I want to comment on something you said:
If you lose big, you'll be welcomed back to that casino with open arms. If you win big, you'll quickly find yourself running out of places to play.
At some casinos in the boondocks, loosing will buy some longevity. However, more and more casinos will ignore losses in evaluating and rejecting a player. Paradoxically, sometimes a big loss will call attention to the player, which will lead to a tape review, and then Hasta La Vista.
This is especially true in Nevada. I would say that in Vegas casinos, a loosing record gets you almost nothing. It might help with some comps, but it doesn�t prevent back-offs. Many of my rejections have come from places where I have had a loosing record.
Now a second we need to mention is Risk of Ruin. The RoR equations are based on the premise that all winnings are re-invested in the bank. Here we are talking about taking some of those winnings and spending them on living expenses. This greatly increases the RoR.
Let us take an example. Suppose our player starts with his 10K bank, and makes 7K the first quarter. But he takes 5K out for expenses.
Next quarter he makes 3K, and takes another 5K out. The next quarter he loses 6K, and he can no longer take 5K out for expenses. After he spends 4K, he is bust.
Now as far as the RoR equations go, he has not tapped out. Indeed, the RoR equations think he his bankroll is now 14K. (The original 10K, plus 7K+3K-6K). But he is broke he has squandered that 14K on things like rent money and clothing.