Negative flux

I know that there is no such thing as "luck" in pro blackjack, it is substituted instead by the fancy term "fluctuation". There is positive fluctuation and there is negative fluctuation. I have been playing blackjack for 4 years now and Im finally seeing the negative fluctuation side of it. You guys must be thinking WOW. Well yeah and Im thinking Im lucky to have made money at this game. Now I realize all the agony that comes with losing streaks that I guess one must endure If they play this game for any length of time. To the MORE experienced players than me, I have but one question?

Question: Are you supposed to play for tiny stakes until the positive curve comes back?

Now Im really scared because I just realized I was on the other side of the curve for 4 years, which means.. yeah thats right I can be on the negative curve for 4 years, I really wonder If I should quit this game while Im up, I love playing blackjack but I remember what it felt like to be down and I never want to be down again. Schlesinger was absolutely correct when he said "This game will test your soul"

Now I know it more than you could ever Imagine

One ex "hot as a pistol" now turned "cold as an Ice cube"
Adrien

P.S Oh please gods of blackjack give all us counters the positive flux and let the gamblers reap thy negative.

provided your bankroll hasn't dropped to the point that it requires downward resizing. You bet based on your advantage and bankroll size...not based on how the cards are running.

>Are you supposed to play for tiny stakes until the positive curve comes back?

The "curve" doesn't "come back" -- at any given moment the trend could be up or down, and not until later when you are analyzing your play does the fluctuation emerge. bigplayer is right -- you always play the same, and in the long run you will be ahead.

-hd.

Hey. Don't know how you play but make sure you always make the optimal bet so you at least have the best chance of winning. Compute your optimal bet for +1 TC, +2, TC etc. I use CVCX but I understand that you can use John Auston's Program or blackjack attack, too. How often a year do you play by the way? 4 years is a long time to be consistently winning that much.

We speak of a fluctuation when the outcome of a game contradicts the mathematical prediction over a certain period.
So when you say, "I had a positive flux for 4 years, I might as well have a negative one for 4 years" this is not quite correct:
I guess your winning over 4 years was normal and can therefore not be considered as a positive fluctuation.
I have been playing professionnally for more than 8 years and the longest period I have ever experienced before reaching a new all-time-high has lasted 15 months.
Conclusion: I think you don't need to be as worried as you are.

Francis Salmon

I dont want you to think that I have been winning for 4 years straight, I have had ups and downs ( the roller coaster ) which is normal for this game right, thats just the nature of it. I play for small stakes (red chips) and have so far made $7,000. I was up to $12,000 at one point but suffered the "Icarus" syndrome If you know what I mean. I did'nt last long up there and soon was returned to my rightful place. To finally answer your question Voodoo I play an average of 240-300 hours a year (5-7 hours a week). Not much really is it?

The curve doesn't necessarily come back regardless of what has happened in the past.

Mathematics scholars tell us that if we flip a coin indefinitely it should average 50/50. The operative word 'should'. If however the results get lop-sided, which they often do, it doesn't necessarily mean it will eventually come back to 50/50.

Therefore, given you had 4 years of good doesn't mean you will not have another 4 years of good.

Keep your head on straight and put all your mental efforts into your game. Don�t allow your mental capacity to be wasted thinking negative thoughts.

C'mon now...sure, you heard the stories... but it was never going to happen to you, right?

Relinquishing a red chip bankroll is not the end of the world, but extended losing periods really suck. You could have a year of mounting losses, like Jojo. {:-) All of us have seen a couple of seemingly endless losses.

Let it sink in that if you are insufficiently bankrolled in the medium term you could get wiped out. But your success is not going on permanent hiatus. You will always have those smart cards you played in the past to replace the memories of the dreck you are now being dealt. The dearth of ugly shoes will not last, either. The problem is the hours you need to play in getting past the deadliest of fluctuations. You can't throw extra hours at the game if you are like me. So get some wisdom and let's cut your minimum bet and expand the betting spread and possibly accelerate the ramp. You need to put in the hours at a SD or DD game with smaller fluctuations in bet sizing. Take a week and play some cheap games with great rules and your enthusiasm will return....along with greater profits both short and long term. Yes, I am huckstering the trip to Robinsonville and better games. You could make some new friends who understand what can be done to help. You could shorten the time it takes to get to NO on your bankroll.

My changing cash account has given me fits. Every time I lose another 5k it makes me crazy. Sometimes for an entire day. I lost my hard-earned nickel bank when I moved to $15 minimums. When it grew to quarters, the trip to Tunica in the spring broke my cash repository in half. It took me months to get to a ATH again. Where I now reside is 30% down from this figure... I have been out your 42% ( 7/12's) and more several times in just a couple of years.

Go somewhere you can play aggressively at small stakes and improve your edge. The drama of a blackjack holiday will remind you what there is to love about this game.

And Stanford Wong was right in his interview about this site from the movie "The Hot Shoe". He said that even though you dont know the person directly, you can still come on here write a post and "feel like you have a friend". Which is the way I feel about most of the posters on here.