Thinking Ploppishly (is that a word?)
Because of this, shoes in which the dealer wins more hands than the player are, in my opinion, likely to continue even in positive counts. Is this bull ? Am I thinking like a ploppy ?
If you click the link below, you will find Norm Wattenberger's Blackjack Data Repository. I used this site to confirm my suspicion that your thoughts are definitely tending in a ploppish direction. I selected a decent game: 6D, 83% pen, No Cover, S17 & DAS, with a 1:8 spread, and checked the table named Cumulative Win, Loss & Tied Percentages by TC, using HiLo as the counting method. As you can see for yourself when you call up this table, the only time you'll win more hands than you lose is when the TC is greater than or equal to +5, which occurs only 2.96% of the time. Thus, the vast majority of the time, you'll lose more hands than you win, even in positive count situations.
Don't fear thinking like a ploppy (TLAP)... only fear not realizing that you ARE TLAP and therefore are not taking steps to think like an AP.