i have a winning method of betting on baseball i call "Predicting the Unpredictable." the bad news about predicting the unpredictable is that you can't do it. nobody can. the good news is that neither can the sports book. baseball is a very unpredictable game. the outcome can hinge on an unusual error or a bad bounce. there are 3 types of lines usually posed on a baseball game. the first line is the overwhelming favorite usually going off at about -220. i have no interest in this. usually the book is right and the favorite looks like a crush but it doesn't pay enough to make up for the occasional loss and the dog doesn't win often enough. the 2nd type of line is a pick 'em where both teams are about - 105. this line doesn't interest me either. it usually seems about right and there is no edge to be had. the 3rd type of line is where it gets interesting. the favorite is put at about -140 or -150. the book is saying that the favorite has a significant advantage but not an overwhelming one. i would say that the book is right about 2 out 3 times. but about 1 out 3 times the game looks like a pick 'em to me and you can get a nice edge by betting the dog. i look at 2 key statistics - home/away and pitching. in pitching i look at won/loss and era and whip and i focus intently on the pitchers' last 3 games. if the dog has a significant advantage either in pitching or in home/away i'll bet the dog. i believe a person can win this type of bet about 50% of the time and have a nice edge. its not that difficult or time consuming. it helps if you are a fan of baseball and know the game. the best website in my opinion for displaying info on the matchups is covers.com although they have annoying popup ads. good luck.
