Poker vs Blackjack, risk adjusted question.

I’m currently playing in a poker game where my estimated hourly win rate is about $35, with an hourly standard deviation of around $145 (using Mason Malmuth’s formulas). It’s genuinely a great game. In fact, even with a 10% up to $5-per-hand rake, most low-limit live poker games can still be very profitable if you’re patient.


The challenge with poker is that as you move up in stakes, the players get tougher. Depending on your skill level, your edge shrinks — and in some games, it can disappear entirely. Online poker is an option, but the edges tend to be smaller and the rake higher. A $0.25/$0.50 online game often plays more like a $5/$10 live game in terms of difficulty.


So here’s my question: if I can choose between a poker game with a $35/hour expected return and a $145/hour standard deviation, or playing blackjack instead, what’s the best way to compare the two?

I just read online about RISK OF RUIN in poker. Here is the formula. 
 

RoR = e^{(-2 × WR × BR / SD2)}

WR: Win rate in bb/100 hands

BR: Bankroll in big blinds

SD: Standard deviation in bb/100 hands.

The formula calculates the probability of going broke over an infinite time of playing. Recently, I’ve been looking at the RoR simulation from bjtheorem. It seems to me they define the blackjack RoR as the probability of going broke over 2000 hands of playing. 

To have a $35/hour expected return in blackjack, you need a $700/hour standard deviation. Another problem is that these players are quickly backed off.

Maybe this answers my own question. Theoretically, once a player can beat a  game of Blackjack they can increase their bets to whatever return their bankroll can withstand.

If I started playing higher limit poker I would eventually find a point where my risk adjusted return would be less than Blackjack.   

I don’t know how you calculated your standard deviation of $145 per hour in poker, but the $700 per hour S.D. in Blackjack can be easily simulated out on any simulator online. In both games, when the stakes become higher, there will be cheats of all sorts, I believe. 

To get an semi accurate EV and SD for an individual poker player they need to play the game and collect results. So I believe the only way I could figure out if I should exchange Blackjack for Poker is if I've found I've actually tapped out my edge at Poker.

Do you or do you not have BJA3? Why are looking online fro ROR information, when chapter 8 has 39 pages on the subject?

Don

I’d like to read this part soon.  In the meantime, I’d like to know if there is a Texas Hold’em poker game simulator somewhere.  This simulator will record the progress of your bankroll when you play with other players of equal skill levels. Of course, there is a 10% up to $5-per-hand rake, so that some players must lose because of bad luck. 

"I’d like to read this part soon."

What does this mean? Answer the question, please.

Don

Yes, definitely.