Anyone have any thoughts and approximations for what the minimal bankroll needed so i am not overbetting. DD s17, das, 50%pen, no surrender, min bet 3$, 1-8 betting spread. so max bet of 25$ I am curious to know what everyones opinion is on this. thanks
Bankroll is a function of risk tolerance as well as bet size... what risk would you like to take that you lose your entire bankroll? 5%? 2%?
5% risk of losing, any thoughts??
Someone with "Blackjack Risk Manager" or similar software will (hopefully) run this for you...
Off the cuff, spreading $3-$25 at a standard DD, 5% ROR is about $2000 Bankroll.
S17 DD DAS $3 minimum???
Tell me where it's at, I'll move there. Especially if there's more than one table at the casino.
Sounds like low-roller heaven, despite the pen.
Jay
for 1-8 spread $3 unit with 5% risk...you'll make $6.18 per hour.
is thier any websites or calcualators that calcualate bankroll. thanks
jay im assumin your from vegas, stay there. its 0 degrees here right now.
Things aren't necessarily so. We're talking about gambling here. But, it would be nice if one could obtain insurance for that $6.18 per hour return. In real life, working at McDonald's is a more dependable and steady source of income. Besides, no br is required.
I find applying the logic of "hourly" returns to gambling not a sound basis of comparison based on formulas that do not factor most of the other important variables. Real gambling is too different. It involves many other factors that are not included as variables in the formula. One outcome could be br ruin based on other factors not in the formula.
Therefore, the $2838 br based on a formula could be misleading... As if that makes the gambler foolproof against the loss of that entire br. Gambling is based on probabilities in numbers but it does not factor in the dynamic of the human element. It also is dependent on performance, luck, changing of the game, environment, etc.
IMO, taking that kind of br to the tables is also contrary to the prudent approach. The formula is not the entire answer but only a limited one. Furthermore, one should not risk more than what one can "afford to lose".
May be one could work back from the total amount (per session?) one could afford to and then look for the optimum br and reach the min. and max betting numbers in units. Does that make sense to you?
The question was: given a game of DD s17, das, 50%pen, no surrender, min bet 3$, 1-8 betting spread. so max bet of 25$ what is the bankroll required to insure, given the above rules and conditions, and the specified bet ranges, that I only have a 5% risk of going completely broke?
The answer is $2838 minimum. More money starting out will lower the risk of losing all, and increasing the bet levels will increase the hourly return of $6.18 that this bank roll and bet level will return.
Of course there are other factors. You could get hit over the head and robbed of your entire bankroll before you step in the casino. Should this risk be factored into the equation?
Of course their is no 'insurance'. That is stated. You have a 5% chance of losing everything. If you play 10 hours you are not going to have $61.80 profit. That hourly figure is just an 'average' over a long term period. But it is necessary.
Without some measure of Dollars per Time Period, how can you evaluate different investments or choices? Which would you choose: a high risk venture that makes you $10, or a very low risk venture that makes you $100? $100 you say? Sorry, I forgot to tell you, the $100 return matures in 30 years, while the $10 return is possible every 10 seconds. Ahhh! Now we see where time in regards to investment and return is important.
To rationally compare investments you need to have measures of $ return/time/risk. Yes, a job at McDonalds is more steady and less risky. Of course, they could fire you from that 'steady' job and then what? And after you have gotten the $6.18 return from that McDonald's job, can you then add that into your bankroll, and parlay that job into a $25 an hour job?
Do I take my $2838 bankroll and invest it into a savings account for a very low risk return of 3% in 6 months? Or do I take a 5% risk and invest it into blackjack for a 100% return in the same time period?
Or do I forget the whole thing and work at McDonald's for the rest of my life for $6.18 an hour? No mathematical formula is going to answer any of these questions, it can just put things in terms and quantities so that you can compare and decide.
Notice I never used the word 'gambling' in any of the above. When I buy a bond from GE, I am gambling that they will make money and be able to pay the stated interest on the bond. There is a risk they could go broke, and I lose all my money. Investing money in Bonds, stocks, commercial paper, mutual funds, even putting it in the bank, is gambling. They all have certian risks and returns. The nice thing about blackjack is, it is not dependent on consumer tastes, currency fluctuations, interest rates, or other outside sources. The things that effect your return in blackjack are all pretty much concrete, predictable, and measurable.
If I buy a $10 share of stock that pays a 3% dividend, does my broker tell me I would get a better hourly return working at McDonalds? Does he say if I worked at McDonalds I wouldn't need the $10 to begin with?
You're right that the original question was framed based on those parameters.
Let me ask then this, if you don't mind. Lets have a 1-5 spread with same conditions and raise the risk to 10%.
Could you take a session br of 500, and 1000 units. What kind of results and betting the formula suggests?
Perhaps someone will make a run with BJRM (BlackJack Risk Manager) for you. Or you can purchase the software yourself. Another software product would be SBA (Statistical Blackjack Analyzer) which I believe can do the job. Another alternative is to use the risk of ruin charts in the book, "Blackjack Attack" by Don Schlesinger, to find bankroll requirements for certain levels of risk. The Chapter 10 charts show a wide variety of games and gives 3 different spreads, 2 bankroll levels, and their associated risks.
The problem is the formula basically has three variables given a specific game. Your bet spread, Your bankroll, risk of ruin. You supply two and the formula gives a the third. Examples: 1-5 unit spread, 400 unit bank, what is my risk of ruin OR 400 unit bank, only want 5% risk of ruin, what should I spread?
You have given all three. 1-5 spread, 500 or 1000 unit bank, 10% risk of ruin. I can ballpark it for you and tell you for the game in question: 2D S17 DAS 50% pen that a 500 unit bank with a 1-5 spread probably has a bit over a 10% risk of ruin and a 1000 unit bank would have less than a 5% risk.
The return would be lousy, less than 1/2 unit an hour. With such poor pen (50%) you need to have a larger spread to really make any money.
You will notice in the previous example, they are getting about a 2 unit per hour return because the spread is about 1-8. The approx. 750 unit bank gives a 5% risk.
I tried to find the book BJ Attack by Schlesinger as I know I bought it few years ago, but to no avail. As you may know, I buy books, start reading them... but usually do not continue to the end. So, I may have not have reached to read Chapter 10.
You are a good resource, SOTSOG. I appreciate the info.
unavailiable. Check the website. He is in the middle of discussions with Karel (of SBA), as a courtesy, for some kind of profit sharing related to the pre-canned one second sims in BJRM.
Things aren't necessarily so. We're talking about gambling here. But, it would be nice if one could obtain insurance for that $6.18 per hour return. In real life, working at McDonald's is a more dependable and steady source of income. Besides, no br is required.
I agree. The implication is that the $6.18 figure from blackjack is equivalent to an hourly wage. In fact an hourly wage would be worth about double that. We know this by calculating certainty equivalent, which is the amount of money in hard cash equivalent to a given positive expectation wager.
An alternative would be to use Brett Harris's N0 concept, the number of rounds needed to double a bankroll. Since most gamblers resize in accordance with their bankroll to some extent this figure makes more sense than a flat wage.
... I prefer Wendy's. ;-)
Have a good one.
ETF
Burger King!
