novice card counter- system suggestions

I'm new to this forum and am a relatively new BJ enthusiast( 1 year's worth). I know simple basic strategy perfectly and routinely play 6-deck shoes.I usually love/ occasionally abhor this damned game but want to improve. I'm interested in learning a count system that can be applied under casino conditions without experiencing an emotional aneurysm..ie..a good starter system. I have a ton of apparently credible info on many of these options and have settled on three potential unbalanced, single-level protocols..the KO, KISS system/s, and the Red 7 counts. As I understand these, their application, initially at least, don't require true conversion/ side counts. Yet, it appears as 'starter' systems they provide for reasonable BE, PE, and overall accuracies(relative to the balanced or multi-level systems). I'd like some input from your perspective. Additionally,
I'd appreciate any comments regarding lucky/ unlucky 'streaks'..ie card personality (how one's performing against the dealer,etc.) I've read considerably about expected losses , standard deviations, 'wild swings', etc. In my limited experience, it appears that this aspect of the game may be more important than emphasized in the literature
that I've seen..'stop-loss' suggestions?..This area may fall under the 'arty' side of the game..thanks..

Personally, I prefer KO out of the unbalanced systems you mentioned, but that's simply a personal preference.

I'd appreciate any comments regarding lucky/ unlucky 'streaks'..ie card personality (how one's performing against the dealer,etc.) I've read considerably about expected losses , standard deviations, 'wild swings', etc. In my limited experience, it appears that this aspect of the game may be more important than emphasized in the literature
that I've seen..'stop-loss' suggestions?..This area may fall under the 'arty' side of the game..thanks..

The problem with streaks is that they are wild and unpredictable. You can't base a system of play on streaks, whether they be winning streaks or losing streaks. Whatever "streak" you are in can end on the next hand.

I'm not sure what you mean about "card personality," or "performance against a dealer." For all practical purposes, the dealer is just a dealing machine. There are dealers who can be exploited if they mispay hands or flash the hole card. There are dealers who might be cheaters. There are dealers who might shuffle-up on you or half-shoe you if they think you are counting cards. There are dealers who might rat you out to the pit. There are dealers who give good penetration and those who give bad penetration. These can all be factors in determining what dealer you choose. But in an honest straight-up game, the dealer doesn't matter except in terms of dealing speed. You don't win hands because of the dealer and you don't lose hands because of the dealer.

I do not recommend the use of stop losses or win limits. If the playing conditions are favorable, you play as long as you want and as long as you have money to play with. You might leave a table because you are tired. You might leave to avoid a backoff or barring, and you might have a pre-set time limit for this reason. You might leave because you are hungry or have another commitment. But don't leave based on some arbitrary stop loss or win limit you have set. To make money as a card counter, you have to put in the time at the tables. Setting artificial and arbitrary stop losses or win limits interferes with that basic tenet and simply makes getting to the long run longer. It won't make you win more or lose less.

You might want to read my book, Bootlegger's 200 Proof Blackjack. Hi-Lo is the system it uses, which is a balanced true count system, but the advice it gives is specifically designed for novice players. For KO, you should purchase Knock-Out Blackjack by Vancurra and Fuchs. Both books are available from the catalog on this site. I would also suggest that you subscribe to Green Chip on this site. There is a wealth of information available at a low price. It is worth the investment for any novice who is going to put his money at risk at the blackjack tables.

Your response is appreciated. I've read your book and Vancura's as well. Obviously, reading some literature is just introductory, though informative, I wanted some comments from some seasoned BJ players.
My references to 'card personality' and 'performance against the dealer'(whom, of course, we win or lose to on each hand/ all hands) was intended to relate to lucky/unlucky card streaks..those wild swings. From my reading and limited experience , it's obvious that
EV's and wins/losses are all mathematically based on the"long-haul",
thousands of hands to approach expected win rates with card counting
systems(even though we might sit down and win 65-70% of our hands on a given session). Expert play in all areas (including not getting outted, apparently) that arrives at a 2% overall advantage over the house
would land us at about as good a position as we could expect on average(would you agree?). I suppose my point is (regarding the negative swings/ higher losses segments) there still exists an 'arty'
(NOT hunches) element to this game..ie, a comfort zone for each individual player, despite the count(the count is +6 and I've lost
6 hands in a row..that's uncomfy for me at this stage..my best stop
-loss system here is to get my ass outta there). Any further comments would be appreciated..and thanks...

I think the "art" in the game of blackjack has to do with being able to keep playing when you have an advantage. As for when to bet or what plays to make, it is not a matter of art, it is a matter of science.

While you may have some self-described comfort level, the fact is that if the count is high, and this is the only information you have, you put your money out there, regardless of how many hands you just lost, unless you have reason to believe you are being cheated, in which case you should have left long before the count got high. If you leave the table in high counts, you are simply lowering the percentage of time you are playing with an advantage while raising the percentage of time you are playing at a disadvantage. If you leave the table after a losing streak, who is to say that this streak won't continue at the next table? The odds of it continuing won't change because you left one table.

There can be exceptions to this rule if you are using more advanced tactics like shuffle-tracking, but I'm talking about straight counting here.

Thanks again..As you've likely surmised, I'm a conservative bettor, at least at this point. I think your suggestions are likely right..ie..when the count's high (assuming I haven't screwed up said count by making errors, which will likely occur early in my 'training') I have to weather the storm..trust the math..no balls/ no babies..hang in there,etc. What we haven't addressed is the total session bankroll element..I very likely need to increase mine to
"trust the count" through these downswings. I play 10.00 tables(usually with a 1-5 bet spread)..those with the best rules I can find. Were I to anticipate playing a one-hour session, what would be your suggestion as to minimum bankroll? I realize there's charts/ tables on this..but..what do you suggest?..Thanks very much..

I can't answer your question without more information. How many decks? What are the rules and penetration?

Unless you are playing single deck, I'd suggest that you are not using a big enough spread. You have to be willing to put the money out there when you have the advantage. If you're not willing to do that, there is really no point in counting cards.

Boot, first let me say that I have your book, and I think it's a great addition to the literature, well written and well presented.
Bernie should definitely get it.

In the post above you said: "To make money as a card counter, you have to put in the time at the tables. Setting artificial and arbitrary stop losses or win limits interferes with that basic tenet and simply makes getting to the long run longer. It won't make you win more or lose less."

I've been reading "Blackjack in Colour - How Blackjack Works", and while targets and stop losses have no effect for a basic strategy player, the charts there in Chapter 14.1 show that they do have significant negative effect for a card counter.

Would you agree?

I haven't seen the reference you mentioned, but I'd agree. While I don't know what the chart says, I probably should have qualified my statement about winning more or losing less. If it reduces the number of hands you will play, it would have a negative effect. If using a stop loss or win limit would take you away from positive count situations, it would also have a negative effect.

Bootlegger..Typically, I play 6-deck shoe games (no CSM's)/3:2 payoffs

H17,da,DAS,rsa,no surrender allowed

Thanks for all your informed assistance! I realize I need to expand my typical 1-5 bet spread on 6 deckers (ie 1-8,1-10..?)Up to this point, you'll recall that Ive just been using simple basic strategy. After I gain more advantage with the absorption & practice of a count sytem, I
realize I'll have to increase my bets when my advantage level dictates. Thanks..and your book was helpful..good tips there.

My recommendation would be to not play this game at all. If you live in Southern California, make an occasional trip to Las Vegas. If you insist on playing this game, you need to spread a lot more than 1-5 or even 1-12.

Using KO and optimum betting, an s17, das game with 4.5 decks of penetration would earn you a whopping $3.30 an hour with a $10 unit. I used BJRM for this figure. It doesn't include RSA, but that would be worth a few extra pennies per hour. A $500 bank would give you a little more than a 5% risk of ruin for 100 hands.

If you spread 1-12, your expected profit goes up to $16.60 per 100 hands. To have a 5% ROR for 100 hands of play, you'd need to take $900 with you. If you spread 1-16, your expected profit goes to $23.30. For a 5% ROR for 100 hands, you'd need a trip bank of $1110.

Unfortunately, this is the best shoe game(about 75% pen) at the nearest casino(2 hrs away) I patronize. I'm aware that part of the AP protocol includes finding favorable-rules games..this is the best game option at this casino( strict AP approach would suggest don't play it,apparently..but it beats the slots). CBJN lists the house edge at approximately .56. All the tables are H17, and many of them have CSM's. I'm headed to Vegas in April for 8 days and will have ample opportunity to dive into this 'count experience'. My goal is to get thrown out of El Cortez, even though I know this too goes against AP protocol. Thanks for your unwavering suggestions on 'getting the money out there during advantage'..I hear ya. One last question and we'll bury this thread,and I sincerely appreciate your input on all
elements. When YOU were a novice BJ player/ card counter, what were your personal concerns/questions?..adios..

When YOU were a novice BJ player/ card counter, what were your personal concerns/questions?..adios..

It's been awhile and I don't remember all of the concerns I had at the time. I remember being concerned with just keeping the count straight. I didn't know much about optimal betting or the proper betting spreads to use for multiple deck games. At the time, most of the literature was designed for the single deck player and even when some of the books talked about shoe games, they didn't really describe proper betting strategies. But optimal betting wasn't really a concern because I was too ignorant about it to know any better. I knew that in order to win, you had to put the money out there when you had the advantage, but I really didn't know how to properly size my bets or the kinds of spreads needed for multiple deck games.

I was concerned about getting backed off or barred, and I didn't need to be. My betting levels were too small for barrings and backoffs to be much of a threat.

.. you meant that you hadn't seen this e-book, check it out at:

Learning how to count cards won't solve that abhorrence. Don't think that losing is superficial with BS and will be solved by a card count. It involves more time and money than you think. When you graduate from basic strategy to advantage player, you�ll realize abhorrence is just more profound.

�I suppose my point is (regarding the negative swings/ higher losses segments) there still exists an 'arty'
(NOT hunches) element to this game..ie, a comfort zone for each individual player, despite the count(the count is +6 and I've lost
6 hands in a row..that's uncomfy for me at this stage..my best stop
-loss system here is to get my ass outta there) �

I hear your point. Your point is well taken. It�s probably the most important aspect of your post and it�s THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EXAMPLE THAT�S CONTINUALLY IGNORED HERE.

YOU CAN�T MAKE THIS WORK.

Thanks, Dave Jay. Yeah, I can visualize that any substantial losing swing despite a "perfect" count application (including deviations from normal BS when the count dictates) might still piss me off,sure.
All the pertinent, credible BJ references warn us to remain unemotional and just trust the math..the long haul will eventually pay off. Maybe with time one can assume they'd find good games(rules, etc) and would be able to perfect their counting skills and thereby gain a 'comfort' zone..one that would allow us to still enjoy playing the game. If it ceases to be enjoyable (defined in multiple ways, depending on the individual player), why play it? It goes against human nature to 'enjoy' losing money..and like in any other profession BJ players are all made up differently. I can still visualize a point in the future where I'll continue to like and enjoy this game even during losing streaks. Do YOU still enjoy the game?
Does it bore you occasionally/often?..Thanks for the input