Or better yet, click the basic strategy tab to the left, which will direct you to the basic strategy calculator at blackjackinfo.com.
You're right if it's H17.
"Today's basic strategy is backed up by probably billions of hands of computer simulation."
-not even necessary to use RNG's. Even in the days of Thorp and Braun's computer work, they did complete combinatorial analysis. Splitting was the exception though, as the cases were too exponential.
Your character is showing.
Your insisting on this theme - even after the evidence was there - literally called for an ironic remark.
I have followed your posts and they seem rather hostile. I understand that you are seeking the best advantage. You are not wrong for that as all AP players try to do that.
Sometimes the best AP play is not the best play based on circumstances. DD on A8 is
a play that may look like you know something and bring attention to yourself. Your gain on this play is possitive but hardly worth the exposure since you only get this hand approx. 96 times in every 100,000 hands (approx 2 years). When you do double your gain is approx. 47 units. When the TC is +10 your gain is approx. 80 units in every 100,000 hands. Soft doubles do not gain that much and in live casino play if you do not soft double at all you are not giving up much EV but you are getting much expected future play.
I think some of the plays in a positive or negative count(s) that are deviations from basic strategy would tend to bring more attention than the doubling down of soft hands.
Your gain on this play is possitive but hardly worth the exposure since you only get this hand approx. 96 times in every 100,000 hands (approx 2 years).
You must not play very often.
96 times every 100,000 is about once every 10 to 11 hours.
However, I think your math is wrong. According to bjstats.com, the HiLo TC is +1 or higher about 26.5% of the time (6 deck). According to bjmath.com, A,8v6 or A,8v5 comes up about 0.18% of the time. So for a S17 game, you should double about once every 49 in 100,000 hands (once every 20 to 21 hours).
Not long ago, I doubled A,8v6 on one hand followed by A,8 v 5 on the next. I got a ten on one hand and a deuce in the other, winning both hands. Another player became very upset because in both cases the dealer would have busted had I not doubled. He spent the next 15 minutes "abusing" me for not knowing basic strategy (it was an H17 game). I had a great time.
Maybe I am wrong in reading my charts but to play 100,00 hands at 60 hands per hour takes 1,666.6 hours. If you play at 100 hands per hour it would take 1,000 hours to log that many hands. The 2 years is an approximation of how many hours a player would have to play at 15 hrs per week.
Stop focusing on the 100,000 hands and realize that you don't get A,8 vs. 5 or 6 just once in those 100,000 hands!!
Don
Sorry Don you may have misread.. but my original post said:
"you only get this hand approx. 96 times in every 100,000 hands (approx 2 years). When you do double your gain is approx. 47 units."
In other words..you only get this hand approximately 96 times every 2 years worth of play. (100,000 hands)(approx 15 hrs of play per week @ approx 60 hands/hr).
Don:
I agree with you. They seem to come in clusters (or at least that's been my experience). I can think of five times I've stood on my A8 vs 5/6 in the last month. And if my memory serves me well, I won three, pushed one, and lost one to a five card 21.
So, your goal was to tell us how long it takes to get 96 hands?? What sense would that make? No one expresses a statistic that way.
If I tell you that a hand occurs 100 times in 100,000 hands, what's the point in saying it like that? Say that you get the hand once every 1,000 hands, or, about once every ten hours. What's the point in telling us that it will take two years to get 96 of them? Who cares?
Don
Soft doubling can attract more attention than changes in BS. You call attention to the hand when doubling becaue you are exposing your decision. Most players don't double on soft hands. Ok some do... but hands like A7 or A8 they don't. A2 through A5 is seen even more seldom. My point is that soft doubling makes you look like you read a book. They might say "watch that player". If you don't make that double and they are watching then they might say "that player didn't double..it's a basic strategy play..I would have doubled..that player isn't that good". Thereby buying you lots of time. Doubling on soft hands gets you about an extra .1%. You can easily gain more than double that amount just by betting an extra chip in favorable situations. I am not saying to disregard soft doubles but to use wise judgment when doing so and to realize that you're not giving up much if you decide not to. The important decision is to stay in business.
Playing Blackjack As A Business page 71 Chart B-21 and page 70 chart B-20. Then compare with page 139 charts F-19 & page 138 chart F-18. " These..charts show you everything that will happen in a Blackjack game. You will be able to learn many things from these charts.". (L.Revere)
Is it that you don't want to understand, or that you're just stubborn?
We all understand the numbers. We're trying to explain to you that when someone says that you get a hand 100 times in 100,000, it's a foolish and misleading tactic to then use that 100,000, which is simply a statistical way of expressing the idea, to state that, well, we're talking about two years worth of play!
I may just as well say that we get the hand 1,000 times out of 1,000,000, and that it will take 20 years to achieve! WHAT'S THE POINT?
You get the hand once in 1,000 deals, or, roughly, once every 10 hours. The rest is just hyperbole.
Don
"Your gain on this play is positive but hardly worth the exposure since you only get this hand approx. 96 times in every 100,000 hands (approx 2 years). When you do double your gain is approx. 47 units."
Don,
Sincerely trying not to be misleading or not wanting to understand...but hyperbole? yes..A figure of speech in which exaggeration is used for emphasis or effect.
OK I'll accept your explanation. It is better. My point still is valid because the hand comes up infrequently and the gain is so small that it is hardly worth the exposure in many circumstances. The gain is 47 units every 100K hands and you make the play 96 times. That translates to +.49/unit every time the play is made. One would have to make this play approx. 2 times to realize a gain of 1 unit EV. So with your explanation a gain of 1 unit EV is made approx. every 20 hours assuming 100 hands per hour. I guess that with a big enough unit it would be worth it to make the play for the gain but then again is the attention factor in real play.
RE-STATED:
Your gain on this play is positive but hardly worth the exposure since you only get this hand approximately once every 1,000 hands (approx 10+ hours). When you do double your EV is approx .489 units.
