if counting is the ONLY way to win..

then how come i always lose? about a year ago i was playing in a casino and got asked to stop playing bj. i left that casino and called it a day. i havent gone to a casino in almost a year. i play at home everyday. i count, bet according to count, deviate from strategy when neccessary, and i still lose. is it because playing at home is different then casino play? if so, why is that? So recently i started playing a preogression system. and its not like these progression systems mentioned here or on this site. i use martingale often and i win alot more then counting. but i do use another progression system that i will say again isnt on his site and isnt talked about on these boards and i win every time using it. So why not just use that? i always seem to lose more when i count especially in a shorter time period because when the count is high u gotta up your bets. im talking 1-8 spread. so i always lose when i count but when i use a progression system...i always win. any thoughts?

. . . your betting too much with only slightly plus counts

But the only way to win CONSISTENTLY.

Regarding your progression experience, I can only cite the old adage, "I'd rather be lucky than good."

At least that's what will happen eventually with a Martingale type progression. Your wins are limited to your initial bet while your losses are unlimited. Sooner or later, you will have a horible string of losses and run up against the table max. When that happens, you will know how Congress feels with the "debt ceiling".

Other types of progressions are no more than quessing which hands you will win or lose and players lose more hands than they win in the long run. Maybe you are just a good quesser so far.

Counting isn't the only way to win. There are many forms of AP that allow edges over the casino...some with much higher edges than you get by simply counting.

So recently i started playing a preogression system. and its not like these progression systems mentioned here or on this site. i use martingale often and i win alot more then counting. but i do use another progression system that i will say again isnt on his site and isnt talked about on these boards and i win every time using it. So why not just use that?

As for progression betting, it has been written about many times here so I won't regurgitate those posts. My response is this...if you're so sure you know more than those that have been doing this for a long period of time, go for it! Take that progression system to the casino instead of playing it at home and put some real money on the table. Forget counting, it's not for you, you'll win much, much more with that progression system of yours. Maybe check back with us in a year and let us know how it's going?

Regards,
PM

Although I have no authority to do so, I grant you permission to post on the free site at no charge for the month of August. Nice post.

no hard feelings....just wanted to share my opinion.

spread was too small to win. You may win some time with progression even in quite a long time but God of Statistics will catch you eventually. I have a friend teamed up with 7 people betting progressive with $240,000 bank on Baccarat. They won 14 months over $1,000,000 only to see all won plus bank gone in a day at LV MGM losing over 40 hands stratight. You may be luckier and may survive... 15 months? Good luck... you will need a lot.

this is what my betting ramp looks like when i count:

+1=2 units
+2=3-4 units
+3=4-5 units
+4=5-6 units
+5=6-7 units

am i betting right?

1-8 is not profitable on 6D tables.

my normal game is 6deck das (except aces) H17 penetration is 1.2-1.5 5 dollar limit up to 1000 max. what spread should i be using here? thanks.

Play all, wong in, wong out??????

I am still learning how to count but from what I have read standard deviation could account for your losing streak with counting. On pg. 22 of BJA3 Don Schlesinger wrote about the chance of a person playing with a 2.47 percent advantage in a 4-deck game. The numbers came out to 1 out of 10 people will still be losing after 200 hours of play and 1 out of 50 after 500 hours of play. Not exactly like the game you play so the numbers would be different but the general application seems like it could apply to your case. Maybe the betting spread is the problem or something else but I don't have the knowledge for those areas yet. Good luck with whatever strategy you try at the tables.

Gypsy

You break even playing 12 times spread if cut 1.5 decks without woninging.