currently play 6-8 deck games in atlantic city (I know its a terrible game, but its 15 minutes away) I currently place my max bet of $150, which is 1% of BR at TC of +4, when I have about a 2% advantage (as per kevin blackwoods book) Problem is TC +4 are far and few between. would I be better served to place max bet at TC +3 and deal with a higher RoR? wondering at what count others place max bet? especially relating to 6-8 deck games. thanx
The 6 deckers in A.C. have an e.v. of -.41 The 8 deckers are -.43
If you use the value of an average .50 value per true count in Hi-Lo - then a +4 T.C. generates an advantage of only 1.57%, not 2.00% (for 8 deckers).
A difference of .43 % is NOT a trivial difference.
I was figuring an increase of .56% per count, that I obtained from a couple different sources, so for a Tc of +4 the advantage should be 4x .56 or 2.24 less the initial house edge of .41 for an advantage of +1.83. Pretty close to 2%.
Not quite so. You are treating the problem as if the player was a basic strategy player. The fact that you are counting and using index play variations gives you 2% edge at +4 for the following game: 6 decks, S17, Das, and pen at 4.5/6. This is a standard game for high limit pits in AC.
IF you met all of the following conditions, .56 would be correct:
You play completely without error of any kind.
You make NO cover plays, e.g. not splitting faces or doubling down with soft 20
You estimate your true count accurately AND you use an optimal bet ramp.
It pays to be conservative in any profit estimates in finance or gaming.
Remember that the .56 figure is an average.
It does not take into consideration "the floating advantage"
Using .50 is a better idea.
Thank you Gman. Now hopefully we can get back to my original questions rather than debate a few one-hundreds of a percent of advantage. The question is at what count do others place their max bets in multideck games?
softdoubledown,
Using CVCX, I simmed an 8D, S17, DAS game with 75% penetration with 4 players for a HiLo counter (using the Sweet 16 indexes) wonging in and flat-betting one spot. Using a RoR of 13.5% and a BR of $15,000, I find the following info depending on the TC at which the counter wongs in & out. Here, "play" is the fraction of rounds seen that the wonger actually plays, "edge" is the overall edge for playing at the indicated TC & higher, "bet" is the optimal bet, and "winrate" is the hourly win rate:
.
TC play edge bet winrate SCORE
+1 25.1% 0.894% $101 $22.65 15.13
+2 13.4% 1.383% $157 $29.20 19.49
+3 06.7% 1.920% $219 $28.07 18.70
+4 03.6% 2.411% $275 $23.96 16.00
+5 01.7% 2.972% $342 $17.64 11.76
not really sure what the "sweet 16 indexes" are but am assuming they are similar to the illustious 18, which is basically what I use (plus a few more) I try to stay WAY under a 13.5% RoR, which is why I limit my max bet to 1% of BR, and place that at 2% advantage. But the info, does help. thank you.
The best time for a max bet is +4 TC. I originally thought it should be much higher! I was wrong... you need to have your max bet out at this. YOU are wrong in wanting to get it out earlier. We were both wrong.
I have even heard good arguments at a max bet at +5 TC. May be better.
quark
It's all relative. The moment to place a max bet can change depending on your type of play (play all / backcount), the rules, table limit, the spread you want to use in a particular casino and your bankroll.
A simple example to illustrate something different then a max bet at +4...
Let say the only game you have access is backcounting a 6 decks, S17, DAS, pen.4.5/6 with a table limit of $500. Your bankroll is $750K , well your max bet which is also the table limit may very well be placed at +1.
In this particular game, you may also place your max bet at +1 even in a play all situation !
you are correct gman, it will change according to type of play, rules, table max ect. That is why I specifically laid those out in my original post, so people would know how I am betting and playing and offer their opinion on wheather it is advisable to max bet earlier than I currently do. From what I have read most seem to think +4 or +5, so I think I will stay right where I've been (+4). thanks to all for your imput.
