I need help

I lost within 2 shoes(heads up), 7 TC+5 rounds and 6 TC+3 rounds.
It was a six deck game 75%pen, HI/LOW. The running was in both shoes
after 60 cards were dealt +16 and the TC kept its level high until the
cutcard. I lost about 20% of my bankroll within 20 minutes.
Now I am very depressed and need help.

Thank you, Steve

7 TC+5 rounds and 6 TC+3 rounds.

If losing 7(+5) max bets and 6(+3) medium bets accounted for 20% of your bankroll, you were over betting.

Welcome to variance. Recalculate your bank, tailor your spread to it, and win it back.

Hopefully the next time out you will continue to get such favorable betting opportunities. Congratulate yourself for pushing the money out on the table. Continue to play like this and you'll do very well at the game. Get bothered by the losses and you'll soon be out of the game. It is far better to lose 20% of your bank in 20 minutes than in 20 hours, or 200 hours. You will lose the most money the fastest at the best games.

You still have enough to play for a couple more hours.

when the count comes DOWN, and NOT when it STAYS HIGH until the cut card appears! Remember, the shoe contained about 78 cards behind that cut card. Even if the True Count was +10 (Hi-Lo, count-per-deck), there would be 33 low cards along with the 45 high cards (aces and tens)left in the shoe, if the penetration was 75% as you stated. That is still a LOT of low cards to screw up your hand or help the dealer make his hand, even though you do have the advantage.

AB

If this person blew through 20% of BR within 20 minutes then he must seriously re-evaluate his game. It's like I said in a previous thread about a week or two ago, there are some things which separate "someone who knows how to count" from an "advantage player". An advantage player won't get into such situations; he may lose 20% of BR but it sure won't be in 20 minutes. You are correct in saying he was overbetting, either he must reduce his unit size or find a better (2 deck?) game.

Isn't max bet supposed to be approx 1-2% of bankroll? This gives the player approx 50-100 max bets depending on ROR tolerance.

If he was going by the 2% rule here...then 7 max bets could be 14%....and this doesn't include losing max bet splits and double-downs.

I do agree with re-sizing one's bets though. There is something to be said for congratulating him on pushing the big bets out...but I have gone the opposite way. Getting burned too many times on max-bets had killed me far too often.

Instead of spreading 1-15 or so on 6d or 1-8 on 2d (drawing pit scrutiny) I now Wong-out extremely aggressivlely and wong-in reasonably aggressively. My spread is only 1-4 or 1-5 or so...but I really look at it more as a 0-5 spread due to the high number of neutral to negative situations I miss. Obviously, it's more fun to play...but I try to look at my "walking time" as "playing with zero units". Also can pat myself on the back every time a leave a table...and then walk back 10 minutes later to learn that everyone got cleaned out on a hideous shoe. Looked like a left at the right time.
I'm a proud table-hopper, which goes against the point of the game for some.
Will sometimes play 8-10 tables in 1.5-2 hours.

This is basically my solution to not having the necessary bank-roll to spread at same table 1-15 because I just KNOW that my max-bet DD on 11 v. 10 is going to draw a deuce (happens on my max bet EVERY time...oh well, now I am showing you my in-casino ploppy act).

It's extremely short-term of course but I am suffering much less variance and am gradually grinding out my wins more consistently. Obviously, I am less likely to make the "big score" that one can get from a higher bet-spread...but playing for the "big win" is for slots and keno as far as I'm concerned.

so are you saying that you should wait for count reversal before raisng the bet?i believe jerry patterson said the same thing,sometimes after getting hammered with a rising count i tend to agree.

the count will come down. When count decreases, by definition this means the Aces and Tens are now coming out in play, and this helps you more than the dealer. One example is that there will be more blackjacks for everybody, not just you. The dealer has just as good a chance as you to get a blackjack, BUT you get paid 1.5 bets if you get it, and lose only 1.0 bets if dealer gets it. Also you can take insurance if dealer shows an Ace, which is a + expectation if True Count is over +3 (Hi-Lo or Revere, 6 decks).

AB

A skilled Ace-tracker or shuffle tracker MAY be able to predict when the count will come down if the dealer doesn't change his routine during the hand shuffle.

Some say that even Shuffle Master automatic shufflers can be tracked. Not so sure about that...

AB

instead of the count continuing to rise or stay high until the cut card appears.It actually starts dropping,due to our much wanted high cards finally getting over their shyness and starting to appear.Sometimes it seems that all the tens and aces are behind the cut card and never get dealt,thats the shoes that seriously suck.ASK ANYONE,thats when you will seriously get a beating,esp. on doubles.

after all,there are alot of beginners and ploppies out there,theres no stupid question,except the one that you dont ever asks,just tryin to help.

Maybe I should italisize when I'm pulling someone's leg or joking. I should watch out, it could be a seriuously fatal behavioral flaw.