Dumb Q, re: placing cut card

I don't claim to be an expert on this.

Let's say you see a Ten on the back of an 8-deck shoe. Do you try to cut deep and push this card to the front? Estimate the number of cards til it emerges. I'm very bad on calling it the 50th card vs 60th card, etc. So, I don't get much value out of doing this. Early in the shoe, you normally won't have a +EV count (independent of this stray Ten).

Is it better to just cut to the middle and know there is an "extra" ten waiting for you. More likely to have a +EV count mid-deck. So, a multi-unit bet may come home to roost.

I know it's a dumb Q. Any experienced player response is appreciated.

1 extra 10 value card in any 1/4 deck segment regardless of where it is in the shoe adds +4 to your True Count. That's worth 2.08% over the basic strategy expectation regardless of whether you can steer it to a specific hand. That's usually worth 3/5 of your standard max bet and being able to make a bet like that early in the shoe has substantial cover value on top of the EV from the play.

It should be considered as a known ten valued card. Not a extra ten. So the more accurate you are in estimating it's placement will give you more advantage depending on how you play.

I am assuming that in your play you are seeing the bottom card more than would be expected. Adding to big player's comments, I suggest practicing deck estimation so that you can nail it very close. To help in this, try getting the cut card every time you see an ace or 10 on the bottom, then cut exactly two decks from the bottom, for easy estimation. Better yet, 1.5 decks or one deck if smaller cuts are allowed. That will make it easier to time it precisely. The ace is of course much more valuable than a 10, but off the top of my head I don't remember exactly how much anymore. I would put out a max bet when the ace is about to come out. Regarding small cards, cut them out of play if possible, otherwise to the front just like a 10, and consider a strategy adjustment when it is coming up. If you know there is a 5 about to be played, hit that 16 vs 10 in a plus count, or avoid the double if it is already a close play, etc. You should consider the TC before doing this.
Back in the good old single deck days, Fitzgerald's in Reno and Nevada Lodge on Tahoe's north shore both had dealers who would show the bottom card as the deck was presented for cutting. They used a cut card so it was easy to maneuver the 10s and aces to play in the second round (once you learned). Early in my experience, I cut an ace on the bottom to the dealer's last card, first round. Dealer got BJ. The other player at the table was beyond pissed. He told me in colorful language that he had never seen anyone cut the ace to the dealer like that. He had put a big bet out after the cut, probably hoping the ace was coming his way, but I cut it too thin. I had a little bet out, which was my second mistake. I never made those mistakes again!

But cutting a known exposed 10 to any 1/4 Deck segment adds 2.08% to that entire segment whether you know for sure that you will get the 10 or not (as long as both of your cards come from that segment). Obviously if you can narrow down the 10 from just being in a given 13 card segment to a specific card and target it to your hand (for sure) you're getting much bigger edges.

For example, if you can cut precisely 52 cards you can just count down from 52 and then make sure you play as many hands as you need to get the 10 to land on your hand. If you can't cut 52 cards but know that the 10 is in a narrow segment you do get a good advantage, just not a huge one.

...lies in the precision cut, because unless you can steer that ten to your hand it really doesn't help much. After all, it could be in a horribly negative slug.

Don't you agree?

but this show the bottom card business was done by probably half of the dealers at the Nevada Lodge, had been going on for a long time and still was a year later. It was no doubt intentional and obviously somewhat tolerated by management, but hard to understand. They were a nickel place and attracted terrible players. That guy was a regular, obviously retired, and not counting, but was fond of aces. The dealer seemed to be amused and the PC hardly paid any attention. It was about 1980.

Yes, I see the bottom card quite a bit. As mentioned above, I cut deep when Ace/Ten - pushes the good card to about 50 off the top.

Cut thin when 3-6 on bottom, pushing low card (hopefully) out of play at the back.

21 is an information. Any sneak-peaks at extra cards (bottom, burn cards) is helpful.

This never happens to me. But I had dealer double-expose recently when I had a big bet out. Ten/Ten for me, vs dealer 3. But she exposed 10 as under card for 13. I split into four stacks, and she did bust.

Can you or anyone else cut exactly to 52 cards ?

Whether it hits your hand or not it's still worth at least an extra 2% in a 13 card segment. It's a +1 RC card in a 1/4 Deck that makes it worth +4 added to the TC for that segment. You should be cutting it to an early part of the shoe so while the actual TC may be higher or lower it shouldn't be that much higher or lower. Of course whether it's an Ace or a Ten and whether you can steer it to a hand your control can give you a far bigger edge than the standard 2%, but even this basic steering technique can allow you to make a maximum bet early in a shoe when the visible count does not call for it.

I still have a six deck stack of cards sitting in a discard rack sitting on my coffee table. Watching NFL on Sunday I will sit there and practice cutting.

More important than cutting exactly 52 cards is knowing how many cards you cut after the fact. You have to be able to try to cut 52 cards and know if you are off by 4 or 5 cards either way after you do it. In the real world with the dealer holding the cards tightly at weird angles to you sometimes cutting 52 cards is difficult. That's OK if you know how many cards you actually did cut.

Suppose, playing head-on with the dealer, on the very next hand, I know that a Ten will be either the first or second card dealt, but, unfortunately, I don't know which. So, on the next round, either the dealer's first card will be a ten, or mine will be.

Should I be happy? Should I bet more?

Don

I bet Don knows the answer and is testing us. Off the top of my head, bet more for two reasons. 1. This is like having extra 10's that either can get, but player gets the potential bj bonus.
2. If player does not get the 10 and it is not the dealer up card, you know the hole card. That could be a hell of an insurance bet, even if the count does not call for it.

"I bet Don knows the answer and is testing us."

Yes, I do! :-)

"Off the top of my head, bet more for two reasons. 1. This is like having extra 10's that either can get, but player gets the potential bj bonus."

But, is that enough?

"2. If player does not get the 10 and it is not the dealer up card, you know the hole card. That could be a hell of an insurance bet, even if the count does not call for it."

That's a good point, but it wasn't my intent. I meant for the ten to go to the player, as his/her first card, or to the dealer, as his upcard. My fault for not being clearer.

Don

We're going to have some fun, guys. It isn't often that I can write to tell you that what I'm about to discuss has probably never before been treated in any of the BJ literature, or on any website. It is a follow-up to the above discussion.

So, here is the premise: Consider the ten ranks from Ace to Ten. You play head-on against the dealer, and, one by one, a card of each rank is presented for you and the dealer to fight over. The winner gets to choose if he wants the card or if he wants to give it to the other person. If the player gets it, it becomes the first card of his two-card original hand. If the dealer gets it, it becomes his upcard.

The "fight" consists of flipping a coin to see if the dealer or the player gets the choice. Again, the winner gains the right to keep the card for himself or to give it to the other person.

Now, in every single case, except one, what is good for one person is bad for the other. For example, if we're fighting over the Ten, in our previous discussion, the dealer will surely want it for his upcard, and the player will want it for his first card. The question, though, is: to which person is the Ten more advantageous?
Is it positive e.v. to the player to be fighting over this card?

To answer questions such as this, we need two lists: one with the advantage to the player for starting his hand with the particular rank, and another, with the same informationfor the dealer's having the rank as his upcard. The former list has been published before, and it can be found, for example, on p. 112 (Table 30) of Wong's Basic Blackjack. But the second list is much harder to find. It can be deduced from the bottom of the chart on p. 83, in the long-out-of-print How to Play Winning Blackjack, by Julian Braun, but there is a mistake for the Ace.

I asked Norm to provide a modern-day version for the six-deck S17, DAS game, and it can be found here: http://www.qfit.com/Don895.png

Just look at the bottom "Tot" line. So, now we have all we need to answer the question of which cards the player should want to fight over, and which will actually be negative e.v. The findings are rather interesting and are certainly not what you would call instantly intuitive.

Pass on the Ten!! It has +14.3% e.v. for the player but -17.31% for him when it is the dealer's upcard. Together, that's -3% x 50% = -1.5% e.v. for the player to be "fighting" over who gets the Ten.

I'm sure it's clear to everyone that the Ace is the prize. It's worth 50.5% to the player and "only" 34.14% to the dealer. Overall, that's +8.2% for the good guys (remember, each person has 50% chance of getting the card).

So, now, what about the other eight ranks? What indeed! Which cards should the player want to fight for?? First, it is interesting to note that, of the eight ranks that are left (2-9), only TWO have positive e.v. for the player! And, in every case but one, the player would want to give the card to the dealer, and the dealer would want to give the card to the player! Can you guess what the exception is?

While the e.v. for the player for this card is negative in BOTH cases (he loses no matter who gets it), it's worse if the player gives it to the dealer than if he keeps it for himself -- even though he loses either way.

So, that's question #1. Question #2 is: of the remaining seven ranks, which are the only two that are worth it to the player to fight for?

I'll let you discuss this for a while and will be back later with the answers and all the e.v.s for every rank.

Enjoy!

Don

you can force the 10 to be the dealers first hit card (dealer third card). The advantage is over 100% when you do this. Not saying it is easy to do. :-)

Play two hands and bet big.

... and no one wants to take a crack at either question????

Come on, guys!

Don