I'm in the last round of a shoe game(6D,S17)and since the RC is +5 I bet max.Now all the other players get high cards but I'm looking at a 3,2 against the dealer's Four.I'm hitting another Three and two more Deuces.Now I have 12v4 and the count has come back to neutral.What is the right play?
Francis Salmon
"What is the right play?"
Whatever makes you happy, Francis! :-)
You know that when you are right at the index for a play, it really makes no difference what you do. Technically, you stand when the TC is >=0, so, since you are at exactly zero, you would stand. But, again, it makes no difference.
By the way, you write that the RC is +5, so you bet the max. Are we to assume that you just take it for granted that penetration is 5/6? :-)
What if it were 4.5/6? 4/6? Still the max?
Don
I usually stand in a neutral count (since the index is -0.1:-))but the more I think about it the more I'm convinced that in the case I described it would be the wrong decision in terms of ev (ok, it wouldn't amount to much!).
Let me explain. There was recently a debate about composition dependent strategy and somebody posted Zenfighter's beautiful tables. I was surprised by the difference betweeen T,2 v 4 (hit) and 7,5 v 4 (stand). It's also general wisdom that one should stand with any multicard-12. But of course these considerations apply only to BS-players.
If I'm not totally mistaken I now think that they have actually the opposite effect in the event of counting.Since the compositions don't make up a neutral count, we have to compensate by mentally removing tens and therefore, hitting becomes considerably more favorable.
My point is: any small card seen will be overcompensated by the corresponding ten. Or in other words and particularly striking in my example: It will produce a deck remainder that is rich in neutral cards and particularly favorable to hitting.
Francis Salmon
The count is the count. You make the play according to the count. What you have seen on THIS hand tells you nothing about what came before. You have no idea how the remaining cards are skewed. Zero is zero. You have no way to surmise what kind of zero you have!
In short, you're overthinking and coming to the wrong conclusion.
Don
