I think I'm right

I think I'm right

I asked a pit boss who I thought knew a decent amount about blackjack what would happen in this scenario.

You have twenty bets in front of you for exactly 20 hands. Each hand, you have a 19 against a dealers face card.
I asked him how many of those hands you could expect to win on average and his answer floored me.

I don't know how to figure out mathematically exactly how it averages out, but my guess was that it would be close to even money. With 4 face cards you will automatically lose, 1 card pushes, 2 cards win, then the rest are drawing hands for the dealer. I actually thought you might come out ahead in the long run, but the pit boss said,

'1 win out of twenty...maybe two. You have to figure the dealer has a face under, and if he doesn't, he'll probably draw to it. About 1% of the time you'll win.'

I'm no math wizard, but in all my time on earth, I think one out of twenty has been 5%. Rather then demanding an explanation, I just sat there with my mouth hanging open wondering what color the sky was in their world. Ludicrous.

Could someone tell me the exact percentage?

Use the Blackjack Dealer Probabilities Calculator

at http://www.qfit.com/online-blackjack-calculator.htm

CVCX Online

one answer

at the wizardofodds.com web site, you can look up the expected value for 19 vs 10-up for dealer. The only reasonable playing decision is obviously to stand, and the EV for this is +.0631 (infinite deck number). This means that you are going to win slightly more than you lose. You will expect to win just over one more hand out of 20 than you lose, the rest being pushes.

Now you have to be careful in how you interpret that EV number above. Don't take it that you win 6.3 out of every 100 hands, and lose the rest. It means that for every 100 hands where you get that mix of cards, you are going to win 6.3 more than you lose, with the pushes thrown in for no gain at all. You should come out of that 100 hands with +6.3 units to the good (assuming flat-bets of one unit of course). That pit boss might _think_ that he is the favorite for that hand, but he's wrong. The average dealer hand is less than 19.

I have seen players surrender that hand, which I know the casinos just _love_ to see.

You can find all such numbers at www.wizardofodds.com, click the "blackjack" link, then go to the bottom of that page and click "appendix I". Any starting hand/dealer up-card with a +EV number means you are the favorite, not the underdog. .06 is not a huge favorite. For example 20 vs 8-up is a 79% winner for you.

And BTW, do not listen to dealers or pit bosses. :) They often try to talk you out of hitting A-7 vs 10. "YOu've got _eighteen_ there, why wreck it?" (because it probably isn't going to win, that's why, but it is probably best to not say that and let them know you know something about the game.)

Cool

Thanks for the response. And to be honest with you, I am a dealer. I've been telling people when they have a 19, 'I think you're all right.' I just wasn't sure how often I'd be right. Just trying to up the table morale.
Now maybe I'll run a bet with that pit boss. He'd almost surely pay me 3-1 on the times I win with my lowly 19! Thanks again!

That makes more sense

Until you said that you were a dealer, my biggest question was why in the hell would a Pit Boss want to discourage an unknowledgable BJ player. After all, if a 19 isn't a favorite to win, then the player should just quit playing. As a pit boss, I'd want the player to think that they are playing a close to break even game, and if they can just figure out the flow of the cards then they can easily beat the game.

In his defense, that pit boss is as knowledgable about BJ as most pit bosses that I have seen. Usually, their knowledge level is something like, "Hey that guy just raised his bet and won two hands in a row. He must be counting cards or otherwise cheating. We should throw him out. I wonder if the dealer is helping him cheat, maybe I should try to get the dealer fired. No, the dealer is really hot. I'll threaten to have her fired for suspected cheating unless she puts out. Then I'll have her fired after I get a piece of ass."

Just goes to show

Your story is just more anecdotal evidence that most pit bosses know far less about blackjack than skilled players, and for this purpose, I would include players who know basic strategy in that group.

I am always amazed at how many players out there take advice from dealers or the pit as if it were gospel. Congratulations for not being one of them.

Non-Conditional Results

It sounds to me like the EV you are quoting is the conditional EV, which assumes that the dealer has already checks for blackjack. Most of our strategy decisions are made after the dealer checks, and so those are usually the EVs we are concerned with.

Before the dealer checks for BJ, 19 is a losing hand. Here are some Combinatorial Results

 

Rules Set     : Std + S17 DASNo Sur   Num Decks = 6 

Results  for:      KS 9C  (Hard 19) vs. KS 

 

We Computed 2 Choices 

      Stand   Mean =   -1.36196 %   SD =  0.943 

      Hit     Mean =  -74.76404 %   SD =  0.642 

 

    Conditional (No Dealer BJ) Stats Are : 

      Stand   Mean = 6.94440        SD = 0.936 

      Hit     Mean = -72.63891      SD = 0.664 

 

List for Stand 

          -1.00   45.196 

           0.00   10.970 

           1.00   43.834 

List Mean =-0.013620    SD = 0.943461 

 

List for Hit 

          -1.00   85.925 

           0.00    2.915 

           1.00   11.161 

List Mean =-0.747640    SD = 0.641784 

When you hold 19 v 10, you win about 44% of the hands, and win about 45%. We are including in the 45% the 7.7% of hands that are dealer BJs.

There is an important practical application here. Sometimes, when there has been a dealing error, you are given the choice of pulling out of a hand. If you hold a 19 v 10, then you would pull out of the hand in this situation, if you had to give your �final answer� before the dealer checks for BJ

correct..

the chart I was looking at assumes that the dealer didn't have a 21 (already checked). It sounded like that was the correct value for the original question asked.

The chart was Appendix I from the wizard's blackjack page... Since these are for hit, stand, double and split, I am assuming that these values exclude a dealer snapper since I would not get a chance to make any sort of playing decision holding a 19...

against face,A7 hit,A8 Stand in BS.so i think 19 is good vs 10 (nt)

stupid comment

If the pit critters and dealers consistently gave advice that would lead to the player to win, uhhhhh, that dealer and critter would talk themselves out of a job....Though, if they give the impression that they are helping the player, silly player will tip the dealer and ruin and possibility of the average player from leaving the table with even 1/2 their money (would say bankroll, but those players do not consider their funds in that regard)

Get ready for the dealers to assert that "we gotta feed our familys....$60,000 a year can't even buy you a house in vegas anymore....we need $5 per hand tip to be able to eat! lol