question for dog hand

question for dog hand

You said that the bet spread that you had given me in the better betting post was designed for a 6 deck game. Would that same bet spread work for an 8 deck game or would it have to be more to overcome the advantage that the casino has. Same rules just 8 deck. I also took the advice to save up some more money and now have $5,000. Thank you for all the help you have given me its been really helpful.

Beep, Beep, Beep!

James Patterson,

If you're wondering about this post's title, that's the sound of me backing up :P

In preparing to answer your most recent question, I went back and re-read the "Better Betting" post (see link below). When I re-entered the information (6D, S17, DA2, DAS, LS, 4 players, HiLo, $2500 BR, 1:4 spread, Wonging @ +1) into CVCX, I got significantly smaller win rates and SCOREs than those I reported in the "Better Betting" post (note, though, that the betting schedule and RoR values do not change). I have no idea how I obtained the reported values: try as I might, I could not reproduce those outstanding numbers... hence the "backing up" comment!

Instead, using this schedule for one-hand wonging

TC Bet 

 0 0 

+1 $15 

+2 $20 

+3 $30 

+4 $40 

+5 $50 

+6 $60 

.

will win $12.00/hr with a SCORE of 53.61. You'll play 27.3% of the rounds. With a $2500 BR, your RoR will be 10.7%.

If instead you can wong in and play two hands, using this schedule

TC Bet 

 0 0 

+1 2x$10 

+2 2x$15 

+3 2x$20 

+4 2x$30 

+5 2x$35 

+6 2x$40 

.

will win $16.74/hr with a SCORE of 77.73. You'll play 27.3% of the rounds. With a $2500 BR, your RoR will be 9.8%.

Mea culpa. Would you please pass the humble pie?

Ok, now with your new $5K BR, attacking an 8D shoe with 6.5/8 pen, you can use the following schedules.

TC Bet 

 0 0 

+1 $30 

+2 $35 

+3 $55 

+4 $80 

+5 $100 

+6 $120 

.

For one-handed wonging with the above schedule you will win $21.55/hr with a SCORE of 48.73. You'll play 26.4% of the rounds. With a $5K BR, your RoR will be 10.4%.

TC Bet 

 0 0 

+1 2x$20 

+2 2x$25 

+3 2x$40 

+4 2x$55 

+5 2x$75 

+6 2x$80 

.

For two-handed wonging with the above schedule you will win $29.98/hr with a SCORE of 70.92. You'll play 26.4% of the rounds. With a $5K BR, your RoR will be 9.3%.

If you compare the SCOREs for the 6D and 8D games, you'll see that for the same cutoff and rules the 6D game is superior. One further advantage from a wonging point of view is that you get more opportunities to wager in the 6D game.

Note that there's nothing special about a roughly 10% RoR: I picked that value because it corresponded to the RoR of your original betting schedule. If you'd like a more conservative (or more liberal) approach, let me know.

Finally, I apologize once again for misleading you in the original post. Also, if any of my brethern out there can figure out how I screwed up the original numbers, I'd greatly appreciate being illuminated.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thanks for all the help

Thanks for all the information dog hand it has been a big help. You said there is nothing special about a 10% risk of ruin. Would you suggest something smaller or bigger or do you think that the 10% is good?

Remember when I asked about your goals?

James Patterson,

You said there is nothing special about a 10% risk of ruin. Would you suggest something smaller or bigger or do you think that the 10% is good?

That's part of the question that you need to answer for yourself. How comfortable are you putting out the "big" money? If you were to lose your entire BR, how would that affect you, both psychologically and financially?

You'll frequently hear players on these boards discussion "Full Kelly without Resizing" betting. This carries a Risk of Ruin of 13.53...%. Once again, this figure is not magical either: it simply represents the mathematical chance of going broke for a given bet schedule, bankroll, and game.

Most players seem to be willing to accept a higher RoR at the start of their AP careers, since generally their BR's are small enough that they can be replenished if necessary. If you Search the page (and the archives) for the phrase "Hail Mary", you can see what I mean.

Then, as their BR's mature (and grow!), many players become more conservative, mainly because the amount of money in the BR is not so easily replenished. Even though their bet levels have grown significantly, they play to a smaller RoR. For professional players who live off their earnings (which by the way does NOT describe your humble correspondent), a RoR of even 1% may be too high to accept.

On the other hand, many who play simply keep betting at the same bet levels that they've always used despite the increase in their BR's. These players quickly end up with RoR's measured in tenths (or even hundredths) of a percent. They don't increase their bets because they are psychologically incapable of increasing them, or they're simply more interested in playing a winning game (and perhaps enjoying the comps they receive) than in making a killing at it, or they're constrained by the table maximums (I've had some recent experience with this one!).

Let me channel Yoda briefly here (please read the following in Frank Oz's voice):

"James Patterson, into your own heart you must look. Your own goals you must determine. Select wisely your personal Risk of Ruin."

Otherwise, just stick to 6%! ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand