Kings Bounty Blackjack Side Bet

Kings Bounty blackjack is a special Side bet on first cards dealt to player and the dealer. Played with 6 decks of cards. For a hand of unsuited total 20 player is paid 4 to 1; 2 Kings pay 6 to 1; Suited 20 pays 9 to 1; 2 suited 10’s, Jacks or Queens pay 20 to 1; 2 suited Kings pay 30 to 1; 2 Kings of Spades pay 100 to 1 and 2 Kings of Spades against a dealer blackjack pay 1000 to 1.

I recently encountered the above mentioned Kings Bounty Side Bet in a 6 deck game. In reviewing the cutoff for a positive EV and TC requirement on some BJ sites, I've seen the bet is around a 15% house edge at the start of a 6-deck shoe, and only returns a positive EV when the TC is >+8. However, assuming the count of Kings of Spades is rich in the remaining deck(s), the TC must certainly be adjusted accordingly.
My question is: how much does each extra king of spades change the TC threshold requirement for a positive EV? ie say 3 of 6 decks dealt and there are 4 Kings of spades (or even 5 or 6), versus 3 Kings of spades remaining. 

I have played it when TC has been at the insurance TC requirement or greater (>+3) combined with the remaining decks being somewhat rich in K spades. My bet range has been $1 on each betting square, progressing by $1 more for each TC greater than. Once to TC>+5, I bet on all neighboring squares (if player allows) at $5. I've had marginal results to date but ultimately anticipate a big payoff.

Side note: I think this a great cover bet for counters, since a big win on KB would excuse you to just being lucky in the casino's view, 

Thanks

Peace49 

My question is: how much does each extra king of spades change the TC threshold requirement for a positive EV?

This question can only be answered within the context of the counting system being used, and you have not provided that.  (For example, if your count system is counting the king of spades with a more negative tag value than a non-spade king, or if you are side-counting the kings of spades, then the answer is that your TC threshold requirement for positive EV is unchanged.)

According to infinite deck calculations that I did on this side bet approx. 7 years ago, I was getting a 24.878% house edge.  (I verified that the paytable that I was playing with was exactly the same paytable that you just posted.)  I don't know where you got 15%, but that is way too optimistic.  Your finding of TC +8 for a positive EV sounds about right (assuming that you're using a level 1 count such as hi-lo).  If you are betting on it as you say, in the TC +3 to +5 range, then you are just gambling for kicks on it, and are not getting any real advantage on this side bet.

Hi Linus




Thanks for the response and info. I was using a Hi-lo counting system, and performing a side count of the Kings' of spades for richness for when they should have come out (ie one deck for each KS).




Gary