Profitable conditions?

Only Casino in my area has the following rules:

8 decks
DA2
H17
Split to 3
Aces split to 2
No re-split of Aces
DAS
BJ pays 3:2
Insurance 2:1
OBBO

Not the best, but penetration for some dealers is up to 90.6%, average of 80%

Have been given mixed reviews about how profitable it would be given its average conditions, however, I see its terrific penetration as being quite a favorable game.

Plan was to Wong in at +2 with $30, $60 at +3, $100 @ +4, $150 @ +5 and $200+ @ +6. Any thoughts?

I would have my max bet on the table at +4.

and rules are about the same as I get at MGM Detroit except you can resplit all pairs to 4 hands including aces. Pen is 7 of 8 decks with H17 or 4.75 of 6 and S17. Wong in like Anonimuss said.

Koz1984,

I ran a CVCX sim for an 8D, H17, DA2, DAS, ENHC game (OBBO) with 7/8 pen for a HiLo counter with a $10K BR wonging in at +2.

Using the bet schedule you gave, I found an hourly win rate of $157.91, a RoR of 11.5%, an IBA of 1.927%, an average bet of $81.96, and a SCORE of 170.08. The wonger played about 17% of the rounds observed.

I then asked CVCX for the optimal bet schedule, constrained by a 1:7 spread (and all bets in $10 increments). It gave this schedule:

+2, +3: $50
+4: $90
+5: $130
+6: $160
+7: $200
+8: $220
+9: $270
+10: $310
+11 & up: $350

With the good pen you specified, you'll see +11 or higher a bit over 2% of the time.

This optimal schedule gave an hourly win rate of $180.21, a RoR of 12.7%, an IBA of 2.017%, an average bet of $89.35, and a SCORE of 184.94.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Better re-evaluate that win rate again. A $200 max bet on an 8 deck game won't win $159 an hour, wonging in or not.

Thank you guys for your input. And thank you Dog Hand for running the Sim!

I refuse to believe this game has a score of 185. I would have guessed 30. Can someone confirm or deny this result?

Dog Hand made a rare error. The $180 win rate that he seems to be quoting would be for PLAYING 100 back-counted hands.

But, the player is back-counting and, therefore, observing 100 hands per hour, but playing only 17. As you state, the hourly win would be more of the magnitude of $30-$31.

Don

In light of the recent error, would it be possible for someone to please run a CVCX Sim and provide me with an accurate assessment of the win rate?

Just adjust it for actual hands played.