(Message Deleted by Poster)
Permit me an air of presumptuousness but with that size bankroll(whether or not it is of the replenishable variety), I would definitely use it for Spanish 21 as giving you your best chance to avoid blow-up. Normal BJ is just too damned volatile for such a smallish stake.
James Patterson,
I ran a 400-million hand sim in CVData for a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS game with 75% penetration for a HiLo counter using complete indexes with one other player at the table: since you failed to specify these variables, I simply guessed.
The counter uses your betting strategy: wongs in at +2, wongs out at 0, and bets $15 (3 $5 units) at +1 and $25 (5 $5 units) at +2 and up.
The results show you making 0.8382 units/hour (assuming you see 100 rounds per hour), with a standard deviation of 19.1731 units/hour. Since your bankroll is 500 units, your RoR is 10.21%.
Other stats: you play only 12.1% of the rounds (only 49,935,848 hands played, including splits, in 400,000,000 rounds seen), your action is $325.51/hr, your win rate is $4.19/hr, your IBA is 1.498%, your SCORE is 19.11, and your N0 is 52,326.
As you can tell, this method of increasing your BR would be a real grind!
If I guessed wrong on any of your game's particulars or your count strategy, let me know and I'll rerun the numbers for you... but unless the game is much, MUCH more liberal (say 5.5/6 pen, Surrender (late or, even better, early), 300 rounds/hr speed, etc.) the results aren't going to be significantly better.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
P.S. I'm a big fan of your novels!
You'll be making about $5/hr ( that's less than minimum wage ), and still you will have about a 10% chance of losing your whole bankroll.
Sorry.
-JA
Good games abound many places!
BTW, wish I had $2500 when I started...this is MORE than enough to grow a bank!
Regards,
PM
I guess your next advice is to tell him that with such a "great" bankroll he can allow himself to travel anywhere in the world for a good game...
How can you tell a player "Good games abound many places!" when is banroll is $2500 ?
James, work a few hours more at whatever you can and save a few bucks till you have decent money to play with.
How can you tell a player "Good games abound many places!" when is banroll is $2500 ?
I'm assuming a couple of things. He's a recreational player with an outside source of income and because of that source, has a replinshable bankroll! I believe most players start/play in this category. I did!
I started with a $500 bank and "traveled" to Tunica, Biloxi, Reno and Vegas on recreational trips to build my bank. I was NOT a serious player (anywhere close to full-time) then as I was learning. I had a job and BJ was a sideline, if you will.
Assuming James is in this category, why CAN'T he travel with a $2500 bank?
Now, if this assumption is incorrect, I would tell him to "rethink" what he's doing until he has a "substantal" bankroll and plenty to live on.
Regards,
PM
Sorry for not specifying what type of game I am playing. The rules are DAS, late surrender,DA2, S17. They also cut off 1.5 decks for both the 6 deck and 8 deck. I am also a HiLo counter useing all the indexes. I do have a job that is seperate from bj but I only make 10 an hour. I just graduated college and am looking for a better job to help build my bank but until then it builds really slow. So I guess my question now is should I wait until I save up to a certain amount to start and what would be a reasonable amount. Again thanks alot for all the responses it has been a great help.
James Patterson,
Ok, with Late Surrender your game is somewhat better than before. If you're willing to put out some larger bets, you can make a much higher hourly EV with nearly the same RoR.
These numbers are for 6D, S17, DA2, DAS, LS, with 4 total players at the table. Wong in at +1 (and wong out as soon as the count falls below +1). Use this 1:4 bet schedule:
TC Bet
+1 $15
+2 $20
+3 $30
+4 $40
+5 $50
+6 $60
TC Bet
+1 2x$10
+2 2x$15
+3 2x$20
+4 2x$30
+5 2x$35
+6 2x$40
According to the book I am currently reading it states that you should have a bankroll that allows for 100 max bets. For example if you have a $5,000 bankroll you should have a max bet of $50. You want to be able to have 100 max bets. This seems to go against what you are saying to do. Does your formula allow you to have more money on the table because it is split into 2 hands?
James Patterson,
The book you're reading is probably giving conservative bankroll advice for a "play-all" situation. When you wong in & out, thereby avoiding all the -EV rounds, you can afford to use a max bet that exceeds 1% of your bankroll: that's one of the advantages of wonging.
For example, in Don Schlesinger's BJA3, Chapter 10, Table 10.51 (page 240), for a 6D, S17, DAS, LS game with 4.5/6 pen, a play-all player using a 1:16 optimal spread needs a BR of 917 units for a RoR of 13.5%. Since his max bet is 16 units, that means his BR needs to be 917/16 = 57.3 max bets. On the other hand, a backcounter using an optimal 1:4 spread (and entering at +2) needs a BR of only 103 units for the same 13.5% RoR. Since his max bet is 4 units, his BR needs to be 103/4 = 25.75 max bets.
For example, if the BR is $10K, the play-all player will spread $11-$174, while the wonger will spread $97-$389. This means that the wonger can use a higher max bet than the "play-all" player for the same RoR.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Hey thanks alot all the info you have given me has been a great help. Really helped me look at it from a different point. I hope it didnt inconvenience you too much. Thanks again.
James Patterson
I actually just got 2 checks from work that paid me overtime that I had worked in the past. These 2 checks put me almost near $5,000. A few more weeks of saving and I will have a $5,000 bankroll that I can afford to use for bj so I think I will wait untill I have that bigger bankroll. For this bigger bankroll could I just double the numbers from the previous betting spread?
I went to the casino the other night and with thoes winnings and the backed pay from work I now have over $5000. With this new $5000 dollar bankroll would you still suggest the same bet spread just doubling the numbers or is there a better way to go about this now that I have more money?
James Patterson,
When I derived the betting schedules that I presented in the "Better Betting" post, I made certain assumptions about your goals:
1. That you wanted to keep your Risk of Ruin to about 10%
2. That you'd be uncomfortable betting a lot more than you had previously done.
3. That you prefer to wong in & out rather than play-all.
If all of these assumptions are valid, and you're willing to bet up to 1x$120 or 2x$80, then the answer is yes: double all the bets. This will double your EV, while keeping your RoR the same: about 10%.
On the other hand, if one or more of these assumptions is invalid, then your bet schedule would be different. For example, if you'd be willing to place even higher bets, then you could increase your EV even more.
Let me know what you're trying to accomplish.
Dog Hand
I am just trying to make the most money possible while maintaining a reasonable RoR. I find that if I go to the casino later in the night or earlier in the morning there are less people and I can usually get a table with just one or two people on it. This makes it easier to wong in and out and also leaves more spots open.
Gentle Readers,
Click the link below... and sorry for the confusion!
Dog Hand
