New to counting - need advice!

Would like to know if the following system and conditions yields a positive expectation and if so, how much is advantage? (Couldn't find a good simulator to tell me)

Count method is (2 thru 6 = +1, 10 thru A = -1, 7-9 are neutral)

Conditions:

6 Deck Shoe
Dealer stands on any 17
Can double down on any hand
Can double after any split pair except Aces
No surrender
BJ pays 3:2
Insurance available on dealer Ace

Thanks for your help!!

That's a very important factor in answering your question.

Do you mean: How much will I increase the bet when true count is >2? I usually double my bet at +2 and usually add another unit bet when count goes up by another +2 and so on.... If you can recommend a proper way to vary the bet under these conditions, please do!

Also, I try to limit myself to tables where there are no more than four people involved, including the dealer. (Does this matter?)

As I said, I'm new. I've got the actual counting part down pretty well, but need to learn the how other factor of the game (proper betting, penetration, etc. affect my advantage.

Thanks!!

I'll give you the bad news first. Your expected win rate is around $0.60 per hour. Your risk of ruin on a $4000 bankroll is around 70%. This is a pretty poor game if they don't consistently give you a good 1.5 deck cutoff. You need to spread your bets from at least 1-16 units (I'd recommend going 1-20) to make this worth your while.

Of course, I'm assuming you're trying to make some money here. If you are just trying to make blackjack a little bit more fun and give yourself a small edge then (with perfect play) you've done that.

The good news? I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by switching to Geico...

Kol'Chak!
Anubis

Are you saying vary the spread based on what the count happens to be at the time? Do you have guidance regarding how much to spread when count is +2, +4, +6 and so on?

Guidance yes. However, I feel like I'm giving you a bazooka and telling you how to fire it without telling you which end the explosive is going to come out of.

I think the best guidance I can give you is that you have much to learn before you're really ready to give this a go. But you're in the right place. I'd get a subscription to Green Chip, a copy of JA's BJRM, and learn about stuff like risk of ruin, Kelly/optimum betting, standard deviation, and above all else - practice and develop a "persona"

However, I'll answer your question and this is right out of BJRM. Playing HiLo on a 6D shoe w/S17 DAS and 4.5/6D pen I would vary from:

TC : Units Bet
0 or less : 1
1 : 3
2 : 8
3 : 2 hands of 6
4 or more : 2 hands of 8

This would yield an hourly win rate of around $13.70. Playing for 4 hours you'd have a 1 in 3 chance of losing a $500 trip stake. Your total risk of ruin for a $5000 bankroll is about 18%.

Now you've got the firecracker. Go blow yourself up with it. Or better yet, follow my first advice and prepare a little bit more before that damn standard deviation devil hits you hard (and it will, trust me and ask anyone here) because when it does - you'll need all the confidence, training, and preparation you can muster to keep yourself from quitting.

Ral'Tor'Kee
Anubis

a program (Blackjack Risk Manager) based on formulas from Schlesinger's 'Blackjack Attack', as well as help from people such as DD', Mathprof, and Richard Reid.

Trust me. Subscribe to Green Chip. The $12/quarter or whatever it is now is what - 2 units to you? The archived posts in there are worth their weight in yellow chips for all the $$$ they will save you over time. I think there's even an archived post in there about a "course curriculum" for a starting cardcounter.

I'm not trying to advertise for our illustrious owners & operators here, but I do fear for you a little bit. The game is tough when the getting is good, and it sounds like you're in an area of the country where the games are not too good.