More progression nonsense

Before we go any further, I know progressions do not pay dividends in the long run.

However I was wondering, trying to convnce my partner also, that if she were to play a progression at roullette she would be no worse off in the long run than foat betting and parlaying as she now does. ( I have tried getting her off of the wheel but it just aint happening !! )

I figure that if she plays a progression she could on occassion win, soemthing very alien to her ! and score more comps than she currently does.

Any body have any thoguhts on this ?

I can't recommend a progression just to make winning sessions more frequent. To increase the frequency of winning sessions you must also increase the severity of losing sessions. Furthermore, progressions increase her average bet size. You want her to bet as little as possible.

But if you can use a progression to convince her to play just one or two numbers at a time, and not coat the entire table with chips, then this could be good because it increases her variance. The more numbers she plays on each spin, the less her variance is. If she does that, no wonder she never wins.

if she does as you suggest, then the theoretical expected loss will be accelerated.

If she flat bets with no increase, she will eventually reach the theoretical expected loss.

If she continues to bet as she does now, the theoretical expected loss will be a little less.

She's damed to lose either way.

North wind,

I do share the view that she is damned whatever she does by playing the wheel. I just thought that by playing some kind of martingale, I was actually thinking of a martingale +1 ie 1,3,7,15...

I just figured that at least this way she will garner more comps than she currently does by virtue of the fact that she will have, on occassion, larger bets out on the table.

In the long term the house edge is going to come through but I do think that on occassion she will have a winning session playing a martingale rather than slowly bleeding to death night after night LOL

A martingale as you suggest will no doubt result in many small wins, but when it hits the fan, and it will, she will have one devastating loss that will wipe it all out and more. Do you really want to take the blame for that?

In the end, she will lose the house advantage times the total number of dollars bet. If using a martingale means she will have a larger average bet than her current style of betting, then she will lose it sooner.

Her BR for the weekend is like $3000. Once gone it's gone and she gambles no more.

The martingale I proposed (10,30,70,150,310,630,1270) would give her 7 'chances' to hit a win ( she normally plays the odd/even)

I realise that if she has more money on the table she stands to lose quicker, but in the short term anything can happen, and I think she is more likely to win $x in a weekend by flying close to the wind than slowly bleeding to death hour after hour after hour.

If she makes only even money bets, Oscars Grind is as safe as it gets. I sometimes use D'Alembert on a choppy CSM bj table, it was developed by Europeans for Roulette. However they have but one zero and sometimes "en prison" which drops ev to 25% of the more than -5% that the American wheel costs you! Either way it will be a nice profit on most nights and a Tsunami every month or so!

"Her BR for the weekend is like $3000. Once gone it's gone and she gambles no more.

The martingale I proposed (10,30,70,150,310,630,1270) would give her 7 'chances' to hit a win ( she normally plays the odd/even)

I realise that if she has more money on the table she stands to lose quicker, but in the short term anything can happen, and I think she is more likely to win $x in a weekend by flying close to the wind than slowly bleeding to death hour after hour after hour."

I understand what you are saying, and you know your wife, but IMO if she happens to win a couple times right off the bat using a martingale and then hits the big 3k loser, don't you think she may want more bankroll? Variations of marty can be very enticing to anyone and especially enticing to first time users that win.

I would strongly suggest to let her continue to slowly bleed to death as you described instead of getting her hooked on marty. But like I said, you know your wife.

Just my opinion and musings... sorry for butting in.

Gary

you know how to win before you approach the game. If you want more comps, ask the pit boss before playing and if he says no, have a discussion with each other in front of him,about going to play somewhere else. Having a bunch of bills in your hand to buy into the game won't hurt. With a 5.26% advantage, he'll think twice before he lets you go.

The bet spread is important, only if it's tied to some advantage. If there is no apparent advantage, then choose the smallest bet spread possible.
The bet spread is very important, but one bet spread doesn't fit all players and bankrolls.

I could give a much better answer, but it has implications far beyond this game. In light of what I know, I must protect my advantage and avoid any discussions that may compromise it. Also, when posting, I have to be very careful and not intentionally mislead anyone by saying
anything that's contrary to my advantage.

http://gambling.projectsydney.com/viewtopic.php?t=763
Link to a roulette system that looks like it will do a fantastic job at winning virtually every session. Of course it could bust out, but the system requires less then a $1K bankroll so your wife can play roulette for a long time before going broke.

As the subject said, thanks for all the replies. Something quite monumental has now occurred and she will not be playing a martingale, infact she will not be playing roullette AT ALL !! After reading your replies she has realised what a no brainer the wheel is, what have I been saying for the past couple fo years ???.

She will now embark on a weekend of Pai Gow Poker, I sent her off to work today with the wizard of odds article on playing Pai Gow for profit and a couple of other downloaded articles. Who knows perhaps with another 2 years of 'persuassion' she will become an A.P