Hi
New player. 6decks, no hole, DAS, H17, 75% penetration, surrender. There's this side bet called lucky ladies - at it's core it's betting that you'll get twenty - the minimum payout is 4:1. Wondering if anyone's done math to see if this is ever a good side bet ie if the count gets favorable enough is it worth betting...minimum bet is $1.
thanks
Some Action
> Wondering if anyone's done math to see if this is ever a good side
> bet ie if the count gets favorable enough is it worth
> betting...minimum bet is $1.
Sure, many of us have done the math, but don't expect us to post it on a public website! =)
-Sonny-
Thanks Sonny --- any suggestions for how I could find out this info
Some Action
I calculated this sidebet. The results are in the archives on greenchip.
> Thanks Sonny --- any suggestions for how I could find
> out this info
>
> Some Action
Sure!
First, do a full combinatorial analysis with the full deck composition. That will tell you the house edge off the top, as well as give you the framework for finding the effects of removal. Then, do another analysis for the subsets where one of each card has been removed (using a spreadsheet will speed this up quite a bit). Once you know the effects of removal for each card, it is a simple matter of comparing the correlation coefficients of several different counting systems to determine which one has the highest betting correlation (looking at the effects of removal should give you a big hint). The best result will probably be a new system that you design specifically for this bet, although you will be able to see how well any other standard system holds up. You may find that your current counting system is �close enough� or that using your new system will earn more money from the side bet than you were earning from playing the blackjack hands.
Once you have selected a counting system, you will want to write a simulation program in order to find out what sort of bet spread you should use. Once you decide on a betting strategy, you will be able run another sim to find out your EV and SD. That will give you an idea of what your win rate will be, how high the variance will be, what your risk of ruin is, and how long it will take to have a reasonable chance of overcoming the variance. The simulation should also verify the results of your combinatorial analysis. You may find that your EV is not high enough to justify the workload, or that the variance is too high to make the potential gains worthwhile.
And that is how you solve the riddle of the Lucky Ladies. On second thought, I think Rick�s advice is much better than mine. There�s no sense in trying to reinvent the wheel, but maybe the information above will help you solve other riddles you find along the way. =)
-Sonny-
Rick
I'm in Green chip...which archive contains your calculation please.
SA
