High Count Losses

Hi, I'm new here and need some help. I've digested Scobelete's book on Speed Count as my 1st foray into being a card counter. Initially had a few resonable wins.

However it was disheartening what I experienced over the course of my last 7 visits. I know long losing streaks do happen and must stop playing when the count turns low. But do I exit when losing hand after hand - at consistently high counts ? I persevered with a few biggish bets whenever the count remained high right to the end of each shoe, but lost them all (BTW fairly good rules).

I got the impression from the book and online card counting advice that all I had to do to give myself a fighting chance was to wait for a high count but didn't realise high counts can be killers too. Your comments please.......how to handle this situation - a horrible shoe despite high counts."

I should also mention the character of an earlier shoe - everyone at my table was winning heaps during my "secret" low counts and when I chipped up at the supposedly right time (high counts), lost a series of bets. I can't help feeling now a little disillusioned. Please someone, help give my confidence a little boost. Thanks.

Mistake One: Scobelete (sic). Scoblete started off okay, but strayed on off to voodoo. Turns out, his greatest contribution to advantage play was coining the term "ploppie", which ironically fits his writings now.

Mistake Two: You are looking at short term situations.

Corrective Action: Read some books by Arnold Snyder and host of this site, Stanford Wong to get the advice and assistance for which you are seeking.

You did everything right but Lady Luck just wasn't on your side. This is nothing extraordinary and in the future you will experience far heavier losses.On your way to becoming a pro you have to undergo a steel bath. Just yesterday, I lost 9000$ (about 20 max bets) in a three hour session. But through the whole 2009 I earned 160k.
You need to be prepared to experience setbacks of up to 100 max bets.
It will be hard to accept that and at times you will have the impression that all the Gods are against you and you will learn to curse. But if you keep the faith there is a well deserved award awaiting you.

Francis Salmon

PS. I don't know this Speed Count but if you really mean business you might want to switch to something more efficient.

everything Francis wrote is 100% correct. It is absolutely maddening to lose max bet after max bet in very positive counts, especially if everyone else at the table is winning. Also, when the count is negative and you have sat out and people are pushing big bets out and winning every hand. Unfortunately, the movie 21 was very unrealistic. Playing AP BJ is a grind, not a fast way to riches. It is best described as a roller coaster and not for the faint of heart.

Thanks Guys.

D Duck, you've just confirmed what I thought of Scoblete in terms of substance and writing style. Essence of this book can be summarized in 2 odd pages, the rest is just padding and hype. And he talks down to the reader. Opening lines of book : "I want you to keep a number in your head for awhile. That number is 2.7 as in two-point-seven. Got that ? The number is 2.7. This number will change your blackjack-playing life. This number might also destroy all the casinos in the world......so get thee to the casinos before they disappear..... Once more, that's 2.7 - 2.7 -2.7" All that takes a half-page. I ordered the book because this Count seems easy enough for me to grasp.

F Salmon, I know it's early days yet for me and I know losing big bets is an integral part of a card-counter's diary. My take from all the card-counting material online, was ok, you win some and you lose some or more (max bets) during high counts, after all this is gambling. However I went through a very high-count shoe (total 3 players) with just TWO wins throughout the shoe. Shuffle after shuffle, no change. In the end, everyone gave up. So, is it worth overstaying at a losing table ? This would certainly eat your BR away if so much faith is placed on high counts. I think common sense should prevail in such cases, to conserve your BR. So far to my knowledge no reputable blackjack expert has ever mentioned that high counts can behave like low counts - and I've experienced so many in just a week -and with a better than 75% pen.

Anyway, all your comments do help. What's "nt" BTW ?

"So far to my knowledge no reputable blackjack expert has ever mentioned that high counts can behave like low counts."

I imagine that just about every expert who has ever written a book has mentioned that a thousand times. Here's the way I put it, in Chapter 14 of BJA3:

"On very high counts: What people are continually misunderstanding is that whether we win or lose huge amounts of money, it�s always because of what happens at the high counts. Nobody loses 80 units, one at a time, during an hour session. He loses 80 units because the count got high, and for the seven or eight hands he played at those levels, he lost all or most of them. How else could it be?"

As for, "So, is it worth overstaying at a losing table?," if you're ever going to win a dime playing this game, you may as well learn the following, now and forever: You stay at a table when the count is high, and you leave when it is low. Winning or losing has absolutely nothing to do with it. If you can't understand that, stop playing for a while, until it becomes clear to you.

Don

Just make sure you play the highest quality games you can find. 75% pen is mediocre at 6-8 deck games, pretty good at 4 deck games and great at 1-2 deck games. You'd be amazed at what consistently good pen (and rules) does to your year end results. Many people think just because it's blackjack it can be beaten. Not true. Make sure you search out the games with the best pen and don't ever say, "Ah..what the hell" and sit down and play a poor game out of boredom or because "you're there already". I personally wouldn't play a 6 deck game with more than 1.25 cut off.

As a novice card-counter I knew this is the right place to learn something from you guys, and now with a Blackjack authority like Don joining in the discussion, I'm reminded about the math behind it all.

I'm beginning to see my horrible run last week as a steep learning curve. I'm certainly wiser now having seen high counts in various guises, wicked and prolonged. Now that Don has drummed into me, Stay on High Counts, Leave on Low Counts no matter what, I see the Mathematics behind it - and no one can dispute the workings of Maths.

When I return next time, it will be about upgrading to KO. Cheers!

Old man percentage works day and night... even on wet days.

Just curious. You mentioned there were a total of 3 players at the table and you you only won 2 hands. How many decks were you playing? I'm just curious how many hands you played to only win 2. That would have to be one of the worst rounds I've ever heard.

6 Decks - that's the only choice in this casino. Played whole shoe, like I said. Didn't count number of hands. But worst shoe I've ever experienced was some years back when I was the only player playing heads up with dealer. Lost every hand from start to finish....well almost to finish - won the last hand. At that time, 4 years' experience only, non-counter, and didn't think of walking away hoping things might change. $10 flat-betting - you'll have to work out how many hands played and how much I lost with the shoe.

Learning to count cards, ramp bets and use indices are simple unemotional tasks that can be done at home or in a casino without any gut wrenching. That is till you do this in a casino, high count and lose hand after hand.
It is those players who can withstand this kind of negative variance and have the fortitude (and bankroll)to continue to bet and play according to the count, who land up being lifetime winners at this game. They guy who can count down a shoe the fastest and the guy who might be a mathematical genius but let's his emotions get in the way during a bad session, will just not make the grade.

Learning to count cards is the easy part. Learning to win while counting cards can be much harder.

The average hand is 2.7 cards per and if pen is 75% you are playing with approximately 234 cards out of 312. Heads up you play about 60 hands, with two other players (4 hands total)it is half as many hands or 30.

Winning 2 of 30 hands, perhaps with 3-4 pushes mixed in, it horrible, does not happen often but will happen.

Thanks for the figures. That's why I felt the pinch as table minimum was $30, and on top of that, had the consistent high counts to entice you to do the right thing accordingly. Hence my post about Common Sense. Lower table-minimums here all CSM tables.

Anyway, I can withstand that and now looking at the game with a more positive outlook.

Hi ihate17,

By the way, I hate it too. I think your calculations are incorrect. When you play heads up with the dealer, one hand at a time, you play about 44 rounds (hands). 44=~234/(2.7*2). If you use two spots, you will make about 29 rounds (58 hands). 29=~234/(2.7*3). 58=29*2. With two other players (4 hands total) � 22 rounds (hands), because 22=~234/(2.7*4). So, your figures could be comparatively correct only if you play two hands at a time.

Blackjack Rookie

Stand corrected. I must have forgotten the cut and used all 6 decks.
Thanks for the correction.

Just to throw things off a little more though, when playing heads up I think the average of 2.7 cards per hand must be a little lower than when there are several players at a table. It might only get down to something like 2.62 but here is my reasoning: Heads up there will be more hands where the dealer, having a stiff, will not have to hit it because the sole player already busts. Had there been more players at the table and one of them did not bust, then the dealer would have to take an extra card. Since on a hand like this, 5 cards are used, these 2.5 cards per hand hands, will not change the average significantly anyway.