Jerry Patterson

Kinda new to this board and was surprised to find such hateful stuff about Jerry Patterson. I started with Utson's book in early 80's. Often found that crushing high bets lost in high counts. What I got from Patterson's target 21 was a neat way to hit and run at the casinos. I may walk past a 6 deck shoe, see the table dumbing and keep parlaying up bets to win $1,000 or more in 15 mins. There is no pit heat when the dealer keeps breaking.

And as for handheld (my favorite), you can really feel the flow of cards and see the bias go back and forth and parlay up accordingly or just take a bathroom break to induce a shuffle if playing heads up.

Best of all, you can place a monster bet off the top after a good shoe and continue to parlay up if winning.

I use a simple count and watch the flow and have found you can get in and out of games quick with the cash.

Don't bring up Jerry Patterson or Target on this site. You will be brutally beaten about the head and shoulders when you do. If you are successful with JP's system no one will believe you and you will be told you that either you are a shill for JP or you are in for a big fall. Doesn't matter if you have had 10,879,413 consecutive winning shoes...that's not really the long term and you will get yours in the end. If you like JP's stuff and are successful with it keep playing, keep your mouth shut, and hoard your profits.

scruft

That advice you give is sound and realistic.

But why invite the attention and the wrath of the mob?

If that kind of heretic behavior continues... then the PB will get into action, too.

And, that is normal way of things with "true" believers. Hero worship is what motivates 90% of people- the followers. Contrarian thinking does not work when it's against the ruling group thinking. The same goes in other aspects of social and political life where the herd instinct won't allow and tolerate dissent from the groups "party" line.

PS: This post will have a short life. Watch it!

I agree with your comments Jason. And I do place some value on Patterson's early work, which pioneered concepts such as table-hopping and shuffle-tracking.

However, TARGET was given the benefit of the doubt initially by the blackjack establishment. If you look at Snyder's articles on the subject you can see he gives Patterson a lot of respect. Snyder, Wong, Carlson, Malmuth and Fuchs all did independent intellectually rigourous clumping studies which lack hysteria or personal attacks, and they did discover effects they did not expect and admitted this.

However, they could find no evidence that TARGET had any validity. TARGET has been more comprehensively disproved than almost any modern gambling technique. Consequently, further discussion of TARGET seems a bit pointless, though I agree it should not be censored.

It is also noticeable that the system's creator Eddie Olsen, seems to have quietly dropped the method.

Don�t bring up Jerry Patterson or Target on this site. You will be brutally beaten about the head and shoulders when you do. If you are successful with JP�s system no one will believe you and you will be told you that either you are a shill for JP or you are in for a big fall. Doesn�t matter if you have had 10,879,413 consecutive winning shoes...that�s not really the long term and you will get yours in the end. If you like JP�s stuff and are successful with it keep playing, keep your mouth shut, and hoard your profits.

That is not true. No one will be "brutally beaten about the head and shoulders" literally or figuratively for discussing Jerry Patterson or Target on BJ21. What is true is that Jerry's Target system might be brutally beaten about the head and shoulders.

Some visitors to BJ21 come with starry-eyed dreams that worthless systems will make them rich. Other visitors to BJ21 possess the analytical skills to analyze systems to distinguish which give an edge and which don't.

BJ21 welcomes visitors with starry-eyed dreams of systems they think will make them rich. But don't expect to meet too many people here who will share your dreams for your system. Instead expect to encounter people capable of analyzing your system, and expect them to be honest about what they find. BJ21 is a place to learn; it is not a place where everyone pats each other on the shoulder no matter what worthless drivel they bring to the table.

If Jerry Patterson himself starts posting on BJ21, he will be treated with respect. His Target system will not be treated with respect.

If you are using Target or any other system that the analytical people on BJ21 think is worthless, expect your system to be shot down. You are welcome to attempt to defend it. People who are argue that your system is worthless are not being mean; they are being realistic. They are not trying to beat you up; they are trying to help you understand your system.

You are the one who must decide whether you will keep using your system in the future. Feedback that you get on BJ21 is better at predicting how your system will perform in the future than is your past performance with that system.

Stanford Wong

What I've found to be most helpful by incorporating some Target ideas is, to recognize when I'm likely to have a count that says pile up the chips, yet the flow of the game says, likely to lose. When you leave a table and are down 80 units, more often than not, most of those lost units come on a couple of hands when the count says "send it in". I've found by observing things outlined in Target about the flow of the cards, that I can often avoid pushing out those big bets when the count says I should, but then the dealer gets the BJ instead of me.

Thank everyone for their input.

Of course you are sometimes going to walk away from the table down 80 units when pushing out the big bets. You would have to have an incredible losing streak to be down 80 units making 1 unit bets at a time. You will win or lose big when making big bets, and you will win or lose small making small bets. Hopefully, you will be making the big bets (and win big) when it is more likely to win, and making the small bets (and lose small) when it is more likely to lose.

So how many times have you walked away from the table not UP 80 units because TARGET told you not to bet big with a high count? Probably balances out with the times it saves you 80 units. Of course, you remember the times you lost, but probably are failing to register the times you should have won much more.

trying to guess when a high count's predictive ability is going to exactly correlate with high cards comming out and you winning is like someone who knows little about the stock market trying to time the market. The experts on CNBC's Wall Street Journal Editoral show said that statistics show that people trying to time the market miss out on 80% of the gain in the market because their money is on the sideline when the biggest gains come.

Likewise with shoes...if don't play many of the high count shoes that you get you will be losing out on a large chunk of your lifetime EV. Sometimes you will be right and avoid some losing hands or dealer blackjacks...but many times you will be missing out on winning hands, player blackjacks, and double down opportunities. Remember, if the dealer got the blackjack and you didn't...that meant there was probably a 50% chance that either you or the dealer would get a blackjack...except you would have gotten 3:2. The key to winning is to shove the money out there and play as many high count hands as possible...the more you play the more likely that you will be a winner...the more you avoid the longer it will take you to overcome the casino edge.

If you have a slot machine that gives you a 1% edge with cashback...anyone will tell you that you should play as long and fast as you can...pumping as much "Coin-In" as you can to have a good shot of making your 1% edge payoff. It is the same principle with blackjack...when you have a big edge you want to run as much "coin-in" as possible through the game as fast as you can...it is the frequency of bets and number of decisions that allows the player edge to exert itself over the casino.

Nobody thinks twice about trying to figure out patterns of wins and losses when playing Video poker...they understand that to win when you have an edge you simply must play as many decisions as possible. Why is it with blackjack many new players (or superstitious players) don't seem to understand that the same principle applies.

O.K., look at it another way. I also play the ponies. Started doing pace figs 17 years ago, then graduated to Sartin Method and now download complete reports from BRIS. . . anyway, I often would go to the track and have an exacta nailed cold, based on the pace figs, yet some bizzaro would run first and my pace horses would run 2nd and 3rd.

Then I start following trainers and trainer moves, like first time blinkers, first start after a layoff, etc. NOW, I see the bizzarros before they happen and have filed out many a IRS form based on combining some CREATIVITY with my pace figs.

It's the same with blackjack. The count is what it is, yet there are definately ways to recognize when the count says send it in and yet the table is dealer biased.

And we've all played at tables when the count was very negative and yet the tourists and coupon bombers sit and win hand after hand, because the table became player biased.

I use Target to recognize a bias and it helps greatly.

Just like the first couple of days at Keenland this week, the track is biased to speed on the rail and a horse that would be your fourth or fifth choice that draws the rail, has a better shot at winning than normal.

Bias happen just like the waves of the ocean go up and down and I have used Target to see them and do much better than I ever did with counting alone.

Well said, Big.

I also think that many of the naysayers don't understand the
statistics behind the game. And, because they are undercapitalized,
lose faith after a few big losses.

You have a real variable with the track conditions. You assume a hidden variable exists when you apply TARGET to the situation of your counting not getting the results you expected. You are trying to use results to detect those assumed hidden variables.

So you have valid track betting information you are getting good results from including, that you are using to justify applying TARGET to blackjack. In applying TARGET to blackjack you are stacking two assumptions ontop of each other:

That a hidden variable does exist as you postulate.

That results provide information on those hidden variables.

The second assumption is also pure cart before the horse in that you are using results, without consideration of content, as if they were causes to predict new hands' outcomes.

The rest of TARGET is a collection of strange beliefs such as the miss-weighting of the effects of dealer busts and the value of the blackjack bonus. Aces may prevent dealer busts, but they sure result in blackjack bonuses being paid.

Sanford,

Must admit that I'm impressed with the treatment Target has been given on this thread and your statement that Target discussions are welcome here. I never meant that your organization would beat anyone brutally, but that responders verbally abused people who mentioned anything positive about Target in the past. One of my first posts ever was in response to a question about how the BJ was at a certain casino run by the Indians. I responded that I had had great success there with Target and I was jumped on pretty hard by the responder(s). It certainly discouraged me from mentioning Target again. The biggest problem I had with Target was the grief I got from my better half when I told her that I hadn't played a hand our whole session in the casino, "We came here to play" (She played slots). I've played progressions (+ & -), Target, HiLo and KO. I've had winning and losing times with each. In terms of enjoyment playing I prefer positive progressions, Target, BS, KO, and Hi-lo. The negative progressions are too nerve racking. If Target and progressions can offer no advantage then they offer no disadvantage, or if they do, they could be sort of reversed to gain an advantage. I assume that whichever system you use doesn't cause you to overbet your bankroll. All systems require disclipline to do their best (even if it is still negative).

scruft

Ya know, I got friendly with a floor mgr. once who also happened to deal at another casino. Since I always toked well, this manager, naturally, dealt a little deeper in the handheld game. So one nite I'm in this floor managers place late and as soon as we make eye contact, the manager points me to a dumping table where two guys were playing $50 a hand and winning hand after hand. I jumped in and out in 20 minutes, up over $600. Bias exists my friend and there are ways to see it coming and going and adjust accordingly. A little creativity with pure number crunching is what being an artistic human being is all about.

Any experienced player of many years that there are extended periods of being unlucky. I have one that extended for about almost 2 years. May be some 35-40 trips.