first time out counting

well, ive been practicing counting for a few weeks now, done endless amounts of reading, so i finally went out this weekend to get in on some action and see waht i can do.

i made a few huge mistakes, lets see what you guys think of this
had about $1200 in cash on me

8 decks
70 percent pen
dealer stands soft 17
double any 2 cards
double after splitting
no resplit aces, aces get 1 card only
and the bet minx and max are $50-1000 on the one table

so i walk around see that alot of the tables are full, even 25 and 50 dollar min tables were full!!
so i find a table with a 50 min 1000 max with 2 players on it
they have used up around 4-5 decks, so i know that a shuffle is comming in soon, i wait for the shuffle and proceed to play
(im using hi low system)
i skip out the first hand,
the running count is +2 i jump in and bet 50
i loose my first hand, running counnt goes to +4
i loose that hand, and now the running count is +7
lots of low cards have came out, so i figure what the hell
i bet 150 on a hand, win that hand, and the running count is around 7 or 8, playing again 150 hand and contiue to win while the count gets higher.
the running count is now +10 and im up about 500
i put out a 250 dollar bet, and i get two 3's versus dealer upcard of 5. I than split the threes, crack a 8 on the first 3 and i double down i hit a 9 for a total of 20, i than proceed to my next 3 and i hit a 10 and stay on 13, next player plays, and the dealer brakes, perfect i win $750

the running count than goes on and on varying from about +7 to about +13 at one point, and im betting
$150 at +7 - +8
$200 at +9 - +10
$250 at +10 or higher
all in all the shoe finishes and im up about $2200 profit
i say thats it for now, and they comp me 4 passes to a free buffet

i leave the casino for a bit, go back to the hotel and do some shopping etc..
i return later on and play the same game 50 min 1000 max
im bouncin around a bit from points of up 300 to down 300
im down about 300 and the running count is +10, i bet $250 and i get a pair of aces. PERFECT im thinking, i split the aces and crack another ace on the one, and a 3 on the other :( dealer turns over his card has 13, hits a 6 and beats me with 19, im down about 800 now, and i place another 250 dollar bet, i win that one, and the running count went down to about +2, i bet $50 for a few hands and end up winning a few, than when the count got upto +13 in literally 2 rounds of play, i bet $400 on one hand a $200 on another hand, i loose the 400, and i win the 200, i play for another 10 min until the shoe ends, and at that point i have lost $900
i go grab the buffet ticket and head over there
i than return to the tables, play some more and never really saw a runnign count of +7 or more, so i end up breaking even and wonging out halfway threw the shoe

i than head to my last stop, a $25 dollar table, with no one at the table
i play some one on one with the dealer and end up loosing about $400
spreading as follows

running count +4 or below - 25 dollars
running count +5 - +6 50 dollars
running count +7 - +8 100 dollars
running count +9 - +10 $125

i than give it one more go at the at the 50 - 1000 table and dont see anything great, win a little loose a little, not realyl betting more than 150 a hand

i count all my winnings, and im just shy of 1100, (somehting like $1070 i beleive)

anyways
i walk out with 1070, and a long list of regrets, i played the basic strategy right, made all the right moves, but something just doesnt seem right, its like it was luck

any comment would be great guys, thanks

Glad to see you won. But we don't want you to take on a false sense of security from a fortunate result.

Unless your using KO count system, you're bet sizing should be based on True Count rather than RC. I noticed you said you were playing 8D. Remember, you have to get to 8-9RC at the beginning of the shoe before you even start to have an advantage. Therefore, you're just playing a losing game mathematically until then. There is no reason to increase your bet 'till you get to at least 1TC. You started increasing too soon.

Also, especially with 8D, you need to do some back counting and then wong-in when the TC is +1 or better. Must wong-out at -2 or worse.

8D takes a lot of patience and a lot of wonging or at least a large bet spread.

With only $1200 to strart your big bet should only be about $25.
Your ROR is astronomical. You lucked out.

thats exactly what the guy at the cafe said to me, he was playing with me at a table once and could tell right off the bat i was a counter i told him my story and he said i was overbetting big time and i just hit a lucky streak.

it just seems that the true count takes forever to get up really high?

its almost like you have to wait till 4 decks have been played, 4 remainign and a running count of 10 or more to make a big bet?

how often does the true count get over 2 or 3 in a 8 deck game, and how long would it last (generally speaking)

What books recommended you play that way? Major luck was on your side.

it just seems that the true count takes forever to get up really high?

If you don't have patience, you need to stay away from anything more than 2D.

its almost like you have to wait till 4 decks have been played, 4 remainign and a running count of 10 or more to make a big bet?

Not necessarily.

how often does the true count get over 2 or 3 in a 8 deck game, and how long would it last (generally speaking)

This is the really cool part about multi decks. It gets over 3 quite often. I don't know exactly how much but probably about 20 - 25% of the shoes you play. The really cool thing is that once it gets there, it's TC average is the same to the end. It's really, really cool when a large slug of junk cards go to the discard tray in the beginning of the shoe. It's hog heaven thereafter usually all the way to the cut card.

1. You need to convert to TC.

2. At a 50 min table, your BR is almost guaranteed to visit the casino vault. If you do any spreading of your bet, you will be betting a significant part of your BR.

If you don't have a good counting software package (IE Casino Verite or something similar) you ought to wait for a 5-10 limit table. Or, even better, stand back, back-count, and make sure you can deal with counting at the speed necessary to keep up, where cards are not always arranged so that _you_ can see them easily, etc.

But by all means, start smaller. And work on eyeballing the discard tray to estimate decks remaining and divide that into the RC to get a TC for betting/playing...

the CV software has a drill for this. If you don't have it, get several decks and work on estimating the number of decks in the discard pile...

If you play 10 shoes, I suspect you will see a decent TC in maybe 3 of them. And that is not guaranteed, don't forget "variance". I played a _bunch_ of 2d last week and hardly ever saw a TC good enough to raise my bet on. I was playing on the CV software tonight just tuning up for an upcoming visit to Philly in MS, and the 2d game tonight was just miserable. I even cranked penetration up to 80% to see what would happen. Just more hands at poor counts. :)

If you notice several harping on bet spreads, that is why. If you play 2d, you can't wong in and out without attracting a flamethrower. So you get to play all those bad counts as well, and those few times where you have an advantage you run your bet up to make up. For shoe games, if you "wong" you can reduce your bet spread, because you only play when you have an advantage. If you don't wong, then you have to spread like mad as a 6d-8d shoe lasts a _long_ time... And most of the time the TC will be bad...

You should pick-up "Blackjack Attack" by Arnold Schlesinger

Best Blackjack book I have ever read and it will explain how often positive true counts occur in 8D shoes and will definitely explain in detail your mathematical chances of going broke, standard deviation, ETC.

And will definitely let you see that you severely overbet.

Good Luck and keep winning !!

You should also find a better game. It sounds like you are on the East Coast as I and have to deal with AC Blackjack.

This was hit on by others, but to make it clear:

You bet big when you have the advantage, small when you do not. You gain the advantage somewhere just beyond the point where RC > decks remaining, which is where the TC climbs over 1. I personally start to raise my bet at a TC of +2, which is somewhere around .5% advantage in my favor.

At a TC of +2 or higher you _can_ run out your big bet instantly. There are two problems.

1. You will be picked up as a counter very quickly if you go from $5 to $60 in one jump, particularly when the dealer remembers that your jump corresponded to several small cards coming out on the previous hand...

2. you stand a good chance of going broke, because you are increasing the bankroll variance, which is a direction function of how much you bet. The less you bet, the less chance of a quick ruin. But the less chance of any sort of profit if you don't spread enough to overcome the hands you play at 1 unit with a bad count.

So your overall "plan" was not that bad, just very risky. You should do a bit of practice on estimating decks remaining, and when the RC is > 2x that number, you can bet big.

Or you can be more conservative and ramp your bet up as your advantage increases, as previously mentioned by me and several others, which will mean you have to spread a bit more since you won't get your big bet out as quickly, but then you also reduce the BR fluctuations since you are not betting big when the game is nearly a coin-toss.

So, as I said, your idea was right. Bet big when you have the advantage. But a good blackjack risk-of-ruin calculator can help you to get into a reasonable "bet ramp progression" that won't almost guarantee you a quick exit in defeat.

That's a counter's worst nightmare. Over-betting will make you more money, if you surivive the negative variance. But that is a big IF. IE if you have only 6 big bets, just play blackjack at a simulator and watch how many times you lose 6 hands in a row at a good + count. It happens. Hopefully fewer times than at a big - count, but with the big + count you have more money at risk.

While I don't mind your supporting our local casinos, I'd rather see us all making withdrawals rather than deposits. :)

Let the non-BS players make the deposits that we vacuum into our chip stacks. :)

"You should pick-up "Blackjack Attack" by Arnold Schlesinger."

Freudian slip? That's Don Schlesinger. :-) There was another blackjack author whose first name is Arnold, but he seems to have disappeared. :-)

"Best Blackjack book I have ever read."

Thank you very much. Glad you enjoyed.

Don

I thought he was confusing you with "the terminator" myself. :)

Well, why the regrets if you won? If you win, its always right! (At least that is what I say to anyone that makes a play/bet that is against the book).

Points--

A. $1200 bankroll is small for the game you were playing if you were going to play an extended period of time. Per Stanford Wong's Professional Blackjack, a short weekend trip to a casino in which you may play 20 hours calls for a bankroll of approximately 40 large bets (average of two for every hour of play, assuming you were using a play all approach). With a spread of 1-8 or 1-10 and a $50 minimum, you would have a large bet of $500, or enough to play 1 to 2 hours with play all. HOWEVER, you smartly used a wong-in approach, entered on a positive count, and were spreading 1-5 ($50 to $250). Thus your bankroll had 5 large bets, or an amount recommended by Wong for about 2.5 hours of waiting/playing---assuming you were able to exit/avoid the negative counts, and could enter easily when the count was positive. Still, you had a high risk of ruin, and though you almost doubled your bankroll, if you returned to that game I would think you would still have a high risk of bankruptcy, albeit lower that before.

B. Your choice of counting system, Hi-Lo, is an excellent choice for a shoe game--high betting correlation and a simple count. No regrets there.

C. Choice of game--8 deck shoe game with penetration to 70%, or 2.4 decks cut off. That does not seem like a good game because of the penetration even though the rules that are otherwise good. You might get a copy of Blackjack Attach to help you with judging the rules/penetration trade-off. Still, if it is the game in your area, what else can you do other than making a long trip (read expensive) to a place with better games?

D. Attack Strategy--back count an 8 deck shoe with a 1-5 spread, I think no less a person that Don Schlessinger says that the only way to play the "8 deck monsters" is with a back-count approach. Your bet ramp was perhaps reckless as you seemed to have used running count to increase bets rather than true count...(do I understand incorrectly or did you inadvertently omit some details).

E. Heat--No mention, and you got comped too!

So, it sounds like a good first outing! Were the regrets because you did not leave at you all time high? Well, suppose you left after your first session. I bet you would always think you quit a hot streak early and you let the casino off easy!

Overall, you did enough things right (learn to count, play on positive counts, up your bet as the count increased) to win.

Now you undoubtedly have enthusiam to continue studying blackjack and improving your game! Congradulations!

I was at work rushing so my client would not notice that I was on BJ21.com.

I have read "Blackjack Attack", by Don Schlesinger at least five times. The Best Blackjack Book ever. The only book needed to play competative Blackjack.

Once again, Don I am sorry and I am sorry to the board for posting erroneous info.

RC

ive read alot about what everyone said and it all seems to make sense now,

however im thinking about changing my count the ko count in order to stop converting running count to true count

according to qfit.com they say a ko count is better than a hi low count in a 8 deck game

and i will definatley look into buying that simulator software,,
thanks GP ;)

any comments on going to ko counting system
thanks

There is much to be excited about in this third, �Ultimate Weapon,� edition of Blackjack Attack. As the subtitle suggests, I have tried to cram in the pages of this one volume an incredible amount of highly sophisticated blackjack information. To that end, I have eagerly sought the advice and collaboration of some of the keenest minds in the area of blackjack research, and together, we have broken new ground in several ways.

Here, then, are the major additions and improvements to be found in this third edition: first and foremost is the complete revision of the Chapter 10 charts, by Norm Wattenberger, to include optimal betting ramps, unit sizes, SCOREs, and much, much more; a light piece, �More on SCORE,� appended to the SCORE chapter, as we seek ways to distinguish between the �original� concept of SCORE, and the �generic� meaning the term has taken on; the complete version of the Optimal Departure study, which began in the second edition of BJA, but was completed in a subsequent issue of Blackjack Forum; four brand-new risk of ruin equations, encompassing goal-reaching and time-constraint concepts, and an enlightening testing of the formulas� accuracy, through the computer simulations of Dan Pronovost; an entirely new Chapter 12, as a mythical blackjack team takes a �Random Walk Down the Strip,� utilizing John Auston�s genial software application, BJRM 2002; a three-part Appendix, courtesy of the amazing Cacarulo, with almost 100 pages (!) of precise expectation tables, basic strategy charts (the most accurate in print), and effects of rules variations on basic strategy expectations; finally, a modified cover design, an enlargement of the book�s format, and, for collectors, an elegant hard-cover edition, which will be followed by a softcover version.

We learn to �never say never,� but, with this �Ultimate Weapon,� I believe I have furnished virtually all of the tools that the traditional card counter must have at his disposal to levy a full-blown attack on the casinos. I�m sure you�ll let me know if I�ve left anything out, but, for now, this third edition of Blackjack Attack contains just about everything I know about the game of blackjack. As one reviewer observed (speaking of the second edition), I suggest that you �don�t leave home without it.� Enjoy!

Don Schlesinger

New York, February 2004