Entering mid shoe without knowing count?

Assume the game is 8 deck total. DAS, 75 pen (6 out of 8 decks). I come in mid shoe without back counting and 2 decks have already been played. That now leaves a total of 6 decks in the shoe, 4 of which is playable (2 decks still are behind cutcard). How do I play this game?

Do I play it as if it is a 6 deck game with 66% pen and start my counting at 0?

Do I simply play it as an 8 deck game with still 75% pen?

You would enter it like it was a fresh deck eight deck game with 4 decks cutoff. Penetration is all about how many cards you actually get to see, if they've been played before you walk up to the table then you will never see them and they are exactly the same as if they are behind the cut card.

Hi, Bigplayer, I understand. But let's say that in the discard tray, there are cards that, at that point in time is giving you a game that is now at a -2% negative advantage. You don't know this though because you are just coming in mid shoe.

You go to play at this game mid shoe thinking it is at the accepted house advantage of about -.5%, and alot of low cards come out in a couple hands, and a few hands later, you think you are at a 1.5% advantage (up 2% from the -.5%), based on those cards. But in reality, you are even with the house (remember it was started at a -2% advantage). So this is where I am confused. You are saying unseen cards are unseen cards, but based on that and this scenario if that were the case, I would be betting thinking I had a 1.5% advantage when in reality I didn't.

Also, if it is feasible to simply play midshoe without back counting, why do many people prefer to "wong in" and backcount, or play minimal until the count goes high?

I suppose the scenario above could be the reverse, and the count could be really high when coming in mid shoe, but then you would be betting short (Not as high as you optimally would be).

Trying to learn, and I really appreciate the help. Thank you.

I think you might be confusing yourself with your estimate of your advantage after you enter and you see "a lot of low cards come out in a couple hands". You should be estimating your TC based on the unseen cards which includes the cards left in the shoe plus the cards in the discard tray that you didn't back count. That's why entering after two decks are played and unseen, in an 8D shoe with 2 decks cut off, is the same as entering an 8D game with 4 decks cut off. If you're just considering the remaining cards in the shoe, you will be incorrectly estimating the TC.

The ideaj behind back counting and jumping in only when the count is high enough to indicate a player advantage is to bet zero when you are at a disadvantage. Jumping in mid shoe without back counting means you are jumping in with no information, and that is the same as entering at the beginning of the shoe.

Hi. Thanks for the post. I understand what you are saying when you say "Jumping in mid shoe without back counting means you are jumping in with no information, and that is the same as entering at the beginning of the shoe."

Let's say I do jump in mid shoe, 2 decks already played, cut off card is 2 decks behind, so that leaves 4 decks left to play before cut card. So essentially if I jump in mid shoe, I am playing an 8 deck game with 50% pen. I get that.

What I don't get is even knowing this, how am I getting an accurate count at anytime throughout this shoe if I am jumping in mid way?

Let's say at that point in time I jump in mid shoe, most of the high cards have been played and the advantage is -3%. Yet here I come, start my count as if I am almost even with the house, low cards come out like crazy, I think I'm at say a 1.5% advantage, when in reality I'm at about a -1% advantage. Here I am thinking high cards are coming and betting accordingly, when in reality they have mostly been played. I would know this if I played from the beginning of the shoe, but since it is mid shoe, I don't. So with this in mind, how can jumping in mid shoe be a feasible thing to do? If it is, then why bother counting from the beginning? or back counting from the sidelines?

Sure I know it could go opposite, and all the low cards could have been played, but then I wouldn't be betting optimally.

Should I just start off counting as if there is a -1.5% advantage and if it goes up, great?

You keep on saying you get it, and you seem to, but then you keep on asking the same question. You should not bet at the table mid-shoe unless you are back-counting and you know there is a positive count. If the casino is so crowded that you have to sit at the next empty seat, do so and bet the minimum. The hardcore among us would even say don't do it then.

You can't assume anything about the cards that have already been played and that you haven't back counted, so there is nothing you can do about it if either a bunch of high cards, or low cards, came out. Your count from the moment you enter the game is what you have for information. Your real concern should be that you're playing a shoe with only 50% penetration, and the opportunities for advantageous situations will be much lower, and thus your EV will suffer. Imagine starting an 8D shoe from the beginning, with the cut card placed halfway through the pack . Your scenario of entering after 2 decks are played and 2 decks cut off is the same.

To answer your question, jumping in mid shoe without back counting provides no advantage, so an AP wouldn't do that unless they had other information e.g., shuffle tracking, team play, etc. Maybe you've heard of some of these other plays and are confusing them with straight solo counting?

Revereman, you said something that spells it out in black and white: "You should not bet at the table mid-shoe unless you are back-counting and you know there is a positive count.".

Based on the other posts from other people, it sounded as if they were saying "It's OK to enter mid-shoe, just make believe the discard cards weren't played and you'll be fine".... Which is not the case, obviously, unless you back counted those cards or have another player signal you the count. That is where the confusion was.

Bottom line, you can't just blindly, randomly, enter a game mid shoe without knowing the count, unless you're playing other ways such as peeking, weak dealer, spooking, etc... Which I am well aware of. Thanks.

Nobody told you anything wrong here. The main point is that mid shoe entry affects penetration and makes it less likely that the shoe will become interesting.
But if you step up to a table and the whole layout is covered with small cards it would be foolish not to bet the next round on the grounds that there were probably a lot of high cards among the previously played cards.This might be the case but the best bet is that those missing high cards are evenly distributed among all the unseen cards. In other words: advantage!

Francis Salmon

then it is exactly the same as though they were behind the cut card. You cannot assume anything about cards you have not yet seen except that on average knowing nothing else on the first hand they have a net value of 0.

Thank you Francis for your input. I didn't say anyone said anything wrong, per-se.

I'm also not necessarily saying not to bet if there are alot of small cards out. What I am saying, and understanding, is that entering mid-shoe without knowing what was played in the discard tray will not give you a true accurate count at that particular point in time unless you back counted what was played, or get a signal of the count from another player; And by not being able to get a true accurate count at that point in time, and after the fact, you will not be playing/betting efficiently/as correctly as you can. That is right, correct?

Let's say that in my ficticious example you get an RC of +15. You just have to divide by the number of unseen decks which is 7.5 here and you get the correct TC : +2!

Francis Salmon

If just before you walked up to the table, the dealer took the cards from the discard tray and put them behind the cut card without you knowing it, what would you have? Since you did not know about the previous plays would it not appear to be the beginning of a 50% cut shoe game? If you sat down and played,what would the correct count be to start that 50% game?

The problem is you know that it is a 75% cut shoe game and you missed seeing the first 25% of the cards that you COULD have seen if you were there at the start of the shoe. From that point on the game has changed (for you) from an unknown count of a 75% game to the start of a 50% game with a count of zero.

Hope that helps.

That is a great illustration, and it makes sense. Let me expand upon it though. So now we're at mid-shoe, 2 decks played, and they were made up of all high cards (mostly). The dealer takes those 2 decks played and puts them behind the cut card. Someone jumps in "mid shoe" now, and sees all low cards cards coming out and the count goes through the roof (so he thinks).

The players at the table during the first 2 decks know better though and realize that the count has actually evened out back to zero. The new player starts betting higher as if he has a TC of, let's say 5, when in reality those high cards are not going to come as he expects because they have already been played. It's essentially the same as say a crooked casino taking out high cards. So how in this case does a mid shoe player have just as an accurate TC as the beginning players?

I understand your analogy on if the dealer took those first 2 decks played, put them in behind the cut card, and a new player thinking it's a 50% pen game. Makes sense. But as compared to the players who played from the beginning of the shoe, they have more reliable information and the TC to the mid shoe player is not as accurate as theirs. It can't be, as the beginning players know what has been played and what is never coming out again.

What I am saying is take two players, one who started counting from the beginning, and one who started counting mid shoe. The beginning counter has more accurate info simply because he knows what has been played and what is never coming out.

Extreme example, but say the first 2 decks played were made up of 104 ten value cards. Then what? Beginning players know, but mid shoe players don't.

What I am saying is take two players, one who started counting from the beginning, and one who started counting mid shoe. The beginning counter has more accurate info simply because he knows what has been played and what is never coming out.

And a hole card player has better information than a player at the same table who cannot see the hole card. It's silly to enter a count game mid-shoe. Just wait for the new shoe. Why is this discussion even happening?

If your point is counting from the beginning of the shoe provides that player with more information about what's left, compared to entering midway with no information, then I think you are right, but so what?

The idea is to minimize playing in negative or neutral situations. The player who plays and counts from the beginning of the shoe has to bet at least the table minimum as they accumulate information, and withstand the normal variance of playing in both positive and negative counts. The back counter bets zero until the count indicates an advantage. Without any count information or other information, anyone entering the game midway through the shoe is just playing a 50% penetration 8D game, which we seem to agree is just stupid.

So having more information, by itself, doesn't mean you're playing at a higher EV. you still have to pick the right situations to play and spread your bet appropriately.

1. Backcount, or play all if you have the bank for the required spread, but do it from the beginning of the shoe, so you maximize the number of cards seen.
2. No matter how you slice it, 50 percent pen is to be avoided.

if you walk up to a table with 2 decks in the discard tray seeing nothing else you know the running count at that point seeing nothing...it's ZERO with a TC of ZERO.

Walk up to an eight deck game knowing nothing and noticing 2 Decks in the Discard Tray, 4 decks to play, 2 Decks Behind the Cut Card is the same exact thing as walking up to a fresh eight deck shoe with 4 decks cutoff.

Your initial question asked how to play the scenario you gave. From a math standpoint, you play it as if it is the start of a 50% pen 8deck game as all have said.

From a common sense approach all have said that it is a poor time for you to start playing that shoe. Not because others have more accurate info than you (which they do), but because you do not have the same info and have no choice but to play the game as the start of a poor 50% game. Will the more informed player(s) game be more accurate than yours? Yes,knowledge is power.

This is one reason there is team play.