I play a practice game w/ my girlfriend as the dealer. When i'm dealt a soft doubling hand (eg. A,7 vs. 4 or A,6 vs. 4), i proceed to follow basic strategy. She (not knowing any strategy) finally had enough and asked me "why would you double that when you already had 17 or 18". The only thing i can come up w/ is that the dealer is most likely to bust with a 4-6. Help!
bac
The reason we double those soft hands is because it has been mathematically proven that doubling makes us more money over the long run than hitting or standing.
You are mostly correct that the reason it works out this way is because the dealer is likely to bust. But we also win a few hands by drawing a small card to beat the dealer as well.
The % of busting and the chances of improving your hand make this +ev bets. With A-6 you would hit anyway and actually win more then 50% of your hands. If you can win more then 50% why not double?
A-7 is a bit more complicated. I don't know the perfect math but i try: 18 is already a winninghand ! But you will have a winninghand more then 50% even if you double. A-2-3 and all 10 valuecards give you a winninghand again. Some even a better! I don't know the exact numbers but think about it; If you do not double and win let's say 55 out of 100 trials you are up 10 bets. Now lets say you double and only win 54 times you still make more money !! (8 bets double) 16 bets
Maybe someone can come up with the right numbers here.
Good luck
The fact that the dealer is likely to bust with the 4-6 upcard, coupled with the possibility that we may draw a small card and improve our hand (and a 10 won't hurt it), means that we have a positive expectiation on this hand. So if we can get more money on the table (by doubling), it is in our best interest to do so.
By doubling soft 18, we will actually lose a few more hands than we would by standing. However, we will still win more than we lose, and since we win twice as much money by doubling, the net result is that we win more money.
My personal favorite explanation: "The computer says that, in the long run, we win more money by doubling." 'Nuff said.
REMEMBER- GIGO!
Or travel anywhere by air, or any number of other common occurances in contemporary life. Whether you like it or not, computers are now involved in some way in almost every aspect of your life.
When are you going to join the 21st century, Frank?
..or look in the dictionary under
Luddite see Frank Stanton
I spent five years installing computer systems for hospitals all over the country. Any lab tests you have done now depend on a computer to collect the results from the test equipment and report them to your doctor. Your medical history is most likely no longer on paper, but stored electronically. Medications you are given are checked for drug interactions and reactions by computer. X-Rays are now delivered to the operating room via digital image. If you stay in a hospital for any length of time, you are literally betting your life on computers.
Does that matter?
Or, if one played unlike what you've elected to play (based on what the computer says) what would you say?
Soft doubling is a tough one to understand. Take A7 vs. 6. If you get a ten, it doesn't affect your hand. Getting A,2, or 3 improves your hand, but getting 4,5,6,7,8, or 9 makes your hand worse! Therefore it seems that you shouldn't double: twice as many cards make your hand worse as make it better. And in fact, that's the truth (as Parker said): if you take a hit, you will, on average, make your hand worse. So why should you double?
In exchange for making your hand worse, you are given the chance to put more money on the table, so even if you make your hand worse, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Would you rather have $10 riding on a hand that has an edge of 28%, or have $20 riding on a hand with an edge of 19%? The first hand is worth $2.80, while the second is worth $3.80! That sort of thing occurs with soft doubles. (In fact, those percentages are the exact numbers under consideration for A7 vs. 6 in a six-deck, S17 game!)
Whenever you double-down, you are giving up the flexibility of making your hand as good as possible, but in exchange, you are allowed to put more money down. If it's basic strategy to double down, it's because the one effect outweighs the other. That's it.
Lefty
The computer in my car kept the light coming on "Service Soon" and it wouldn't go off. Car was checked and serviced. The light kept coming on. Other repairs were done. "Service Soon" light came again. Accordingly, I continued driving the car for months and months with that light on.
Smog check time came and the smog tester said he won't do it unless the the "Service Soon" light is FIRST taken care of. I said no! Suggested to test first and if it fails to meet the reqs, proceed with required repairs. He accepted and went on with the smog test and repairs made also for "Service Soon" problem. They said it was a circuit problem only. They said they fixed the problem. Few days later the "Service Soon" light came back again...
Not only a case of GIGO, but also computer could malfunction like any other machine.
PS: I forgot to mention that even the computer had to be replaced few years ago, trying to solve an AC problem in the car!
on the road- nobody can fix it. Today you can't even reduce the idle
speed that is set at 750 rpm-MUCH too fast for automatic transmissions. The charge to replace is obscene. Unfortuneatly the
spector of O'Toole's Rules applies.
the 10, J, Q, K do not change the value of the hand, so getting the A, 2, 3, 10, J, Q, K either improves your hand or does not change the value. 7 out of 13 cards are good for you. only 6 out of 13 will make the hand worse. The cards are in your favor to hit.
O'Toole said that Murph was a big optimist, therefore he (O'toole)would garantee anything that Murph said could happen;
would happen in the worst possible way at the worst possible time, for
as long as it was inconvenient. This is, if you will the opisite side
of "The Theory of Probabliity" O'toole is as unknown as the two Frogs
that came up with the prob theory, However nearly everyone is aware of
Murphy's Laws. These are nothing more than the Preponderance of
possibilities that affect our lives. O'Toole asures us that Murphy
has his foot planted right in the middle of "THE Basic Strategy."
Those who live, prepared for the affects of O'Toole's Rules can be
pleasently surprised. Those who do not-will be miserable.
DIE in HOSPITALS than anywhere else.
not me
Does that matter?
Not in the slightest. What is the long term, except for the sum of a lot of short terms?
Suppose that I were betting on a coin toss, except that I found out that the coin was biased and heads would come up 1% more often than tails. Now, if I could make many thousands (or better yet, millions) of bets on this coin, I would be just about certain of showing a long term profit by betting heads.
But suppose I could only make one bet. Now it is not such a good money-making opportunity, it is more like gambling. The edge is tiny, and just about anything could happen on that single toss. But does this mean that I should bet tails, simply because I will not be around for the "long term?" I think not.
Or, if one played unlike what you've elected to play (based on what the computer says) what would you say?
I would say, "Hey, it's your money."
