Just for fun I calculated the value of a first card in lucky ladies. I've seen some impressive math people on here, so could someone compare answers with me? This is my first time calculating EV of a first card.
This is for double deck 1000/200/25/10/4/-1 payout.
Qh: +311.92%
Kc: +105.83%
Ad: -55.34%
8S: -100.00%
The problem is that you won't know which will be your first card until it's on the felt.So, even if your calculations are correct they don't have any practical value.
When I checked that Lucky Ladies side-bet, I found it was 17% for the house if I remember correctly, among the worst of all side bets offered.
Francis Salmon
It's worser in 6/8 deck with the 125-1 payoff. 24.64%.
I calculate for double deck the house edge is actually 24.94% for double deck and this pay table. Doesn't mean it can't be beat!
This is mostly for my own mathematical endeavors and my mind wandering to a what if situation.
Say, what if the dealer has a mis-deal (skips a person or something) after dealing you your first card and it's a nine. Pit boss asks you if you'd like to pull back your bets. My math says pull back the side bet. Other peoples' math (people smarter than me) says also pull back the main bet.
Sorry if my post bores you. Feel free to ignore it. Anyone else who takes interest in this, I appreciate your time.
I have never played side bets. Yet I have seen even non counters win or get lucky at this. Thanks in advance and good cards. LWC
I thought that lucky ladies might work for a CC if the counts real high. Glad I never tried it after these post.
There are others here who are glad they did try it.
I don't think that with a traditional hilo-count you can ever detect an advantage situation for the lucky ladies bet. But counting the queens might bring you eventually into positive territory.
Alas, I have seen this lucky-ladies bet almost exclusivly in connection with CSMs.
I think that one of the most promising side bets is "push your luck" which pays a very fair 10:1 for every standoff.
If you adapt your basic strategy hitting far more often than usual in order to reach the "pushable" scores of 17 to 21 you can even turn the odds into your favor.
Unfortunately,this side bet is very hard to find.
Francis Salmon
StrangeMage,
I concur with your EV for a first-card Heart Queen: 311.91681%:
Hand Pays Prob. Return.
Qh-Qh & BJ 1000 4.52358E-04 0.4523582
Qh-Qh 200 9.25638E-03 1.8512759
Matched 20 25 0.00000E+00 0.0000000
Suited 20 10 5.82524E-02 0.5825243
Unsuited 20 4 2.33010E-01 0.9320388
Loser -1 6.99029E-01 -0.6990291
Total 3.1191681
Some people just have no imagination.
I was hoping you'd chime in Doghand. Amusing story!
A little bit of math and creativity is what makes gambling fun/profitable!
I've learned a lot from you Francis even when I ask you the same thing twice. If Don reads this I hope he will give his insite as well.
Thanks to all who responded to the side bet?.
Good Cards LWC
Dear Francis,
What you shared, lacks detail of the basics. No disrespect intended.You have taught me to much to do such a thing.
If your speaking of CSMs only, you did't clarify this. Best way to play CSMs is while self medicated or not at all.
Lets hope that never happens to any of us. Lucky Ladies can be found at my local store 6dk shoe game. Good rules.
A side count of Qs would be just as easy as a side count of A;s during HiLo AP. So in your educated comments. You have left me confused. I;ve had this defect before.
Are you telling me that over time I can expect a positive EV? Or am I at the stardard neg. 17%... Can we have are cake and it to?
P/S Comments welcome, We are here to learn, most of us.
Many thanks, & Goood Cards; LWC.
