by stacking cards as described in my previous posts.

A casino must have a motive in stacking those cards. Perhaps its motive is to produce more breaking rate against players, thus increase its profit margin, right? I don't know, and that why I ask if you can sim and find out a result.

Stacking cards in high-low-high-low order is much more dangerous for the casino than it is for the player(s).You don't need to run a sim (a pack of cards and your kitchen table will do)to find out that it all depends on the number of spots used whether the players or the dealer is favored. In a hole card game, the dealer has a big advantage if an uneven number of spots are covered.But if the players use an even number of spots, it's just the reverse.
However, if no hole card is used, the players should go for an uneven number of hands.
Since the players can react, once they have noticed this high-low-high-stack,I think it would be very unwise for a casino to try such a technique.
Also,the casinos have really an interest in a random shuffle since this makes tracking impossible.

Francis Salmon

"Stacking cards in high-low-high-low order is much more dangerous for the casino than it is for the player(s).You don't need to run a sim (a pack of cards and your kitchen table will do)to find out that it all depends on the number of spots used whether the players or the dealer is favored. In a hole card game, the dealer has a big advantage if an uneven number of spots are covered.But if the players use an even number of spots, it's just the reverse."

A theory may seem to work when tested manually, i.e., 14,000 hands of progression are tested and played favorably on a kitchen table, but a sim of 10 million hands of progression will show the true nature of the destructive beast. I'll wait for Doghand's sims before risking my dough on your even-hand theory in American casinos. Thanks anyway for your insight about a solution against the stacking cards. I've learned something after reading your post.

What I mean is that the effect of such a practice is so overwhelming that it can easily be checked on the kitchen table with a high-low-stacked deck.Just try it!
Besides changing the number of spots, the player can easily gain a huge advantage by adapting his strategy.
Bottom line: There is really nothing to worry about!

Francis Salmon

FS, Good news. That casino quits stacking the cards. Hmmm...I wonder why. Perhaps it gets backfired on its face as you'd warned in your previous post.