A little closure. On page 50 of BJA3, you will find the probability of the dealer's getting a non-blackjack 21 to be 7.29%. Of course, this is rules dependent. For the player, you have to add horizontally, and the number you come up with 7.16%. When you multiply, you get 0.522%. This was the value (0.52%) I furnished in my first post.
I asked my good friend Dog Hand to calculate this independently, by simulation. He was kind enough to provide the following analysis. I trust we can put this discussion to be once and for all.
Don
For a 6D H17 DA2 DAS game, a CVData sim of 400,000,000 rounds (giving 411,149,524 hands) shows the bonus is worth +0.535% to the B.S. player. Of that, 0.218% is due to tied >2 card 21's on undoubled hands (this occurred 872,518 times), and 0.316% is due to tied >2 card 21's on doubled hands (this occurred 632,884). For a $5 flat-bettor, these translate into $1.09/hr and $1.58/hr, for a total of $2.67/hr.