expected win rate for this

6d, h17, das, double any 2 cards, rsa allowed. play all. 25 min max $500 max and if playing 2 hands, total max bet is $500 (one 500 or 2 x $250). Penetration about 5.4-5.6 out of 6 decks on the generally empty, high limit table. So, I can expect in the range of 100-200 hands/hour. Note: it is listed in CBJN, but list a little off on the penetration. When it is toast for me, I will be happy to share the name. Tyring to decide if it is worth a special trip for me.

jpb,

Heads up, a HiLo counter spreading $25-$500 with 5.5/6 pen on this game has a WR of $133.99/hr (per 100 rounds, that is), with a Std. Dev. of $1525.03/hr and a SCORE of 77.20. With a $20K BR, your RoR is 9.9%. CVCX gives this spread:

 

TC  Bet 

<2  $25 

+2 $100 

+3 $175 

+4 $250 

+5 $325 

+6 $400 

>6 $500 

that is exactly what I was looking for. I do not have that CV software- but I am considering getting it.
I was a bit surprised at the recommended bets- my rule of thumb has always been to max bet at TC of +5. But, with a $500 max bet, it is a small percentage of bankroll.

jpb,

With such deep pen, you can afford to be very choosy about when you place your max bet. According to CVCX, you'll still be max-betting 3.1% of the rounds with the indicated spread.

Conversely, when the pen is shallow, you place your max bet EARLIER. For instance, if the pen were only 3.5/6, CVCX suggests a max bet at only +3.

By the way, CVCX is an excellent piece of software for answering questions such as these.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

With bad pen you need to use a smaller unit and bigger spread. Your top bet winds up being at an earlier true count only because you virtually never get to the higher true count. Your bet at each TC should be the same no matter the penetration level for the same rules set (although with floating advantage it might be slightly higher at each TC if pen is insanely deep).

For example if you normally bet 2@$200 at each 0.5% edge then your deep penetration play-all ramp might look something like

<+2 1x50
+2 2x200
+3 2x400
+4 2x600
+5 2x800
+6 2x1000

For a really bad penetration game counts above +4 aren't likely to happen so if you want to maintain at least a 20-1 spread you have to cut your bottom bets instead of 1x$50 you have to either bet 1x25 OR keep your 1x$50 bottom bet and use one of the various wonging approaches. Our team just keeps the same betting unit, top bet, and ramp for each scheme and caps our top scheme bet at +7 (roughly 3% advantage) and we just know that for a bad game we have to table hop much more or use a smaller bottom bet or play lower table limits to create a bigger actual spread.

$50 - $1000 is quite a spread. Can this be done over 1-2 hours without getting to much notice from the pit bosses?
Brendan