question for BJ players

I have been following all the boards ( Veags BJ, East Coast, Vegas Life) for almost a year. I have read people give theories, post sim results, argue over both...

One resounding factor keeps coming up, that being the phrase, "long term". My question for all of you is this, Has anyone put a cap on "long term" in regards to winning percentage ?

Most people who post on the above named boards continully make fun of, and dismiss those who request info on quick hitting, or short time playing (I reference the posts by the guy who wanted to play for only a few months and then be done).

What is "long term" ?? 10 years ? 20 years ?? a lifetime ??

Any serious replys that don't start out berating me would greatly be appreciated.

Thank you in advance

Vinegarjoe

I would go by number of hands, not years.

All I can say, is keep playing and get in as many hands as possible.

Regards,

Forensic

concept. It's like all the people that play the stock market. Some are very successful going long and others short.
My feeling in blackjack is that the only way to really make money is to go short. Now you will see them (the crtics) come out of the woodwork. But when they sell counting, they sell it as a long term plan. I don't agree. I do best in casino's with the hit and run concept. I'm a counter, but I find (contrary to public opinion)that gambling establishments love when anyone goes long. You ever notice that all comps in casino's are tied into time? You think that is an accident? I think not.
But, that's not the way they sell it. They (experts)say if you go down and play, you can lose 10 times in a row, but in the long run you will win. I say who cares. I want to win here and now. I'm not doing this for a living. There are way to many things you can do for a living and make alot more money. Why would a person choose Blackjack? So to answer your question, I believe long term results in terms of gambling is rediculous.

Smokey

"You ever notice that all comps in casino's are tied into time? You think that is an accident? I think not."

Of course they are tied into time but that is because all those players are playing at negative expectations and the more they play, the more the casino wins. You can't include advantage players in this.

I like your idea of 'going short' in the casinos. Who wouldn't rather 'hit and run' with the money rather than grind it out over those long, boring and often losing sessions. Would you care to share your winning ways?

Duke

I think you've nailed it!

Long term sims are wholly irrelevant for one main reason--they do NOT represent the amount of hands ACTUALLY played at any one time.

If you want to make serious money at BJ, you have to have a system that allows you to maximize winnings during the short (relatively) that you ACTUALLY play.

I'll admit though--the worst part of hit & run is that sometimes I'm just having an awful lot of fun at the table--tough choice--stay and start losing or leave with my winnings.

case in point:

Peppermill in Reno

at least for the low-mid roller they place more emphasis on bet size than duration

there may be other casinos that do the same

at the 'mill you're better off betting $25 for 1/2 hour than you are betting $10 for 4 hours ... personally verified

How about if, instead of playing for the "long run," I limit my sessions to just one hand? If I win, I've doubled my bet. If I lose, I've hit my loss limit and I leave. These sessions would be so quick, I could probably leave and come back several times in the same shoe. I wouldn't even have to get up from my seat.

that I never read in any books (And I read alot of them).
In my entire Blackjack playing history I found that when I have had losing sessions, that there was a point in that session where I was ahead. I actually can remember very few times where I sat down and lost right from the first hand and never recovered.
My feeling over the years in playing BJ is that when i'm up (and not big money) I leave. Blackjack experts tell a different story derived from 88 billion hands that they simulate on a computor. Unfortunatly, none of us play 88 billion hands.
I count using the knockout system and i'm also a very big fan and believer of Mr. Schlesenger. But, I don't believe in long term blackjack. I am only a blackchip player, so let me tell you about 3 losing sessions I had in 2001. In a $20,000.00 loss 8 months ago at one point I was up $3400.00. In a $10,000.00 loss this year I was up $1950.00 at one point. And I have a couple of others to go along with it. In the previous years when I would be up even $1500.00 I would put $1000.00 on the side and if I droped the $500.00 I was out of there. Thats my norm. I changed it by reading all of this long term garbage. Counting is great and it has improved my game a ton, but I don't care if your counting or not, if you are not getting the cards instead of the dealer you're dead. I find the only thing that works for me even with counting is when your up, get the hell out of there. Tomorrow is another day. Because, you will give it back.
Go back in your memory, How many times can you count that you have been up alot and you continue to play and you go up alot more. It does not happen that much.
I also have another rule. If i'm down a fair amount of $ and I make a comeback, I never try to make money. I welcome the fact that I got even and also get the hell out of there. I find when I come back and get to even and I stay, the cards go the other way. Don't ask me why, it's just the way it is. Anyhow that's my story.

Smokey

AND don will hit you.

Please make sure you don't let them impress you with their "DREAMS" for you've learned your own LESSON out of your own experience. And, that's what matters most. We all make our own realities and many dispensers of the "DREAM" have not yet learned their own. Good luck.

You have not read about this phenomenon because, quite simply, it does not exist. I have had many sessions in which I did nothing but lose, lose, lose, and walked away from the table saying to myself, "Wow. That sucked."

I have also had many sessions in which I went up, then down, then up, then down, so much that I felt like a yo-yo.

Some of my best sessions started out with a large loss.

And of course, there are those occasional dreamlike sessions in which the cards all fall your way, and it all seems so easy.

The only pattern is that there is no pattern.

I know this to be true because I keep detailed records. Do you?

Besides, you cannot avoid standard deviation by simply quitting a session while you are ahead. In the long run, you will earn your EV, minus what you give up in mistakes, tokes, cover plays, etc.

No more, and no less.

you sound like you have a monstrous bankroll!
You say "In a $20,000 loss... at one point I was up $3400. In a $10,000 loss... I was up $1950 at one point.". I believe your point was you should have taken your profits and ran while you still had them. My question is, how can you stay in the BJ business if you limit your wins to a small fraction of what you are willing to allow your losses to grow to?

Regards, Duke

It is one of the most enduring -- and astonishing -- themes in all of gambling lore that, somehow, we reach the magical long-run without simply adding up a lot of short runs!

It's amazing beyond all belief how people can think that simply removing your body from the table and then coming back later can somehow "start the clock again" and "change the flow of the cards," so that they won't be as damaging as they once were.

And, it's even more amazing that people think that, somehow, we ought to play differently for, say, one hour, than we would for, say, one month, as if the cards and the chips know what our master plan is!

Then again, you've got guys like Walter Thomason writing about leaving a table after losing, what, 3 or 4 hands in a row, so people read this nonsense in books and assume it's sound advice.

Don

I agree that a few losses in a row should not trigger a table departure but what if the dealer is beating your brains out over a lengthy period of time? Are you suggesting staying at that table and waiting for the long term to balance things out? Who knows what's going on at that table?? Is it not better to find another and try anew. No sense in pushing out (delaying) the long term results by inflating a short term losing session.

There are many, many legitimate reasons that would prompt me to leave a table. But, unless I thouhgt I was being cheated, losing a lot of money simply isn't one of them.

Don

"No sense in pushing out (delaying) the long term results by inflating a short term losing session."
-Duke

"...tough choice--stay and start losing or leave with my winnings."
-Fred

Actually two questions...

How do you two know you will start losing if you stay longer and why are you even worrying with blackjack when you could make billions in much easier ways with your ability to see into the future?

I think sometimes with all the material that is written about Blackjack, with all simulations they put through a computor, we tend to forget that we are only gambling.
There are times when you can sit at a table and you can't get arrested. Gambling means that the same way you are entited to the cards, so is the dealer. Even in the laws of deviation what comes up must come down. The sessions that go in one direction either way are far and few in between. Those sessions where I lost a substantial amount of money, I did not lose when the cards were against me, quite the contrary. It was only at the best counts that I had the highest bets out there and got killed. So for someone to say hang in there and the cards will turn, is rediculous. Hang in until when? Until a person is broke? What happens in an 8 million hand simulation dosen't mean anything in 20 shoes. We are still gambling. All the counting we do in the world does not assure us anything. It merely improves our odds AND THE DEALERS. You get the card you win, he or she gets it, they win.
So, yes leaving after being up is an excellent idea. Counting smounting, cards go up and down. Why not just leave when they are up. The experts say stay and win more money. I say you stay and give it back. The problem is in self control, most people can't get up and leave. Even with those losses I mentioned above, I had an up year in the blackjack arena, but I don't believe that would have been the case had I not left the tables many of the times I did.

I've been through this kind of erroneous thinking 1,000 times with people over the years. I really can't help you and really have no desire to convince you of anything. I'm happy to have you continue to think as you do, even though 99% of what you've written is incorrect.

Don

I think you make alot of sense. I think D.S. makes alot of sense. I just wish people were more open minded about variations in play and not so quick to demean others ideas about advantage play.

Joe.