It Depends...
playboy21,
I was wondering what size bets and what kind of betting variation I would need to have an hourly win rate of $50 or $100 oer hour.
The answer depends on many factors: some to a greater extent, others to a lesser extent. Among them are these factors:
Game Factors:
1. Is the game "Real BJ" (naturals pay 3:2) or "Crapjack" (naturals pay 6:5... or even worse, even money)?
2. How many decks are used?
3. What is the penetration?
4. What are the house rules?
Money Factors:
1. What is your bankroll?
2. What Risk of Ruin (RoR) will you accept?
Playing Factors:
1. What are the table minimum and maximum?
2. What betting spread will be tolerated?
3. What playing style will you be using: will you play all, or will you wong in and/or out?
4. What counting system and how many indexes will you be using?
5. How many other players will be playing on your table?
Once you answer all these questions, you can find the answer to your query either by simulation (I like the Casino Verite products sold by QFIT.com) or by consulting one or more excellent books on blackjack (Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack 3 contains tables that may be used to resolve your query).
For example, say that you find a nice Real BJ double deck (DD) game on which the dealer Stands on soft 17 (S17) and players are permitted to double down after splitting (DAS). The table limits are $10 to $500. Observing awhile, you notice that the dealer deals 62 cards before hitting the cut card (62/104 = 60% penetration). Two other players are sitting at the table. You decide that you will "play all" at this table, as the rules state No Mid Shoe Entry (NMSE). Your current bankroll is $10,000 (but you needn't have all of it with you at the table), and you're willing to accept a 13.5% RoR. Furthermore, you feel that the casino will tolerate a spread of 1:8 (that is, your maximum bet will be eight times your minimum bet). You will be using the HiLo count with the Illustrious 18 indexes.
Now, if we consult Table 10.77 (page 254) of BJA3, we see that if you bet $20 at a True Count (TC) of 0 or less, $47 at TC=+1, $85 at TC=+2, $123 at TC=+3, and $159 at TC=+4 and above, you will average a win of $53.02 per 100 hands played (roughly, per hour).
Let's say that your original dealer now goes on break, and the relief dealer for whatever reason decides to place the cut card much deeper: 78 cards down, instead of 62. Thus, the penetration is now 75%. Table 10.79 (page 255) now suggests this bet schedule:
TC Bet
0 (or less) $28
+1 $51
+2 $93
+3 $123
+4 $171
+5 $222
+6 (or more) $224
Note that this is still a 1:8 spread ($224/$28 = 8), but now the table tells us that you'll be averaging a win of $99.43 per 100 hands.
These examples indicate the importance of penetration: a simple increase in the number of cards dealt nearly doubles your win rate.
Now, some of the factors described above are easy to ascertain. Generally, the table felt will tell you the payout for a natural as well as whether or not the dealer hits soft 17's. Table limits are almost always posted, sometimes with the other house rules. The number of decks should be easy to tell by looking (or else asking). You can see how many other spots are in play, though that can change quickly. You can find the penetration by observing awhile, though we all know that the pen can also vary dramatically. You know your own BR, as well as your tolerance for risk and the count you'll be using. Probably the trickiest factor listed above to determine is the casino's spread tolerance: most of us find this by trial & error!
If you post your answers to the above factors, I (or someone else) will be able to help you answer your original question. Furthermore, if you go to the main page here at bj21, you'll see in the left-hand column some links under the heading Blackjack that will answer many of your questions.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
