Luck

What is Luck?

Webster's defines Luck as:

1 a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual
2 : favoring chance; a

Do card Counters need luck?
Before reading further, answer the question. Do card counters NEED luck?

I say yes.

I think counters get a kick out of watching people play Roulette. Meaning, it is sometimes funny to hear people's theories and strategies when playing Roulette. I am strictly talking about the superstitions that one can witness in the "play" of the Roulette gambler.

Of coarse, REAL BJ players do not lend credence to this type of behavior. It is ludicrous, absurd!!

Why?
Because: BJ has a memory, Roulette does not. This, of coarse, is why counting works (non-CSM naturally). One is able to use the memory of the discarded cards to ones advantage through specified variation of wager!

But then comes the Long Run.

Statistically speaking, the counter should win in the Long Run. But is this correct? Statistically, yes it is. But the Long Run does not remember your previous sessions, meaning, there is no guarantee on a Long Run overall win. Long Run can not offer a guarantee because of Deviation.

And it is this bastard Deviation that only luck can defeat. My definition of luck:
Staying on the right side of Deviation.

So it is possible then that there is such a thing as a Lucky Card Counter and an Unlucky Card Counter; the only thing separating the two is which side of Deviation they are on. And since no one lives forever, one could play their whole lives on the wrong side of deviation.

So is there really a difference between Roulette players and counters? Other than the stats of Risk of Ruin, is there really a fundamental, moral, theological, difference of whether one believes in the memory of a wheel or the memory of Long Run?

So both players need luck or? Please don't answer that the BJ player needs "less" luck. A post describing how one can measure Luck (morally) may seem more stupid then this post ; )

Someone is filling the voids at both ends of the counters Deviation spectrum. And because no one can play forever, Luck is the only thing separating the two ends.

To believe that luck has anything to do with the "long run" of blackjack or love is silly. Simply stated, if you are on the wrong side of deviation for a lifetime,as you suggest is possible,it would not be a deviation it would be the norm.

To win over the long run it takes knowledge of the game, strong discipline to follow a game plan, excellent control of your emotions and a keen understanding of your opponent. Like the professional golfer who hits a thousand balls a day at the range, this blackjack player does much better when I practice, practice and then practice some more. That is not called luck, rather hard work.

It is not lucky that I love my wife and children and am loved in return. It is because each of us give our very best to one another.

particularly good luck provided they play the N hands required to get into the long run. If you are at the center of the bell curve as a counter you are making precisely your expected value (which is pretty good). As a counter you just hope you don't have a seriously bad flux (bad luck?). But to achieve basic ev you don't need particularly good luck...just a normal run of cards will do.

People here will be surprised to learn that I don't find your remarks at all unreasonable.

But, you have to understand that "long run" can be quantified statistically. So, if we have played a designated number of hours, we can state quite precisely what our mean, or expected win, is, and we can state how likely we are to stray from that mean, and with what magnitude of straying.

If we don't play too long, we may increase the likelihood you talk about of being on the left side of the curve. But, it doesn't necessarily mean we will lose. It may mean that we simply don't win our "fair share." And, I believe that this is, indeed, very common with many counters who don't play on a regular basis.

Don

Long Run does not have memory

Don is talking about standard deviation. If you play 100 hands of blackjack, you will fall into the losing category or on the left side of the curve almost as often as you will on the right side of the curve. As you play more hands, SD keeps moving more and more to the right, until just about everyone playing those increased number of hands is on the right side of the curve. Of course, given enough players there is always that poor soul who is four or five SD's to the left. Unlucky is as good a term as any to describe that sad fellow.

Got to agree with you, and as I have posted before the
counter needs MORE luck to match the big bet with the
ocasional winning hand. All of the bet ranging to cover
multiple flaws through out- hundreds of systems.
AND the casinos CHEER!

"But the Long Run does not remember your previous sessions, meaning, there is no guarantee on a Long Run overall win."

This is a really strange conclusion. Of course there is no guarantee, but this has nothing to do with the memory... if your expected value is already positive in one session, you do not need any additional memory tricks between the sessions to hold the expected value in the positive range for the long run!

Plain and simple. If your expected profit after 1,000 hands is $X, and your ACTUAL profit is greater than $x, then you got lucky. If it is less than $x, you got unlucky.

Luck is completely quantifiable. The unit of luck is the Standard Deviation. I have even gotten my friends talking like this, so when one of them discusses their bad luck playing a fantasy hockey game, or Dungeons and Dragons, they use phrases like "I was really unlucky tonight, about 3 standard deviations worth" - they have a rough idea that 1 standard deviation of luck represents 2:1 odds (either for or against, depending on which direction), 2 standard deviations represents 19:1 odds, and 3 standard deviations represents 199:1 odds.

Note that luck is not an element of games of chance, but an element of situations where the exact likelyhood cannot be known, and has to be approximated with probability. If I have a 70% chance of beating Don S. in a chess game, and I win, then I got lucky, since my measured result - 100% of games won - was higher than my theoretical result - 70% of games won. Even though chess is devoid of CHAOS, it is by no means devoid of LUCK.

This last point is an important one to remember. Even in strict games of skill, even if we have an advantage, we still need luck to win in the short term, and people aren't always prepared to accept this. After all, if I beat Don S. at chess, it was through skill, because I'm a 70:30 favorite. If he beats me, by god, did he EVER get lucky!

Once you get over this hump, thinking that the one with the advantage wins with skill and loses due to luck, then you're on your way to having the criminal mind needed for this stupid game (or any other stupid game).

Something sobering to do: After every blackjack session where you have a big win or a big loss, do your calculations to find out how many SDs + or - you were, then convert your blackjack action to an equivalent amount of craps action, and see how that result would have been. Winning $1400 playing blackjack for the first time was sure intoxicating until I realized that, hey, if I were playing a DISADVANTAGE game, and had the luck I had, I'd still have made $1000.

Moose's Universal Theory of Luck: If Mike Tyson is a 999,999:1 favorite to beat Mihkal Barishnokov, and Tyson wins, he got lucky.

(Not VERY lucky, mind you. But all the same, Tyson's theoretical result was 99.9999% and his measured result was 100%)

The higher your expected value, the less luck you need to win $X after N hours. Counters play to a higher expected value than basic strategy players. Therefore, they need LESS luck to achieve a similar result that a basic strategy player would.

Your odds of "winning" a hand are virtually even throughout any count. At higher counts, you simply win more through more aggressive and superior splits and doubles, and you lose less with more accurate use of surrender and insurance.

Please don't think I'm replying to you - I would be sullying my name by trying to talk sense into one who cannot accept it. I'm merely posting this in the hopes of reaching anyone who has accidentally read your post and it's most conveniently posted beneath your original piece of nonsense.

M.

lead with your ear; hopefully he will take a bite so you win on a disqualification.

" and it is this bastard Deviation that only luck can defeat. "

But you've forgotten to add--" in negative expectation games only. "

The skilled BJ player, by dint of his skill, ENDURES the fluctuations ( Deviation ) of the game and overcomes it with something other than shear luck.

BJ is a game of ENDURANCE and skill, and if you lack either quality-- due to various reasons--the vagaries of the game, including luck, will defeat you. This is...THE CONTEST.

And these vagaries come in all shapes and sizes ( hell, didn't some poor fella on this board leave his bankroll in a duffle bag that was hijacked by a kangeroo who had given birth to quadruplets? ), and occurs on some invisible sliding scale of " human undoing " which ranges from ( yes ) incredibly bad luck, all the way down to total foolhardiness, but none of these undoings lessen the fact the game is still...a game of ENDURANCE and skill.

The test is to ENDURE the vagaries of the game and every eventuality that surrounds it, be it a nursing kangaroo on the prowl for additional pouch space, or Deviations to the negative side which feel like a kangeroo hoof to your own beloved sack. And we only NEED luck to remind us that we too are prowlers in an outback known as chance. But we DON'T need luck to stalk, corner and grab our hopping about prey. And HOW it hops about--like a ( sd ) kangeroo in heat!

But for goodness sake, we are warriors and hunters and not accountants Lucky-In Love! We can take it. And we treat luck, and all other vagaries, as a roman warrior with sword in hand would treat the " fickle finger " upon his road to conquest--with utter and complete, nondeterred disdain!

Now, anyone for for some hot " Roo " stew?

Bootlegger wrote:

"As you play more hands, SD keeps moving more and more right until just about everyone playing those increased hands is on the right side of the curve"

I believe it would be more accurate to say the following:

"As you play more hands, THE WHOLE BELL CURVE keeps moving more ad more right unti just about everyone playing those increased hands is on the right side of THE LINE BETWEEN NEGATIVE AND POSITVE EV (though they could very well be on the left side of the curve and still have a positive EV.

Not trying to shout,
I need to learn to italicize,

Telescopic

Standard deviation never changes when using the same strategy, rules, and betting the same amount.The only possible way one can lower deviation under the above condition is not by playing longer, but by lowering bets.

Please do not regard me as having no memory, for my memory is of the strongest mystical force known to man. I am capable of dealing with the masses of millions right down to the soloist.

Every breath you take,every move you make,I'll be watching you.

I can be your best friend or worst enemy. I know where you have been,where you are, and where you are going.

It is the fool who assumes they can somehow hide or elude my mystical force as they weed in and out of my path.

I remember the times you have cherished thy tidings and the times thou has weeped in thy wine.

Without my mystical power of memory, I would perish away in a sea of mass confusion.

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Please do respect the power I have within.
*****************************************

Sincerely,
Mister Longrun

"Not trying to shout, I need to learn to italicize."

Yes, legend has it that italics were invented precisely to stop Italians from shouting all the time, as they are wont to. They say it was first used in Napoli.

To type something in italics, type it like this: < i >something < /i >. Then it will come out as something.