what is EV if my 1st cd is 9, 6 decks
1) DAS, ES10
2) no DAS, E10
3) no DAS no surr
6 decks, not 1d.
if it is TC 1 or 2, should i bet if mine is 9.
SCAA71,
I ran a quick CVData sim for a 6D S17 DA2 DAS ENHC ES10 game with a shuffle after every round. Oh... I assumed the "ENHC" and "S17" rules: if I was hasty, please let me know and I'll rerun the sim.
I also used the "MRI Slice" option to see the results for ONLY the hands where the player's first card is a nine. The lone player used straight B.S.
His IBA is -0.726%, with a TBA of -0.660%. The only 2-card totals that provided +EV (averaged over all the dealer's upcards) were 11, 19, A-9, and 9-9: all others were -EV. Of these, only A-9 provided +EV against ANY dealer upcard.
Since the other two rules sets are less favorable, we know that for those cases the IBA will be even worse for the player.
I don't know for certain whether having a TC of +1 or +2 will make the situation +EV... I can try the same sim, but short the deck 6 (or 12) small cards to see one possible answer. However, it'll be a bit skewed by the relative surplus of medium (7-8-9) cards. I'll try it for +2 and see.
Dog Hand
SCAA71,
I reran the sim, using a pack that was shorted by 12 small cards (two each of 2's, 3's, and 6's; three each of 4's and 5's). Now the IBA is -0.450%: better, but still negative.
Looks like you should pass on those first-card-9 hands ;-)
Dog Hand
Since Griffin "The Theory of Blackjack" 1979 p.143 shows the player's advantage as zero when his first card is 9. He shows that the only 2 cards that give the player an advantage when receiving his first card are A & X. Anything else is a big disadvantage. Now if you can figure out getting a 9 on your first card in Baccarat you can own Vegas.
thks to Dog hand, yes S17, ENHC.
-0.72% for 6d.
so what TC is even if i get a 9 ?
besides, can u run a sim. :
dlr always has 10 as hole card but u don't know, u play basic all the times. dlr doesn't peek the hole card immediately.
ur EV ?
same rule as above, S17 , ES10....
for double down purposes is not valuable?
SCAA71,
I ran a 4-billion-round sim for a 6D S17 ES10 ENHC game with 5/6 pen, but used the "MRI Slice" feature to record only those hands where the player's first card is a 9. Here is the B.S. IBA as a function of TC:
.
TC IBA
31 -100.00%
30
29 100%
28 -33.33%
27 50.00%
26 -53.85%
25 20.00%
24 -1.89%
23 -4.66%
22 -1.22%
21 -11.90%
20 -8.91%
19 -4.43%
18 -3.71%
17 -2.62%
16 -3.02%
15 -1.66%
14 -1.62%
13 -0.67%
12 -1.38%
11 -0.69%
10 -0.65%
9 -0.39%
8 -0.30%
7 -0.23%
6 -0.09%
5 -0.13%
4 -0.09%
3 -0.28%
2 -0.41%
1 -0.59%
0 -0.90%
-1 -1.19%
-2 -1.44%
-3 -1.76%
-4 -2.04%
-5 -2.54%
-6 -3.13%
-7 -3.50%
-8 -4.16%
-9 -4.38%
-10 -5.32%
-11 -6.09%
-12 -6.58%
-13 -7.75%
-14 -7.41%
-15 -9.44%
-16 -10.29%
-17 -10.91%
-18 -10.49%
-19 -11.30%
-20 -9.17%
-21 -16.14%
-22 -18.01%
-23 -21.88%
-24 -31.31%
-25 -15.91%
-26 -23.53%
-27 -33.33%
-28
-29 100%
-30
-31
-32
-33 100%
thks Dog Hand to solve my Qn.
unexpectedly, no adv even in high TC if i get a 9.
what is 'MRI slice', it is helpful, can u explain?
another Qn, if i do card seq, i know a 10 will go to dlr's 1st card or
my 2nd card at 1st box, equal chance 50/50.
same rule as above,6d, ES10.....
if it is TC 0, i have no adv, suppose the chance of dlr or me get the 10, freq 50% each.
dlr get the 10, my EV -ve 16-17%
i get it my EV + 13%, right?
again, what TC is break even point for Hi lo. ?
Griffin shows the following :
Players advantage (in %) when first card is:
A: 52
2: -12
3: -14
4: -16
5: -19
6: -18
7: -17
8: -9
9: 0
x: 13
Playing a 9 is comparable to BS. So you can do what you want with the info. with BJ.
Hi Dog Hand,
"As you can see, the IBA is negative for all TC's in the range of -20 to +20. Outside this range, a few odd data points occur: for example, if the TC is -29, then the first-card 9 is GREAT! ;-)"
I think the winking smiley indicates yer joshin us, right?
I'm sorry I don't know the typical frequency of TC=-29. I normally don't even record counts outside the range -20 to +20 -- I just lump 'em all together.
Was the -29 result based on 1 round? 2 rounds? If so, maybe you should reassess. We don't need dozens of bj21 readers backcounting $20K max tables (wheelchair, maybe? around first base?) in Vegas waiting for -29. ;-)
ETF
SCAA71,
I ran two more 4-billion-round sims for a 6D, S17, ES10, ENHC game with 5/6 pen for a heads-up player using HiLo tags but playing straight B.S., again using the "MRI Slice" option. This is an option in CVData that allows the user to track only specific data in a given sim. In this case, in the first sim I tracked ONLY those hands for which the player's 1st card was an X (of course, this is equivalent to having the player's 2nd card be an X). Overall, a 1st card X is worth +14.32% to the player. I then ran a second sim where I tracked ONLY those hands for which the dealer's upcard was an X: overall, these hands gave the player an edge of -17.61%. I then compared the EV vs. TC for these two sims. Below is the output, truncated to include only those TC's for which at least 100,000 rounds were played:
.
TC Player Dealer Edge
16 20.59% -16.39% 4.21%
15 20.40% -16.77% 3.64%
14 20.48% -16.82% 3.66%
13 20.26% -17.22% 3.04%
12 20.06% -17.47% 2.60%
11 19.60% -17.46% 2.14%
10 19.26% -17.65% 1.60%
9 18.91% -17.92% 0.99%
8 18.59% -17.92% 0.67%
7 18.16% -17.97% 0.19%
6 17.78% -18.01% -0.23%
5 17.28% -18.00% -0.72%
4 16.76% -18.01% -1.25%
3 16.26% -17.94% -1.69%
2 15.74% -17.87% -2.14%
1 15.16% -17.81% -2.65%
0 14.33% -17.65% -3.32%
-1 13.45% -17.51% -4.06%
-2 12.79% -17.39% -4.60%
-3 12.11% -17.25% -5.15%
-4 11.36% -17.04% -5.68%
-5 10.53% -16.83% -6.30%
-6 9.78% -16.57% -6.79%
-7 8.97% -16.38% -7.41%
-8 8.17% -16.11% -7.94%
-9 7.15% -15.79% -8.65%
-10 6.43% -15.50% -9.07%
-11 5.49% -15.01% -9.52%
-12 4.36% -14.80% -10.44%
-13 3.58% -14.80% -11.22%
-14 2.32% -14.15% -11.83%
