I understand that if I play a 6D game with DA2, DAS, S17, 75% penetration, and a betting ramp of 6 then my expectancy becomes .73% using the KO Preferred system. But can somebody please tell me what the NEW expectancy would be if Late Surrender was offered? Somebody please run a SIM and let me know.
I don't think I can simply add .06% for Late Surrender to .73% for a new expectancy of .79% can I????
Thanks in advance!
-MJ
I understand that if I play a 6D game with DA2, DAS, S17, 75% penetration, and a betting ramp of 6 then my expectancy becomes .73% using the KO Preferred system. But can somebody please tell me what the NEW expectancy would be if Late Surrender was offered? Somebody please run a SIM and let me know.
I don't think I can simply add .06% for Late Surrender to .73% for a new expectancy of .79% can I????
No, you can't. Fortunately, the advantage of surrendering increases as the count rises when you are making big bets.
However, expectation alone is not a good measure for evaluating a counting system. Consider what good is it be to have a 10% advantage if you have a 99% chance of losing your bankroll.
You must weigh your advantage against your risk. Don Schelesinger has come up with a uniform measure called SCORE. This provides a number that can be used to compare among systems and conditions. You can read all about it in Blackjack Attack. Reading this book is very highly recommended if you are already proficient in counting.
The game conditions you described has a SCORE of 12.35 (according to www.bjstats.com). SCOREs below 50 are considered a waste of time. In order to achieve a decent SCORE in 6 deck games, you must avoid playing when the count is negative (wonging). The www.bjstats.com website does not give SCOREs for wonging, but Blackjack Attack does. You can also purchase software such as BJRM or CVCX to calculate it.
Based on my personal calculations, given the above conditions and HiLo + Illustrious 18 + Fab 4, you enter at TC=+1 and exit at TC<0, you will achieve a SCORE of over 50 with a 1-5 spread*. (Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 are sets of the 18 most useful playing variations and 4 most useful surrender indices; they are also described in Blackjack Attack.)
The late surrender rule is particularly good for counters as it increases the expectation while reducing the risk.
* The 1-5 spread I used is as follows:
TC = 1 or below: 1 unit.
TC = 2: 2 units.
TC = 3: 3 units.
TC = 4: 4 units.
TC = 5 or above: 5 units.
Is the SCORE of 50 not for wonging in at +1 and wonging out at TC LESS THAN +1?
Big difference in application between wonging in at +1 and leaving when count goes negative. For that, I get a SCORE in the lower 30s - which is still a hell of a lot better than 12. To get the SCORE over 50 with those "wonging guideposts", he'd have to up his spread to 1:12 or better.
Maybe I'm mistaken here.
