Open Season For APs?

I went to a casino recently and sat down at a full table of a 6 deck blackjack game and saw something truly amazing. There was only 1 spot open, and I planned on playing 1 hand and use a bet spread of 7.5:1. Only a few hands in, the count went positive, and the character at first base jumped from 2 hands of $2 each to 2 hands of $100 each and eventually bet up to 2x$300. Furthermore, every time he had a decision to make that was affected by the count, like taking insurance, hitting hard 12 vs 2, and doubling 8 vs 6, he took about 15 seconds to make each decision and appeared at one point to count on his fingers while staring at the discard pile. I wanted to pull him aside and tell him that he was being way too obvious. Instead, I left as soon as the shoe was over and decided to never sit down at a table if I spot him again.

Question: With regard to this particular casino, should I be playing here and much as possible and using a 150:1 myself or will this game get a lot more scrutiny soon? If I wasn't in such a hurry to escape his potential heat, I could have stayed, flat bet, and seen what happened, but I really only have the 1 shoe worth of information. Do casinos really exist that a player can consistently, blatantly count cards and not get banned?

The answer is already in your post.The key to success in Blackjack is speed. A guy who needs 15 seconds for an index play isn't really a threat for the casino. Furthermore the fact that he doesn't mind playing at a full table shows that he's not really concerned with the crucial notion of hourly win rate.He might make 10 bucks/h at best.
Usually, casinos allow a spread of 50:1 between table max and table min.150:1 is quite extraordinary. May be they really don't have a clue.
I would put it to a test and return there when it's less busy.

Francis Salmon

PS. You must still check whether a 150:1 spread is compatible with your bankroll!

Do casinos really exist that a player can consistently, blatantly count cards and not get banned?

Probably not. But I think, for what it's worth, your focus on heat is misplaced. The 7.5-to-1 spread on one spot on a completely crowded game will get you nowhere in the long run. The encounter described here looks to my (jaded and bankrupt) eyes like the quintessential run-in between a hyper-aggressive, take-no-prisoners, heat-indifferent, presumably winning player and a recreational counter reluctant to believe that winning play is ugly and brutal and blatant. This guy was a sentinel whose call you ignored.

Or, he might have been a clown. The 15 seconds he took on each playing deviation is a mysterious thing. But it might not have meant what it seemed to. If Francis Salmon is correct, and the sluggish play was enough to convince the casino that despite his magnificent spread, the guy was an incompetent, then perhaps what you saw was an act. The only thing certain is that this guy was playing; his indifference to heat helped him do so. Your fear of heat sent you out the door, and if it hadn't, it would have constrained you to a spread so small as to be meaningless (unless the game was positive-off-the-top or otherwise had special value).

Each gambler pursues his own fate, and it's not for me, who am broke, to claim to know the optimal approach. I just really think for new players it's better to go for the money and ignore heat totally. Most have no future in blackjack regardless; most will give up, or get unlucky and broke, or play in such a paranoid style that luck is unlikely to find them. What is the present value of the future play of someone who doesn't win money? Why should such a person fear heat?

Agreed that his spread was huge, but I often get away with 40 or 50 to one under certain circumstances.

The time lag in making an index decision easily can be an act. Do I double my 8 vs 6, do I hit my 12 vs 2? Borderline plays that many a novice will also take time to decide. If in fact it was part of his act, it at least worked on you.

Moving to another table though was perhaps a good idea. Generally do not want 2 counters on the table but something else you should consider, if they are looking for a counter at that table, he will get the attention and you probably, with your poor spread, can play forever (but not make any real money).

ihate17

With regard to this particular casino, should I be playing here and much as possible and using a 150:1 myself or will this game get a lot more scrutiny soon? If I wasn't in such a hurry to escape his potential heat, I could have stayed, flat bet, and seen what happened, but I really only have the 1 shoe worth of information. Do casinos really exist that a player can consistently, blatantly count cards and not get banned?

If that player is using an anemic spread of 1 to 7.5 at a crowded $2 six-deck table, I'd say he could get away with it forever in a lot of casinos. Of course, he won't be making any money, which is why he can get away with it. I would suggest that you use a much bigger spread and take it to whatever limit your bankroll can afford. Would you rather play for endless hours with an EV of around zero, or would you rather play for limited hours with an EV that is positive? I'd pick the latter. If you are worried about escaping the heat for another player, then your approach is far too timid if your goal is to make money.

I don't know why the other guy was playing in the fashion you describe, but at least he was getting the money in the betting square when the time came to do it.

It seems that the only thing everybody can agree on is that a 7.5:1 bet spread is really small. Note that I usually play 2 hands, but I was limited to 1 hand at this table because there was only 1 spot open. Luckily, the player next to me bowed out just as a hit my max bet and got to spread to 2 hands.

In my previous post, many seemed to be surprised that I had been barred from so many casinos. I live in a place where the maximum bet is either $100 or $300, and there is usually only a single blackjack table in each casino. I limit sessions to 45 minutes. My bet spread is usually 2 hands of 10:1 8 deck games, 7.5:1 on 6 deck games, and 5:1 or 6:1 on 2 deck games.

I've been barred from casinos after 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, and 9 trips. Some I've been to 16 times without heat. So on the one hand I'm too timid because my bet spread is being described as small, but on the other hand I'm too aggressive because I've been banned from 10 casinos.

Don't take anything I've written as defensive. Let's assume that I'll eventually get barred from every casino that I play at. If my goal is to extract as much money from the casino as possible, we want to maximize the product of (win rate) x (hours played). I figured my bet spread was just about right to do this. Let's do a survey, if you came across a table like I've described, and your max bet at 2x$150, what would your minimum bet be? Also, what would your session length be?

One maximum bet cycle. Play 1x5 to 2x150 and leave after the 2x150 shoe is done win or lose.

Let's do a survey, if you came across a table like I've described, and your max bet at 2x$150, what would your minimum bet be? Also, what would your session length be?

I wouldn't be playing at a table like you've described, so my max bet and session lengths would be zero.

Boot's right, don't play at a full table.

The counter you saw is effectively using a 1-3 spread, he is not too much of a threat to the casino. I am assuming the PB and/or security know what they're doing and have assessed the situation.

If less than two others or a third player (on life support) were playing I may wong in at a positive count. Assuming proper BR, good pen, and a house advantage of say .6% (a $1 dollar table is probably H17.) I may bet: $5 @ TC 0,1; $10 @ TC2; $25 @ TC3; $50 @ TC4; 2X$75 @ TC5; 2X$150 @ TC6. Taking Hockeydad's advice if I hit TC6 or if being watched by pit spreading up to 2 hands at TC5, (or if pit takes interest in you after a phone call, after that.) Before actually playing my theoretical spread above, I would sim it, and decide from there.

Assuming my play was not interrupted with TC6 or 5 as above or a negative TC, 45 minutes sounds right.

Honestly though, my theoretical 1-20 spread might be a bit aggressive for most stores. Considering the lack of heat on the other player, you might be able to get away with it there. Also depends on your act.

If my goal is to extract as much money from the casino as possible, we want to maximize the product of (win rate) x (hours played). I figured my bet spread was just about right to do this. Let's do a survey, if you came across a table like I've described, and your max bet at 2x$150, what would your minimum bet be? Also, what would your session length be?

Probably your goal is a little narrower: to extract as much money from the casino as possible within some kind of reasonable timeframe and within risk parameters you're comfortable with. If the timeframe weren't an issue you could play very very short sessions for years and years, never giving them a real chance to take a steady look at you. If you were comfortable with a tiny tiny edge (and the high risk of ruin accompanying it) you could also probably play for years. What are your goals? Once you know your goals you can know how to play. You sound like you're on the right path -- keep asking.