Here's the problem with card counting...

First of all, the casinos have made it very clear that they find card counting "illegal" in their eyes....so it's illegal.

Second, it takes all the joy out of the game by constantly counting cards and maintaining a "running" tally of points.

Third, just as in life/business/romance etc...risk is rewarded. Card counting reminds me of the guy who wants to never take a risk, who never wants to chase the pretty girl, who would never open their own business, etc... ALL THE WHILE CARD COUNTING IS FLAWED.

When speaking of minute mathmatical edges over the "long run" using forumlations based on "million or thousands" of hands...is ridiculous.

To be successful at card counting, you must play properly. The casinos are watching for you. How well can you do before you're booted. 12K or 20K? Never get there, you'd be gone long before that type of a run. So, what's the point? $400 bucks or $1000 bucks here and there? Hardly seems worth the effort. Perhaps a better paying career or a successful business would be more appropriate.

I'd love to watch a "pro" card counter at work. See what he can do.

Cheers

If card counting is not really worth it, why do the casinos
'outlaw' it? Let counters play.

BJinNJ

Never said it wasn't worth it and I do acknowledge that it must work on some level or the casinos WOULDN"T out law it.

Now, since it is outlawed, how much enjoyment can you derive out of being paranoid the entire time you play?

I stumbled onto this site doing some research on whether or not I would get booted for playing a progression type system. It's good news to hear that the casinos WANT my style of play. I'd put it up against card counters any day. Progression works, I don't care what you or the other card counters say. Progression works, you just have to find YOUR style and play it intelligently.

The difference between me and you is that I accept that your card counting works and if it suits you...so be it. YOu insist that progression doesn't work, but it does.

Cheers.

Your posts so far show that you have very little knowledge of how card counting works, what the edge is, or how much money one can take from doing it. If you are having some success with your progression system, congratulations. However, I guarantee you that if you continue using a progression, your time for losing will come, and when it does, it will come hard. Meanwhile, have a good time, because in the end, that's all you will have had to show for it.

Not sure I agree with you. I've been playing progression bj for 15 years, more seriously in the last 4 years. I GUARANTEE you I have won far more than I have even begun to lose. At this point in my bj life, my entire bankroll is THEIR money. Has been for years. That is the difference in my progression mentality and your card counting. I don't need the "income" from gambling, I do it for fun and the joy of taking it to the casinos.

The odds of running 6 straight losses are very rare, very rare. Does it happen, yes, of course it does. However, the odds are with you that you can simply make it through ONE shoe without running 6 losses. On average, playing by yourself on a $100 table, you will win between 25 and 30 times through one shoe. It does take $12,800 to play this shoe. At the end of the shoe, you will be up $2500 bucks or $3000 bucks. Time to quit and go have a drink and a show.

Once you've BEATEN the odds and built your bankroll, it gets easier. Yes, there are outliers that will run your losses to 6 or more, but it is very rare.

If you don't believe me, buy 6 decks of cards and deal your own shoe. Deal to 5 or 6 places and the dealer, play according to dealer rules and see just how long it takes for ANY of the 5 or 6 players to run 6 or more losses. You will find that rarely will you lose 3 or 4, let alone 6 times. The amount you bet is the key, your progression is the key to maximize your profit. That is what is up to the individual player. This style depends on the old art of gambling, not just mathmatically generated odds.

I don't dispute that card counting works, it does. What I dispute is the fact that they are looking for you. They can tell when you are card counting and they will take appropriate action. So, good luck to you all and I'll be smiling as they escort you out the door.

Cheers.

Just what type of progression insures $2500 profit per shoe?

First of all, the casinos have made it very clear that they find card counting "illegal" in their eyes....so it's illegal.

It's not interest groups like casinos but the society as a whole that sets the standards and I don't think that the man in the street considers using one's brain as illegal. Nevada where casinos can bar players on the grounds that they are simply playing too well is rather an exception. In most places in the world, casinos have to find a better reason than that.

Second, it takes all the joy out of the game by constantly counting cards and maintaining a "running" tally of points.

This is true for beginners.But with the time counting becomes second nature.

Third, just as in life/business/romance etc...risk is rewarded. Card counting reminds me of the guy who wants to never take a risk, who never wants to chase the pretty girl, who would never open their own business, etc...

If you think that the profession of a card counter doesn't involve risk you are way off. It is the main reason why we are not more numerous.

ALL THE WHILE CARD COUNTING IS FLAWED.
When speaking of minute mathmatical edges over the "long run" using forumlations based on "million or thousands" of hands...is ridiculous.

This sounds as if you're trying to convince yourself that card counting isn't worth the effort.One thing thats surely flawed is your progression system.

To be successful at card counting, you must play properly. The casinos are watching for you. How well can you do before you're booted. 12K or 20K? Never get there, you'd be gone long before that type of a run. So, what's the point? $400 bucks or $1000 bucks here and there? Hardly seems worth the effort. Perhaps a better paying career or a successful business would be more appropriate.

Camouflage is part of the job and there are thousands of casinos in the world.The personnel is not always very intelligent and even when they've detected you they do not or cannot always take efficient measures against you.

I'd love to watch a "pro" card counter at work. See what he can do.

You would have to watch for a year to get the right idea.

Francis Salmon

There are some deep flaws in your logic. They are indicative of a lack of both experience and basic knowledge about the game. Losing six hands in a row is not a rare experience if you put in any significant time at the tables. The odds of such a loss, discounting ties, are about 1.2%, which is not a rare event at all. Your progression is going to have to find a way to make up for that devastating loss. In a negative expectation game, that is impossible.

You mentioned winning, on average, between 25 and 30 hands on a heads-up shoe. In a heads-up six deck game, with 1.5 decks cut out, you will play, on average, about 43.5 hands. You are claiming a win rate of 57% to 69%. If someone won 57% of the time, he'd have a hard time losing. Do you think the casinos would offer a game where you won even money bets 57% of the time?

This is why casinos will never knowingly bar a progression player. There are some casinos stupid enough to not be able to tell the difference between a progression player and a counter, but the Wynn isn't one of them, so you're safe.

If you are winning more hands than you are losing just always bet table max, or the amount your bankroll can absorb if you happen to loss 5 hands in a row.

Frenchman

It is not that rare, as a matter of fact neither is 10 straight. In fact what is rare is over 20 straight but I have done this now 4 times in 30 years of play. No counting pushes my worst must have been somewhere between 25-27 losses in a row and if you add doubles and splits as additional hands it totaled over 30.
These things happened, they happened on several tables, sometimes several casinos, it is just severe negative variance. One very interesting point is that as someone who does not play a progression, shortly after two of these extreme losing periods I bounced back and was in the black in less than an hour. Now if I had been a progression player I would have already lost the income of a mid sized national economy and would have had no casino on earth to re-coup in.

Also, I seriously doubt anyone who thinks 6 straight losses is very rare and also claims to have been playing for 15 years, unless you mean that perhaps you played once every 3 years or so for 15 years. Every single non counting player can tell you about how common this kind of streak is.

ihate17

you can use any system, the key is to use the betting system you like to maximize your loss options. The Wynn has the best spreads in Vegas, you can have 7 or even 8 losses on their spreads.

The difference between progression and card counting is balls. It takes balls to risk 9K to win 100 bucks. Period. Card counters will find that stupid, oh well. I find spending hours upon hours playing to eek out a little advantage is stupid.

There's no guarantee with card counting either. You're still prone to lose. Just because your "count" is favorable, it doesn't mean the dealer isn't going to get all those twenties and Bj's you're counting on. If it was so profitable, there'd be way more of you. it still comes down to luck, on some level. Irregardless of the math, luck is still involved.

Cheers,
Mark

No kidding Sherlock. Losing 6 or 7 hands in a row is an everyday occurance. I have been following this tread and methinks someone is yanking our collective chains. Just a guesstimate, but I would say that in any three hours of play, whether chopped up or continuous, it doesn't matter, at least one or two runs of such losses do occur with more or less regularity.

Cobbson

You say casinos find counting illegal so it's illegal. Huh? Casinos don't make laws in the United States, the government does and no where in the country is it illegal to use your brain.
You say counting takes all of the joy out of the game. We're not playing for "joy", we're professionals and we're playing for money. After we leave the casino we get all the "joy" we want.
You say card counters never want to take risks. Not so. Gambling in and of itself is taking a risk. The difference between the risks that we take and the risks that you take is that we're taking calculated, educated risks based on mathematics, whereas, you're taking blind risks.
You say counting is "flawed". That card counting works when applied to blackjack is a mathematical fact proven over the past 40 years.

You say counters won't make anything if they're "booted". Well that's why extensive methods of camoflauge were developed to prevent casino personel from detecting counters.

You say maybe a "better paying career or successful buisness would be more appropriate". How do you know what any of us are making and furthermore who are you to decide what's "appropriate"?

In so far as watching a pro at work, you'd see that over time they make alot more than they lose. If you have such a dislike for card counting, here's an idea: don't do it.

You really think casinos don't make their own rules? The law is on their side due to their, uh, lobbying efforts...if you get my drift. Your argument that the government makes laws is a joke.

As for blind risk, you feel my risk is somehow blind because it's higher than yours? The percentages are not that far apart actually. For some reason, counters have such a problem with progression. Why is that? Are you paranoid that progressionists somehow take away from your self appointed Professor Plum mentality? Are we making it too simple?

I play relaxed, I play with a beer in my han, I play with a smile on my face. I also win. You should actually try a little progression, I think you'd like it.

Cheers.

I think you're a casino spy infiltrating this board trying to hock a worthless progression system to try to get us all to lose. No thanks. I like winning way to much. Maybe the casinos are trying to push progression systems in response to the new blackjack movie so people won't count, they'll use progessions and lose in the long run.

Talking about spreads means you are using either a Fibonacci or a Martingale or derivative. You would get more bang for your buck by going to a game with less variance such as craps (passline only) or bacarrat (banker bet). With these games you can switch sides unlike bj where you are at the mercy of the dealer.

progressions are fairly simple and mostly vary according to the betting strategy. I say use whatever works for you that can at least allow you to play the game. Counting gets you boote and I suspect after the movie 21 comes out....more idiots than ever will be trying to count and the casinos will be even more diligent.

I personally think they're using the movie as a back drop for booting countings. It's feels like they're setting a hollywood precedent, letting everyone know that counting is "wrong" and considered illegal by the casinos and you will be booted. New counters will go into it KNOWing they are gonna get booted and aren't supposed to be engaged in this behavior. AND that it won't be tolerated by the casinos.

Good luck my stealthy adversaries,
mark