Math Pros (HELP NEEDED)

I need a little help putting this altogether.

optimal betting size = Bank*advantage/variance (i hope)

3000 bank times .5% advantage divided by 1.28 variance = $11.7
3000 bank times 1% advantage divided by 1.28 variance = $23.4
3000 bank times 1.5% advantage divided by 1.28 variance = $35.1
3000 bank times 2% advantage divided by 1.28 variance = $46.8

i play 4 deck 70% pen, s17, das,doa, ns,

my first question is how do i find the variance for this particular game. (i am using 1.28 because that is what wong uses as his benchmark)

my second question is at what T.C. do i have a 1% advantage using Hi-low in this game. I am assuming +3?

assuming i could wong at all counts of +2 and above, my optimal betting size would be this?

+2 = $10
+3 = $25
+4 = $35
+5 = $45

i am hoping this is correct, some thoughts would be appreciated greatly. would this be considered betting 1 kelly?
also how do i find my ROR and average win per hour using these numbers.

thanks.

Top bet you suggest is only 1.5% of $3,000 BR so not full Kelly.

Also your groundrules include wonging in at +2 which lowers your variance, I believe.

Therefore, I suggest you raise your top bet to $60, and ramp up to it, IF (and this is the most important thing) you are willing to accept a higher ROR.

And the key question to ask yourself there is not strictly a mathematical question, but rather one of practicality:

How easily can I replace that $3,000 BR if I go bust, or will I instead chose to quit the game.

For Hi-Lo you're correct. A TC of +3 approximately translates to a 1% advantage.

Last night I played at a table full with cheerfull friendly drunks.They
played well except that they tipped the dealer the full amount of
the BJ bonus when they got one, So, if BJ was made on a $10 bet they
made $15 profit and tipped the dealer $5 leaving only $10 net profit.
SO they were only getting even money on BJ's. Thorp said that 2 to
1 on BJ amounts to a 2.3% advantage over basic expectation,so the above setup
s should mean the players were 2.3% Below Basic Expectation,I think.
Is it possible to overcome this disadvantage by orthrodox card-countin

these players are guaranteed to be long-run losers.

each game has its own optimal bet ramp for each desired betting spread. If you use a 1-2 spread your top optimal bet could be at 0.5%....if you use a 50-1 spread your top bet will be much higher...penetration, rules, and bet spread all are factors which determine precisely where your max bet should be put out. BJRM2000 is the software which most players use to determine optimal bet ramps. QFIT's new CVCX is another great product.