Patrick's drivel !!

This is a post made by John Patrick on the term, Negative Expectation. "Subject : NEGATIVE EXPECTATION Author : JOHN PATRICK Date : 9/10/2001 2:02:58 PM

Anyone who gambles

Over a year ago I visited a couple of newsgroups and was constantly presented with messages from the clueless math people that casino games and any type of gambling are all negative expectation endeavors.

This subject has really rankled me, because there may be some people reading this that are new to gambling and it is time I straightened out the most ridiculous statement that these dorks have EVER spit out.

First of all, let's look at the LOGIC of a statement......any statement. When you put two words together, they have to have a LOGICAL MEANING, othersise they don't mean anything

A SCHOOL TEACHER.......means that person teaches in a school

A HAPPY PERSON.....means the person (subject of the statement) is
a person who is happy
A FOOLISH QUESTION .............means that the question was foolish

A LOUSY ATTITUDE.......means that person has an attitude that is lousy

And so on. There are millions of statements that are said and can be said, whereby the two words (in this case) depict a situation or a personna of a person. The two word explanations have meaning....real meaning. They have to lean on each other, regardless of which order they are put in. (Even if you said EXPECTATION NEGATIVE) It would mean the same thing......it HAS to.

Let's go to the topic that makes the sayer sound real intelligent, like they know what they are talking about. Putting more than six letters in a word usually goes over my head but I have taken the time to break down this stupid statement and come up with a LOGICAL understanding.

NEGATIVE means downer....lousy feeling......anticipating the worst.....waiting for something bad to occur.......resigning oneself to something bad happening......opposite to a positive outlook......... expecting the upcoming game or exercise or trip or date or meal to be lousy (negative)
You all understand what negative feelings are...........

EXPECTATION is LOGICALLY expecting something to occur, either good or bad. Anticipating that whatever you are planning to do, you are making either a positive or negative assumption as to what will happen.

Now put the two words together and you get NEGATIVE EXPECTATION. It means that the person with a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION is

EXPECTING something NEGATIVE to happen.

Now the dorks that apply the term NEGATIVE EXPECTATION to gambling are leading you astray. They are saying that if you gamble, you have to expect something negative to happen.

Are they kidding me?????????? Do they mean that it is impossible to win at gambling??? Just because the house has an edge, (which they do), does not mean that the streaks that occur in every single solitary game of chance won't happen to a person who goes up to a table or a race track or a sporting event .........and catch that hot streak.

The clueless are just plain STUPID when they hand that dribble out. They would have you believe that every person entering a casino SHOULD expect to lose because they are playing a game that has an edge for the house.

How about riding in a car? How about crossing the street? How about a plane ride? Someone posted a note ......How about LIFE? Isn't that a path that eventually leads to an end because no one has ever lived forever? All of the above HAVE to be looked at as having the POSSIBILITY of something bad happening, because in every one of those undertakings, there HAVE BEEN fatal accidents.......so should you not partake of them, just because there is a percentage of bad that could occur???

I have had this craw in my gut for a long long time about these dorks handing out their nonsense. They really truly are clueless as to what people feel when they gamble.

Do most people lose at gambling????? Of course they do, but as I have said over and over and over and over and well you get the point...........It's easy to get ahead but people (most) won't quit with a small return.

I have read posts from several people on this board who ADMIT to getting ahead and ADMIT that they won't (can't quit).

I've read recent posts where Jim is on a hot roll and knows when to quit. Is he gonna break the casino? Heck no, but he sure ani't EXPECTING TO LOSE.....when he gets a small profit in his kick.

Arguing with stupid people over THEIR lack of understanding ain't gonna get you nowhere.....just a headache. Don't let things bother you. Just laugh at those jerks, but above all, don't split a gut when you hear them spout that
GAMBLING IS A NEGATIVE EXPECTATION GAME.

It ain't to me......and I fight a 10% vig on sports betting 363 days a year. and it ain't to pro horse players who fight an eighteen % bite by the greedy states, and it ain't to many people who read the stupid references by the guys with the big words and the little knowledge of life.

NEGATIVE EXPECTATION (expecting to have something negative happen). What a crock of crap..............proves what these dorks really know..............NOTHING

It doesn't matter what gambling newsgroup or website you visit.......you will have dorks spouting their nonsense and unfortunately there are some people who swallow their swill.

There are many sharp people on this site......many......and they talk with a hands on Knowledge of what gambling is all about. They even admit to the days they lose..........but NOT because they expected to lose..........it was because they didn't have the DISCIPLINE to quit .......and these people have admitted it.
(See HEAVY'S posts). why do I pick on him in this instance?

good question, glad you asked. Because he KNOWS the game......does not go up to a table with a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION.......but gets ahead at a game where the house has an edge ........then, for some reason (weakness of the moment), he'll give back the profits.

He did not lose because he had NO CHANCE to win. He lost because he didn't quit when he should have..........and HE WILL ADMIT IT for the purpose of letting others see that even the best players lose their control, after they get ahead of the house at their own game.

NEGATIVE EXPECTATION.............I'll show you how to intelligently apply it.

YOU can bet the ranch that you can NEVER EXPECT (NEGATIVE EXPECTATION), to hear anything .........and I mean ANYTHING intelligent from these dorks that are trying to fill your heads with gar---bage. That is one NEGATIVE EXPECTATION that will hold up against the sands of time, because these dorks have NOTHING POSITIVE to give to you. (Heck, they prove that every time they post).............JOHN PATRICK

JOHN PATRICK

This guy sells lots of books folks !!!! B.

he was on the travel channel saying the 6 and 8 are the best bets in craps

"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

- Phineas T. Barnum

Patrick did make one pretty astute observation: "It doesn't matter what gambling newsgroup or website you visit.......you will have dorks spouting their nonsense and unfortunately there are some people who swallow their swill."

You got that right, John. :-)

Brian, I've never read any of John Patrick's material and am just curious. Is his writing really that crude with all the "jerks", "dorks", and "ain't's"? Hit 'em hard, The Side

It looks like Patrick's style. I find it hard to believe that even Patrick could be that stupid about the term "negative expectation." In fact, I don't believe he is. If he wrote that, it would be just to keep supporting his con.

He posted this on his own site ! I mean it's absolutely pathetic to think that this guy calls himself a professional gambler !

I bought his books at a flea market for $1 and have been winning at craps ever since. Have I agreed to pay him some sort of commission with out knowing it? What exactly is this con you speak of?

All the bad grammar is apparently Patrick's idea of "style." His website (www.johnpatrick.com) is actually quite entertaining, albeit unintentionally. For example, here are Patrick's words of wisdom regarding splitting aces:

"OK. We're each betting $5 on the next hand and lo and behold, we're both dealt a pair of aces vs the dealers up card of a queen. You immediately slide another chip on the board indicating that you wanna split those aces. The dealer splits them and proceeds to give you a card on the first ace. It could be anyone of 13 cards, from ace thru a king.

"If you are dealt a k, q, j, 10, 9, 8, you will have 21, 20, or 19. If you are dealt a 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, ace, you will end up with 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, or 12. That means 6 times you have an average winning hand and 7 times you will have less than an average winning hand vs that dealers power card.

"When it is his turn to show his down card, to match with his queen, look what his chances are of getting 19 or better. an ace, k, q, j, 10, or 9 will give him a 19, 20 or 21 and of the remaining 7 cards, he gets to draw to the 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 (17 and 18 he sits). But he will draw 19 or better an average of once every five cards when he has a breaking hand, giving him 7 out of 13 shots to have 19 or better.

"You have less than a 50-50 shot of getting 19 or better to his better than 50-50 shot. Plus, you can't draw after that ONE card you get with that ace and an ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 leaves you swimming to shore with concrete blocks around your neck.

"I hit my two aces vs a dealers 9, 10, j, q, k, ace/ Sometimes you see yourself getting an ace /four and an ace 3 vs the dealers jack, after you split. You're finished vs that power card. If you hit the aces in that situation, you'd have one solid hand of 19 and be in the hunt.

"One thing will have you heating up the tar and feathers on my firont lawn. You'll hit the two aces and get dealt two tens, giving you a bust hand of 22 instead of two 21's. You will incur the wrath of the whole table. Big deal, in the long run, the logic of splitting aces with a one card draw vs the dealers power cards is lost on me."

There is a lot more where this came from. What is scary about Patrick is that there is just enough good advice mixed in with the BS (and we're not talking Basic Strategy here), that it might sound plausable to someone who doesn't know any better.

For example, another quote: "There are only two kinds of gamblers", John states unequivocally, "Experts and Dopes. If you're not an Expert, you should stay away from the tables".

No argument here.

"What is scary about Patrick is that there is just enough good advice mixed in with the BS (and we're not talking Basic Strategy here), that it might sound plausable to someone who doesn't know any better."

Just what good advice are you talking about Parker ? He's says correlating the bets with counts is the downfall of all card counters. This guy wrote a book on card counting !

He says, in essence, to stay away from the tables unless you know what you're doing. That's sound advice. Simplistic and obvious to anyone with half a brain, perhaps, but sound.

That's great Parker ! In John Patrick's blackjack theories you find sound advice... That's like saying,

Remain calm, take deep breaths, and on the count of three...pull the trigger !

B.

Here: http://www.johnpatrick.com/tips.asp?id=5

In one breath he says that his bet has more house vig but he doesn't care. He does better with it.

He is like the drug dealer that refuses to use his product because he knows the destructive qualities. I am sure Patrick doesn't take his own advice. He'd have no money left.

David

You will see disagreements among advantage play authors on various subjects, however, they will all agree on one thing for sure, and that is...... John Patrick is a joke.

Mark