Sample
From "South Florida Boat Report - Pt. 3: Trips and Odds and Ends" by Mr. Lucky.
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5. ACTUAL LOST VALUE IS FAR WORSE THAN MISSED EV.
I was getting bored and ready to go home, when a dealer who frequently cuts off less than a deck on a 6-deck shoe finally had his table open up. I got so excited when he cut off about 0.4.
My Friend was with me and knew enough to say to me, "This last shoe of the night is going to be goooood!" The count immediately went way negative.
The RC was -14 after 2 rounds, but I didn't care. Two rounds later, the count was still very negative, and I totally spaced out and completely forgot what the count was.
After thinking a moment, I thought the RC was either -12 or -8. I couldn't remember which it was before and after the round. Rather than being conservative and going with -12 (or lower), I just stopped counting. I didn't leave because my friend was playing. Sure enough, the little cards kept coming out as we both kept winning almost every hand with lots of splits and doubles.
The dealer noticed my profound scowl and said, "Hey man, you're winning." Even my friend said, "what the hell is the problem?" As more and more little cards came out, the count had to be positive, but I wasn't going to guess. My friend just looked at me and demanded, "Well!?" He knew it had to be positive too, but had to rely on my counting skills.
"Got me!" I mumbled irritably. Suddenly my friend realized why I was so disgusted.
When I waived off my 11 vs. 2, my friend laughed, doubled for me and said, "Gee, isn't one total brain fart per shoe enough?" I can't tell you how much we didn't win due to that mistake because I don't know what the count was! Definitely over a grand.
My friend didn't lose a single hand that shoe, and I wasn't very far behind.
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