Aw, you were doing so well there . . .
. . . until you got to the part about the 50% pen. A S17 DAS double deck game only has an off-the-top edge of .19%, but the poor pen means that you will not see positive counts very often, so when you do, you must spread ruthlessly. This means a big spread, which means a lot of variance, which is probably what you meant by risk.
I would spread $5-$40, dropping down to the $3 min in negative counts if you can get away with it.
Or better yet, find a game with better pen. Despite the good rules, this one is just about unplayable.