Tried a new strategy last weekend. 8-deck shoe, started KO count at -28.
I'm playing, KO is -10 so betting minimum. I'm winning, regretting the KO count didn't call for a higher bet. Then at three decks left, I converted to hi-lo, realized KO -10 equals hi-lo RC +18, TC +6. Started betting with the TC and winning more instead of sticking with my KO determined min bet.
Makes sense to me, but is this feasible?
realized KO -10 equals hi-lo RC +18
cvgtpc1,
The above statement, clipped from your message, is patently false.
Remember that KO counts 7's as +1, while HiLo ignores them. Thus, in the first five decks, you had 18 more small cards than big cards, but how many of the small cards were 7's? On average, five decks played would have 20, which nicely accounts for the extra 18 small cards. In fact, if exactly 20 7's had been played, your HiLo RC would have been -2, rather than +18.
Just my fiftieth of a silver!
Dog Hand
If you started at 0 rather than -28, you would have had a KO running count of +18 with three decks remaining in an eight-deck shoe. To convert to Hi-Lo, you multiply 4 times the number of decks played and subtract that number from your running count. In this case, 4 X 5 = 20. 18 - 20 = -2. You then divide the result by the number of decks left in play, so you get -2/3, or a TC of -0.66.
Just be thankful you were lucky this time.
Forgot completely about the 7's, thanks!!
If you use KO with a pivot of 0 instead of +4, it's easy to convert to a true count in situations where you want a more accurate estimate or your advantage. Since you're dropping the pivot by -4, you can just drop the IRCs and the keys by -4 (e.g., the IRC for 8 decks is -32 and the key is -10), and it's still perfectly playable in unbalanced running count mode. But when you want the true count, you just divide by the number of remaining decks, the same as with Hi-Lo TCs. The only "trick" is that TKO true counts with a pivot of 0 are equivalent Hi-Lo TCs minus 4, so Hi-Lo +2 (the point that you would normally start your betting ramp) would be TKO -2.
At that point in the game you mentioned, you would have had a running count of -14, so the TKO true count would be -14/3 = -4.66. The Hi-Lo equivalent would be -4.66 + 4 = -0.66 (the same number Bootlegger calculated), but when you're playing, that really isn't of any concern if you've set your betting schedule using TKO numbers: You're just looking for TKO -2 to start betting up, and you weren't there yet.
Most of the time, you shouldn't need to worry about the true count. Anywhere near the middle of the shoe, I wouldn't bother with the TC calculation; the running count key is good enough. But one of the criticisms of KO is that using the key can sometimes cause you to miss opportunities early in the shoe or to overbet late in the shoe. Adding a TKO conversion for those situations is a nice improvement that doesn't require very much extra effort at all. But then, you can start adding strategy improvements, using Hi-Lo indices minus 4, and you'll have a system that's actually slightly better than Hi-Lo.
